Copyright by Edward James Fagan 2020 The Dissertation Committee for Edward James Fagan Certifies that this is the approved version of the following Dissertation Information Wars: Party Elites, Think Tanks and Polarization in Congress Committee: Bryan D. Jones, Supervisor Derek Epp Sean Theriault Christopher Wlezien Christina Wolbrecht Information Wars: Party Elites, Think Tanks and Polarization in Congress by Edward James Fagan, Ph.D. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin May 2020 Acknowledgements Luck is a bigger factor in our lives than most of us like to admit. Six years ago, I had to choose between four great graduate programs knowing little about how graduate school and academia actually worked. All I knew was that I wanted to study political science and public policy. I ended up choosing to study under Bryan Jones at the University of Texas, but I almost decided to attend each of the other three programs. It was the best decision of my life. Bryan pushes his students to do exciting, original and pathbreaking research. His approach might backfire if it did not come paired with an enormous time commitment, patience and his fostering of one of the richest intellectual communities in the discipline. I will deeply miss our weekly meetings to discuss not just this dissertation, but also political science more broadly, current events and life. I promise to repay the favor as a mentor for the next generation. I was also lucky to have the best colleagues on my committee, at the University of Texas at Austin, and the broader world of the Comparative Agendas Project. Thank you Derek Epp, Sean Theriault, Chris Wlezien and Christina Wolbrecht for being the best committee anyone could ask for. I also owe a tremendous debt to other faculty. Thank you Alison Craig, Chris Faricy, Michael Findley, Wendy Hunter, Chris Koski, Eric McDaniel, Peter Mortensen, Daron Shaw, Bat Sparrow and Sam Workman. I also had the best peers in the business at the Policy Agendas Project. Thank you Christine Bird, Felipe Brasil, Ross Buchanon, Laura De Castro Quaglia, Maraam Dwidar, Connor Dye, Rebecca Eissler, Henry Flatt, Guy Freeman, Jon Lewallen, Katie Madel, Zac McGee, Annelise Russell, JoBeth Shafran, Brooke Shannon, Trey Thomas and Michelle Whyman. iv Long before graduate school, I had the good fortune of having amazing teachers, mentors and bosses in my life. I would never have succeeded in graduate school without the support of Raymond Baker, Joe Cammarano, Tom Cardamone, Clark Gascoigne, Jack Dirr, Jeff Hauser, Bob Johnson and Heather Lowe. Thank you for your advice, patience and encouragement. I was also privileged to take the long and windy road to where I am today. Thank you to my parents and family for providing me that privilege. I was able to quit a well- paying job that I loved at 28 years old. I could not have taken that leap without your unwavering support. I know that I was not the easiest child to raise, but you allowed me to pursue the career of my dreams despite a deeply uncertain outcome. Finally, thank you Elle. Graduate school often required that I sacrifice time, attention and focus that you deserved. These past five years have been the happiest of my life. v Abstract Information Wars: Party Elites, Think Tanks and Polarization in Congress Edward James Fagan The University of Texas at Austin, 2020 Supervisor: Bryan D. Jones For much of modern history, U.S. political parties adopted a consensus non-partisan knowledge regime, consisting of experts at universities, non-partisan think tanks and government agencies, to inform policymaking decisions. However, after the consensus supported by the knowledge regime enabled the expansion of the scope of federal government domestic policy during the 1950s-1970s period, ideological conservatives rejected the non-partisan regime and created their own alternative knowledge regime centered around a small number of party-aligned think tanks. Democrats followed a few decades later to create their own alternative knowledge regime. These think tanks fill a privileged role advising political parties that is reserved for formal party organizations in most democracies. I argue that they use a variety of strategies, including issue redefinition, activating latent preferences and elite persuasion, to move their party’s positions away from the center and toward the left or right. They published biased policy analysis that often makes claims which conflict with claims made by non-partisan policy analysis. As they become larger and more influential across time or between issues, party-aligned think tanks increase polarization in Congress. vi Table of Contents List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... x List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 Plan for the Book ........................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 2: Knowledge Regimes, Think Tanks and U.S. Political Parties ........................ 16 History of think tanks, political parties and knowledge regimes in the U.S. ........... 19 Technocratic era (1920s-1970s) .......................................................... 19 Conservative reaction (1970s-1990s) .................................................. 23 Progressive counter-reaction (2000s-present) ..................................... 34 U.S. think tanks as party-like organizations ........................................ 39 Research design ........................................................................................................ 42 Definitions ........................................................................................... 43 Case Selection ..................................................................................... 47 Summary .................................................................................................................. 52 Chapter 3: Theory of Information and Political Parties .................................................... 54 Theories of U.S. party position-taking ..................................................................... 56 Office-seeking and coalitional theories of political parties ................. 56 Extended political network theory and policy-seeking political parties ............................................................................................ 61 My theory of party positions. ................................................................................... 64 Information theory and Congress ........................................................ 64 My theory of information and preferences .......................................... 69 vii Party-aligned think tanks strategies ..................................................... 74 Summary .................................................................................................................. 77 Chapter 4: Comparative Policy Analysis .......................................................................... 79 Party-Aligned Think Tanks and Biased Policy Analysis ......................................... 80 Bias ...................................................................................................... 80 Framing ................................................................................................ 85 Research design ........................................................................................................ 86 Comparative policy analysis case studies ................................................................ 91 American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 ............................. 91 Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act of 2010 ........................... 95 Clean Energy Portfolio Standards ..................................................... 100 Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013 ......................................................... 105 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 .......................................................... 113 Summary ................................................................................................................ 118 Chapter 5: Polarization and Party-Aligned Think Tanks Over Time .............................. 122 Research on polarization ........................................................................................ 125 Elites at Party-Aligned Think Tanks and Polarization ...................... 131 Results .................................................................................................................... 134 Party-Aligned Think Tanks and Polarization in Congress ................ 134 Party-Aligned Think Tanks and Cuts to Congressional Capacity ..... 143 Summary ................................................................................................................ 149 Chapter 6: Measuring Polarization Across Issues ........................................................... 151 Measuring Polarization Across Issues .................................................................... 152 viii Summary ...............................................................................................................