Crowds are made of people: Human factors in microscopic crowd models by Colin Marc Henein, B.C.S. A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Institute of Cognitive Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario, Canada August 2008 ©2008 Colin Marc Henein The undersigned hereby recommend to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research acceptance of the thesis “Crowds are made of people: Human factors in microscopic crowd models” Submitted by Colin Marc Henein, B.C.S. in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Tony White Tony White, Supervisor Andreas Schadschneider Andreas Schadschneider, External Examiner John Logan John Logan, Department Chair Carleton University August 2008 ii Abstract Crowds are physical aggregations of people.There has been an interest in modelling crowds in order to determine the microscopic basis for emergent crowd behaviours.To date, most microscopic models focus more on spatial/physical factors than on human behavioural factors (or vice versa). The isolation of these approaches to crowd dynamics more generally was criticised by Sime, who advocated a more integrated perspective. We identify microscopic human behaviour simulation, implemented at the heart of micro- scopic movement models, as a way to act on Sime’s concerns. We offer the Microscopic Human Factors methodology to guide this integration: describing (or describing a hypothesis for) a behaviour in the world, taking an individual perspective in describing the essential aspects of the behaviour, and tightly integrating these aspects within an appropriate microscopic formalism. We present three demonstrations of the methodology. We add to a prominent microscopic model simulations of voluntary pushing (and an accompanying simulation of force and safety), discovery/communication of spatial information, and front-to-back communication (which has not been previously formalised). Key findings of the demonstrations were that (i) limited numbers of agents (modelled individuals) at the rear of a crowd can cause injuries and jamming near the front by triggering and targeting the pushing and leaning forces of others, (ii) knowledge differences lead to behavioural heterogeneity that in highly driven crowds can provoke injuries (that can be resolved through communication) as agents work at cross-purposes; (iii) our conception of front-to-back communication allows agents to dynamically moderate the force in the model to reduce injuries (often at the cost of slower movement). The results of the second demonstration are related to a crowd disaster at Lenin Stadium, while the third demonstration includes a reconstruction of the Who concert disaster at Riverfront Coliseum. iii These demonstrations show the practicality and value of the method. Each generates inter- esting results, discussion, conclusions and future work. Each improves the model relative to Sime’s concerns. Each broadens the range of the model, allowing more complex scenarios to be represented.This shows the positive consequences of addressing Sime’s concerns in microscopic models: crowds truly are made of people. iv This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my great-uncle and grandparents: Leonard Lisgar Brown (1912–1995) Andrée Olga Henein (1916–2001) Edith Katherine Wight (1907–1995) Murray Ernest Wight (1911–2002) v Acknowledgments This thesis is the culmination of nine years of work on the Ph.D.— almost five of which have been spent directly on this project. In this time I have had the distinct good fortune to have been supported by many people, both inside and outside the university. I thank my co-workers at computerActive and Parliant Corporation for their infinite patience with my variable schedule — not to mention their tolerance of my split attention — during work on this project and on the coursework that preceded it. Their support, along with the support of my friends and fellow students (both in Cognitive Science and across the university) has been instrumental in completing this degree. As I cannot name you all I shall name none, but I thank you from the bottom of my heart! I acknowledge the contribution of the Carleton University Library; the collections, electronic resource and inter-library loans staff have enabled this research. I thank Dr. Keith Still for sending me many crowd videos, and for his informative Crowd Dynamics website. I thank Dr. John Chinneck for his “how to organize your thesis” which was invaluable in structuring this document. I am grateful to Dr. George Hadjisophocleous, Dr. Guylène Proulx, and the late Dr. Charles Gordon for taking the time to attend the 2004 seminar of an obscure graduate student in a different department, and for taking enough of an interest in my work to guide it, there and then, away from panic and toward human behaviour in crowds.I particularly thank Dr. Proulx for opening her door to me several times through the project, introducing me to important literature including the work of Dr. Jonathan Sime, and for allowing me to audit (read: derail) the lectures in her very valuable course on human behaviour in fire. vi I thank Dr. Tobias Kretz, Dr. Andreas Schadschneider and especially Dr. Katsuhiro Nishinari for warmly welcoming an isolated (and timid) modeller into the community of floor field modellers. Not only have I benefited from their interpretations of the work in the field, their encouragement and support at scientific meetings has truly sustained this work — and set a fine example of how science should be prosecuted. I thank very much the members of the panel that reviewed the proposal for this work: The careful attention of Drs. Andrew Brook, Babak Esfandiari and Robert West improved this project considerably. All urged me to consider the validity of microscopic models, and I particularly thank Dr. Brook in this regard for planting the seed that grew into the methodological part of this thesis (as well as for all he has done, as Chair of Cognitive Science, to facilitate my progress these past nine years). Dr. West suggested several interesting research directions regarding modelling of human behaviour in crowds and — while I regret that more of them did not find their way into this thesis — I hope there will be an opportunity to pursue them in the future. I especially thank my supervisor, Dr. Tony White, who had the strength to be passionate about this project for five years, even during the inevitable setbacks and worries along the way. His close supervision of the project, careful reading of the results and his research suggestions have greatly improved the work;I have very much enjoyed our stimulating weekly meetings. I am also appreciative of his generosity in funding three trips to present research at distant scientific meetings; he says the money never belonged to him, but I nevertheless appreciate his choice to spend it on this work. My family has been an important source of support throughout this degree.I especially thank my parents Kringen and Jean-Claude Henein whose unfailing support has been instrumental in reaching this point. Finally, I acknowledge the immeasurable contribution of my partner, Jen Schellinck, who has sustained and supported me substantially throughout most of this degree. Not only has she directly contributed by participating in our weekly meetings herself and by advising me in matters of research, her sure support in times of stress and her forbearance as I led a double life at work and school has been as invaluable as it has been appreciated.I cannot imagine how I could have finished this thesis and degree without her. Thank you. vii Copyright acknowledgments • Figure 29 is reproduced from (Johnson, 1987b, p. 366, fig. 1, ©1987 University of California Press). Used by kind permission of N. R.Johnson and University of California Press (the latter’s permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.). • We acknowledge the permission, through Elsevier’s general terms of publication, to prepare works derivative of (Henein & White, 2007, ©2006 Elsevier B.V.), excerpts of which appear in chapter 6 of this thesis. • Portions of chapter 7 are excerpted from (Henein & White, 2006, ©2006 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg). Reprinted by kind permission of Springer Science+Business Media. • Portions of chapter 8 are excerpted from (Henein & White, in press-a). Portions of chapter 4 are excerpted from (Henein & White, in press-b). Included by kind permission of Springer Science+Business Media. viii Table of Contents Abstract iii Acknowledgments vi Table of Contents ix List of Tables xiv List of Figures xv List of Algorithms xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The crowd . .1 1.1.1 Studying crowds . .1 1.1.2 Crowds are made of people . .3 1.1.3 People and microscopic models . .5 1.2 Research objective . .7 1.3 General approach . .8 1.3.1 Microscopic Human Factors . .8 1.3.2 Approach to demonstration . .9 1.3.3 Demonstrations of value . .9 1.4 Summary of contributions . 11 1.5 Overview of thesis structure . 11 ix 2 A brief review of crowds and crowd safety 14 2.1 Force and Injuries in Crowds . 14 2.1.1 Concept of levels of service, densities . 14 2.1.2 Effects of force: Jamming, Fruin, and Helbing’s paradoxes . 16 2.2 Selected crowd disasters . 18 2.2.1 Bethnal Green Underground Station . 19 2.2.2 Lenin Stadium, Moscow . 20 2.2.3 Who concert disaster . 21 2.3 The myth of panic . 24 2.4 Information in Crowds . 27 2.5 Summary . 28 3 Previous models, critique and problem 29 3.1 Review of previous models . 30 3.1.1 Microscopic crowd models . 30 3.1.2 Modelling frameworks . 33 3.1.3 Models distinguished by their psychological focus . 34 3.2 Critique of previous models . 37 3.2.1 Microscopic models .