Greater Manchester The Engine Driving the Powerhouse? April 2016 Executive Summary This Report provides an overview of Greater Greater Manchester’s history: Manchester’s remarkable growth in recent years; the City Region’s likely role as the driving force How have we got to this point, behind the Northern Powerhouse initiative; and and where are we going? why this is important for ‘UK Plc’. It explores The transformation Greater Manchester has the responsibilities and likely policy shifts that undergone over the last two decades cannot be Greater Manchester needs to deliver this growth, overstated. Since the Arndale bombing in 1996, looking at lessons from successful City-regions Greater Manchester has risen to become one of elsewhere in Europe, before summarising how the few effective counter-weights to the economic progressive planning can help facilitate and provide might of London and the Greater South-East. A the platform for Greater Manchester’s continued strong political will and a desire to reinvent the renaissance. City Region sowed the seeds for today’s economic performance as well as future devolved benefits. The Challenges of being at This powerful performance is set to continue for the the forefront of the Northern foreseeable future. Powerhouse In order to maintain this strong performance, Greater Manchester’s recent history represents a Greater Manchester must build on a plethora of key success story of a City Region transformed from resources including a globally renowned University; one of post-industrial decline towards a smart, a youthful and energetic demographic profile and diversified and high-growth economy that has its close proximity to other large cities in the North transformed perceptions of the area as a place which creates a larger labour market and greater to live and work. As a result, Greater Manchester flexibility. has become a figurehead for regeneration and economic growth for the North. However despite Greater Manchester’s planning Greater Manchester’s resurgence it is still punching below its weight in a number of key areas, including and housing strategy skills, state dependency and productivity levels, The emerging Greater Manchester Spatial which mirrors wider problems across the north of Framework [GMSF], which will set the agenda for England more generally. planning across the City Region, aims for population growth of 0.5% annually; 0.7% for jobs; 0.8% for In an effort to overcome these issues, Chancellor dwellings; and 2.7% for GVA growth. There is a George Osborne proposed the creation of clear strategic disconnect between the Northern a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ - not one city, but Powerhouse growth ambitions and the suppressed metaphorically joining together a collection of housing and economic analysis at the heart of northern cities and in so doing, providing a powerful the emerging GMSF. If Greater Manchester is to counterbalance to the dominance of London underpin the Northern Powerhouse, driving growth and the South East. As a shining light of the and reducing national inequalities as envisaged by Government’s devolution process with the most the Government, the GMSF must be more pro- successful economy in northern England and an active in supporting economic growth and provide a area likely to be one of the major beneficiaries of clear vision for boosting housing provision to service the Government’s infrastructure investment, Greater a new, highly skilled, workforce. Manchester will have a crucial role in driving forward the Northern Powerhouse. Greater Manchester ii Greater Manchester’s future 3. A high degree of fiscal autonomy; 4. A pro-active approach towards development For the North West’s growth rate to be raised from the City leadership, with the provision of to that of the UK as a whole, then an additional high levels of aspirational housing to change the 503,970 jobs would need to be created (net) over nature of the market; the period 2014-2035, 155,160 higher than the baseline. If Greater Manchester bears the burden 5. A flourishing service sector economy leading to of this additional job growth, then the City Region agglomeration benefits; would need to see annual average employment 6. Substantial levels of investment in intra-city growth rates of 1.0%. This rate of growth does not transport infrastructure; and, appear unreasonable, given that it is below the 1.2% average annual growth rate achieved since 7. Across a wider region, cities working together 1999. For this level of growth to be a realistic for a common overall goal, whilst retaining their prospect, key infrastructure investment is required, own specialisms and expansion agendas. particularly in transport and housing. What needs to change? Manchester’s planned level of housing growth in The Northern Powerhouse is a much broader the emerging GMSF - at 0.8% annually - falls well concept than simply jobs and economic growth. below other comparable Cities in the UK including It is about education & skills, investment, transfer Leeds, Bradford and Sheffield and is below even of powers through devolution and quality of life. the national average of 0.9%, which risks the City Greater Manchester can lead the way as it has in Region falling behind the rest of the country. the past, but the emerging GMSF risks missing this opportunity by pursuing conservative levels of Given the scale of the issue and the need housing and employment growth well below many for homes in a variety of locations across the cities elsewhere in the UK, notably London, Leeds conurbation, there will be a need for Green Belt and Liverpool. release. NLP’s demographic modelling suggests that delivering 1.0% job growth annually would require a Developers need to be confident that the GMSF step change in the amount of housing provision that will facilitate growth over the long term, and be the GMSF would need to provide, from the 10,350 provided with a sufficiently ambitious Plan that dpa currently being proposed, to the 16,643 dpa encourages investment decisions to be made that needed to sustain the local economy at 1% growth. will allow Manchester to compete in the global A failure to pursue the higher target would lead to marketplace. The scale of housing needed will very substantial opportunity costs of missed job require a wide variety of sites coming forward growth opportunities, GVA, New Homes Bonus and across Greater Manchester, including Green Belt Council Tax. land releases. Lessons from elsewhere However, strong leadership and increased devolved powers means that Greater Manchester is very Greater Manchester’s success is certainly not well placed to take the positive steps needed for unique. Comparisons with other similar cities sustainable growth as it has in the recent past. elsewhere in Europe, such as Dortmund and The emerging GMSF must better reflect these Nantes, presents clear lessons and common opportunities and ensure that the gap between the themes we can draw from and apply to Greater ambitious rhetoric of devolution and the reality of Manchester going forward, including: the under-whelming housing and economic growth 1. Strong, but flexible, devolved local governance targets are reconciled. arrangements; 2. A clear vision for growth, and understanding your target market; The Engine Driving the Powerhouse? iii Introduction This Report has been produced to provide The document examines lessons from an overview of Greater Manchester’s successful city regions elsewhere in remarkable growth in recent years; the Europe before summarising how a more City Region’s likely role as the driving force ambitious GMSF can help facilitate and behind the Northern Powerhouse initiative provide the platform necessary for Greater and why this is important for ‘UK Plc’. It Manchester’s continued renaissance. explores the responsibilities and likely policy shifts that Greater Manchester1 needs to deliver this growth, and in particular the extent to which there is a significant gap between the ambitious rhetoric of Greater Manchester devolution and the reality of the overly cautious emerging GMSF2. Greater Manchester 1 1. Greater Manchester’s Present - The Challenge of Being at the Forefront of the Northern Powerhouse Greater Manchester’s recent history represents a As recently as 1993, the population of London success story of a City Region transformed from and the North West was broadly identical, yet due one of post-industrial decline towards a smart, to the attractiveness of the capital to migrants, diversified and high growth economy that have London’s population has since grown by 1.7 million transformed perceptions of the area as a place to people, almost 6-times the North West’s growth. live and work: This is projected to continue into the future - by 2037 London is forecast to have 3 million more “Factories have been replaced by hospitality inhabitants than the entire North West region. There and leisure, but also important agglomerations is a strong link between the size of an economy of high-tech and knowledge based industries. and improved productivity levels, which leads to 4 This transformation is visible in terms of the increased wages and prosperity . physical appearance of the city – the warehouse In terms of physical connectivity, the north has conversions, the trams, the shiny new buildings suffered from increasing fragmentation in recent and stadia – but also in terms of a resurgent years. The north of England pioneered rail travel, civic and cultural identify. Having once led the with the Liverpool and Manchester Railway being way as the word’s first industrial powerhouse, the world’s first mechanised public transport Manchester has reinvented itself as a truly system. However, many key northern rail routes now modern British City for the twenty-first Century”3. have slower services than in Victorian times - the Manchester to Liverpool route itself now takes 4 Greater Manchester has become a figurehead minutes longer now than it did in Victorian times5.