ASSESSING RUSSIA’S SPACE COOPERATION WITH CHINA AND INDIA Opportunities and Challenges for Europe Report 12, June 2008 Charlotte MATHIEU, ESPI DISCLAIMER This Report has been prepared for the client in accordance with the associated contract and ESPI will accept no liability for any losses or damages arising out of the provision of the report to third parties. Short Title: ESPI Report 12, June 2008 Editor, Publisher: ESPI European Space Policy Institute A-1030 Vienna, Schwarzenbergplatz 6 Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel.: +43 1 718 11 18 - 0 Fax - 99 Copyright: © ESPI, June 2008 Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “source: © ESPI Report 12, June 2008. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. Price: 11,00 EUR Printed by ESA/ESTEC Layout and Design: M. A. Jakob/ESPI and Panthera.cc Ref.: C/20490-003-P13 Report 12, June 2008 2 Russia’s Space Cooperation with China and India Assessing Russia’s Space Cooperation with China and India – Opportunities and Challenges for Europe Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….... 8 1. Russia in 2008.................................................................................................... 9 1.1. A stronger economy……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 1.2. An economy very dependent on the energy sector…………………………………………………… 10 1.3. Political stability…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 12 1.4. A new posture and the evolution towards a more balanced foreign policy……………… 12 2. Russia and Space……………………………………………………………………………………… 14 2.1. Space as a strategic asset…………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 2.2. Impact of Russia’s evolution on its space cooperation ……………………………………………… 16 3. Cooperation in the triangle Russia-India-China……………………………………………. 18 3.1. What is at stake? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 18 3.1.1. The significance and rising influence of the three great EurAsian powers… 18 3.1.2. Growing weight in space ………………………………………………………………………………… 19 3.1.3. Relations between Russia and the two great rising Asian powers ……………. 19 3.2. Russia and China: complex and cautious relations…………………………………………………… 19 3.2.1. The broader context of cooperation between Russia and China………………… 20 3.2.2. China and space…………………………………………………………………………………………… 21 3.2.3. Cooperation in space ………………………………………………………………………………… 22 3.3. Russia and India: enduring but non-exclusive relations…………………………………………… 22 3.3.1. The broader context of cooperation between Russia and India………………… 22 3.3.2. India and space …………………………………………………………………………………………… 23 3.3.3. Cooperation in space…………………………………………………………………………………… 23 3.4. A strategic triangle Russia-India-China? …………………………………………………………………… 24 3.4.1. The broader context of a strategic triangle………………………………………………… 24 3.4.2. Cooperation in space…………………………………………………………………………………… 26 4. Consequences for Europe………………………………………………………………………….. 27 4.1. Russia-Europe: long-lasting relations with ups and downs………………………………………… 27 4.1.1. The broader context of cooperation between Russia and Europe……………… 27 4.1.2. Consequences for Europe of Russia’s more balanced foreign policy ………… 28 4.2. Cooperation in space…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 28 4.2.1. Europe-Russia cooperation in space…………………………………………………………… 28 4.2.2. Impact of the evolution of Russia’s relations with India and China ………… 30 4.3. Opportunities and challenges for Europe in its cooperation with Russia ………………… 30 4.3.1. Opportunities for Europe……………………………………………………………………………… 30 4.3.2. Challenges for Europe………………………………………………………………………………… 31 4.3.3. Access to Space…………………………………………………………………………………………… 32 4.3.4. Navigation…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 35 4.3.5. Manned spaceflight, space science and exploration ………………………………… 38 4.4. Conclusions ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 43 Annexes Annex A Fact Sheets on Russia, China and India……………………………………………………………… 45 Annex B Space in the Russian Federation…………………………………………………………………………… 53 Annex C Chronologies of Russia’s Space Cooperation with China and India …………………… 81 Annex D Chronologies of Russia’s Space Activities and of European-Russian Cooperation 91 Annex E Space in the EU-Russia Common Spaces’ Road Maps………………………………………… 95 Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………………………… 102 European Space Policy Institute 3 Report 12, June 2008 Report 12, June 2008 4 Russia’s Space Cooperation with China and India EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Russia is historically and technologically a Russian economy has to overcome several world leader in space. It is also a strategic challenges to sustain its current growth partner for Europe. Since the nineties, Russia including demographic issues and its strong has changed and its partnerships have dependence on oil and gas exports, which evolved. This transformation strongly impacts requires a diversification of the economy. the space field and the country’s space With the improvement of the overall situation cooperation. Russia and Europe have of the country, the Russian leadership has structured and increased their cooperation in gradually adopted a more confident posture the last decade, and some Europeans are on the international scene. Moscow is using advocating closer cooperation with Russia economic and political means to increase and even a joint strategy for the Russia’s influence and is at the same time development of their space activities. At the building up an image of a committed and same time, Russia has reinforced its responsible international power. This new cooperation with the two fastest growing attitude is coupled with an evolution of space-faring nations, India and China. The Russia’s foreign policy towards a question therefore arises: to which extent multidirectional, more balanced and could Russia’s stronger cooperation with pragmatic strategy, with, in particular, an India and China affect future Europe-Russia active promotion of cooperation with its Asian cooperation? neighbours. This study first reviews the current situation of Russia and the evolution of the country’s space activities and cooperation. It then investigates the relations between Russia and Russia and Space the two largest Asian countries, India and China, the overall context of those relations These general trends are reflected in the as well as their space cooperation. It space field. After a golden age, the space examines the possible consequences of the sector severely suffered from a lack of evolution of those relations for Europe, and in interest and funding during the nineties. particular, evaluates the potential impact on Today, Russia has to re-build its space its space activities and on its cooperation capabilities and to transform its space sector. with the Russian partner. Finally it concludes The space sector has recently got a new with recommended actions to be taken by impetus from the Russian leadership which European decision-makers in order to has the will and means to further develop maximise opportunities and minimise risks in and diversify Russian space activities. Space this changing environment. is now back on Moscow’s strategic agenda for political and economic reasons, and is supported at the highest political level. The Russian leadership wants to fully use this key Russia in 2008 industrial asset and regain control over it. Ambitious programmes that cover the whole Russia is recovering from the severe crisis it spectrum of space activities have been suffered after the end of the Soviet Union and adopted, the funding has been increased and is regaining its political clout. After its the industry is being reorganized to improve collapse in the nineties, the economy has its competitiveness. However, there are now returned to its 1990 level and its many challenges to be addressed in this financial position has dramatically improved. sector, including human resources, This economic resurgence, based on its regulatory, financial, organizational and energy sector, was made possible by the technological challenges. This new situation renewed political stability as well as by led to an evolution of Russia’s space political and economic reforms. However the cooperation. Russia remains open to European Space Policy Institute 5 Report 12, June 2008 cooperation, but wants its partnerships to Those relations are complex and cautious. In better reflect its interests and to serve its the past years, both countries have focused technological needs. The recent shift towards less on their differences than on pragmatic a more balanced foreign policy also led to the rationales for their cooperation. Trade is diversification of its partnerships in the space developing but asymmetrically, and Russia domain. Russia’s attitude to its traditional remains very wary because it perceives China partners has changed and it is now looking as a potential threat to its interests. Both for new partners for strategic and commercial countries have very different rationale for reasons. Another major development is the cooperating, but share some similar views strengthening of its cooperation with the and concerns. Their space cooperation has quickly-rising space-faring nations, in been central to the development of the particular China and India. Chinese space programme. After Russia helped China building its first missile, cooperation was suspended after the Sino- Soviet split