THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 8 No. 3 September 2001 The o±cial bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis A WORD FROM forthcoming in the next few (Spain, June 2002). Details can THE PRESIDENT weeks. be found on our web site at The Executive Committee and www.bayesian.org. A very by Alicia Carriquiry the Board of Directors of ISBA promising new venture for ISBA ISBA President have been actively discussing is an international meeting [email protected] several issues of importance to planned for 2003, that will be ISBA and its membership. jointly sponsored by the IMS; Dear ISBA members: Underway are discussions, for stay tuned for more news in the I hope that this issue of the example, on the always elusive coming months. Bulletin finds everyone in good problem of our stagnant ' $ health and in good spirits. For membership numbers. Contents our members in the United How should we try to ➤ Nominating Committee States, a special hope that the increase the number of ISBA ☛ Page 2 appalling tragedy of September members? In the recent past, 11 did not affect family or ISBA has made efforts on a ➤ 2002 Mitchell Prize friends in any serious way. variety of fronts to attract and ☛ Page 2 First of all, I’d like to extend then retain new members. the warmest congratulations on A very convenient and secure ➤ ISBA Elections behalf of ISBA to our new system to register and pay dues ☛ Page 3 Savage Award winners: Peter online has been in operation for ➤ Bayesian history Hoff, Tzee-Ming Huang, and some time now, thanks to the ☛ Page 7 Jeremy Oakley, and also to Tim efforts of our Treasurer Val Hanson who obtained an Johnson and of our Web Master ➤ Bayesian history honorable mention. The Mike Evans. The ISBA Bulletin ☛ Page 12 committee ably chaired by has been an essential channel of Ehsan Soofi is already working communication with our ➤ Applications to select next year’s Savage membership. Under the very ☛ Page 13 Award winners. capable hands of its Editor ➤ Valencia 7 And talking of awards, I am Fabrizio Ruggeri, the ISBA ☛ Page 14 delighted to report that ISBA Bulletin has grown into a real has agreed to administer the asset for ISBA, and perhaps one ➤ Bayesian teaching endowment of the Mitchell of our most effective tools today ☛ Page 15 Prize, that was established in to engage our members with 1993 in memory of Toby J. ISBA. ➤ Bayesians in Japan Mitchell. The Program Committee, ☛ Page 16 The final news about awards chaired by Tony O’Hagan, has ➤ Software review has to do with the DeGroot been busy, and with exciting ☛ Page 19 Prize, that will be awarded for results; some of the meetings the first time during the that ISBA will be sponsoring or ➤ Bibliography Valencia 7 meeting, and every co-sponsoring in the near future ☛ Page 22 second year after that. Steve include the Latin American Fienberg, from Carnegie Mellon Conference on Statistics and ➤ Students' corner University, has enthusiastically Probability (Cuba, November ☛ Page 24 agreed to chair the first DeGroot 2001), the First Latin American ➤ News from the world Prize selection committee, and Bayesian Meeting (Brazil, ☛ Page 26 announcements will be February 2002), and Valencia 7 & % ISBA Bulletin, September 2001 ISBA The valiant efforts described ISBA ELECTIONS Australia; Lawrence Pettit, above have not yet resulted in Goldsmiths’ College, UK; and increased membership, by Philip Dawid Hal Stern, Iowa State University, however, so it may be time to Chair, ISBA Nominating USA. In accordance with the think about new services that Committee Constitution and By-Laws, the the society can offer its [email protected] Nominating Committee has members. Projects are in the nominated two candidates for The election for new ISBA works, and will be presented to each vacancy. The names of the Officers and Board members, to the membership for feedback in candidates, and a short take up office on 1 January the near future. On the nuts and statement from each, appear 2002, will shortly take place. The bolts side, the Executive will elsewhere in this issue of the following positions are to be filled: propose to the Board of President-Elect (2002), to Bulletin. The By-Laws also Directors that the Board serve as President in 2003, and provide for nominations by authorize ISBA to establish a as Past President in 2004. petition of 30 members of ISBA. system for automatic deduction Treasurer (2002–4), to replace This year no such petition was of annual membership fees, as is Valen Johnson. received by the deadline of 15 currently done by, for example, Four Directors (2002–4), to September 2001. the Royal Statistical Society. A replace those retiring from the Ballots will be made available closer cooperation and Board. by 15 October 2001, and are to increased communication with The President-Elect and be returned by 15 November. the Section on Bayesian Treasurer are also ex officio The primary medium for Statistical Sciences of the ASA members of both the Board and transmission of ballots and need to be established. Alan the Executive Committee. other election information will Gelfand, current Chair of SBSS Details of the continuing and be electronic. ISBA members (and ISBA member!), has been retiring members of the who have not provided e-mail very helpful by raising Executive and Board may be addresses will receive a paper awareness about ISBA among found on the ISBA website at ballot by regular mail. The ISBA SBSS members. www.bayesian.org. Treasurer keeps the official We are always delighted to This year’s ISBA Nominating record of postal and electronic hear from you, and to get input Committee consisted of Philip mail addresses. Until December and ideas on how to make our Dawid, University College 2001 notification of changes to society more valuable to its London, UK, Past President either address should be made members. Please feel free to ISBA (Chair); Gabriel Huerta, by e-mail to [email protected], write to any of the officers of CIMAT, Mexico; Katja Ickstadt, or by regular mail to Professor ISBA (you will find their University of Darmstadt, Valen Johnson, ISBA Treasurer, addresses in the ISBA web site), Germany; Rosangela Loschi, Los Alamos National but in particular, please do not Universidad Federal de Minas Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, MS hesitate to contact me at Gerais, Brazil; Kerrie Mengersen, F600, Los Alamos, NM 87545, [email protected]. University of Newcastle, USA. 2002 MITCHELL Toby Mitchell who spent the Meeting in June of 2002. PRIZE bulk of his professional career at Complete details about the Prize the Oak Ridge National and the nomination process are The Mitchell Prize, sponsored Laboratories on applied problems provided in the Mitchell Prize jointly by the SBSS, the ISBA in biology and engineering, and Charter (see www.bayesian.org and the Founders Committee, is who argued often and under ISBA awards). Entries for given annually in recognition of persuasively for a Bayesian the 2002 prize should be sent an outstanding paper that describes approach to solving them. (before 1st February, 2002) to how a Bayesian analysis has solved The 2002 Committee (Rod Professor Henry Wynn, Dept. of an important applied problem. Little, Tony O’Hagan and Henry Statistics, University of The Prize includes an award of Wynn, Chair), seeks Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, $1000 and a commemorative nominations for the Prize that UK. [email protected] plaque. It is given in memory of will be awarded at the ISBA 2 ISBA Bulletin, September 2001 ISBA ELECTIONS INFORMATION ➤ Services to other Societies: often not involved. By ON CANDIDATES Associate Editor - Biometrika, increasing our visibility through President Elect JASA; IMS - Committee on joint efforts with other societies Fellows, Nomination of statisticians and scientists, we Edward I. George Committee Chair; ASA- COS can increase our membership Representative for SBSS; and our impact. Preliminary ➤ Affiliation and Current Status: Program Chair for B&E Section plans for a joint ISBA-IMS Professor of Statistics, 1999; Nomination Committee meeting in 2003 are an excellent Department of Statistics, The for SBSS. step in this direction. We may Wharton School of the also want to consider ISBA University of Pennsylvania. My view of ISBA sessions at the meetings of other societies with reciprocal ➤ Web Page and e-mail Address: In existence for just 9 years, sessions for them at our www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/ ISBA has already become a meetings. To further encourage »edgeorge/; remarkable professional society. the dissemination of our [email protected] We have enjoyed six grand ISBA accomplishments, I believe it is ➤ Areas of Interest: Hierarchical World Meetings, most recently, time for a concerted effort to Modeling, Model Uncertainty, the tremendously successful establish relations between Shrinkage Estimation, Treed Crete meeting attended by 297 ISBA and the popular media. Modeling, Variable Selection, participants from 30 different ISBA publications, such as the Wavelet Regression. countries. Enveloped by a upcoming ISBA 2000 volume, ➤ Most Important Journals or magical spirit of hard work and are yet another route to Books: Annals of Statistics; hard play, these meetings have increased visibility. Although I Biometrika; JASA; JRSSB; been spurred on by a marvelous am open to the idea of an ISBA Machine Learning; Aspects of camaraderie that ensures a journal, I can also see its Uncertainty (A.F.M. Smith and P. productive and fun time for all. drawbacks and look forward to Freeman, eds.); Markov Chain Beyond these World Meetings, an open and friendly debate of Monte Carlo in Practice (W.R. ISBA continues to sponsor its merits across our Gilks, S. Richardson and D.J. numerous successful regional membership.