Implications for United States’ Military Strategy and Policy of China’s Asymmetric Anti-Satellite Capability Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By William B. Robey, M.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2015 Dissertation Committee: Randall L. Schweller, Advisor Alexander Thompson Christopher Gelpi Copyright by William Bud Robey 2015 Abstract This dissertation argues that a military power shift has occurred in the Pacific. Prevailing international relations theorists believe that United States’ military retains a decisive power advantage in the region. This paper offers the argument that the Chinese have adopted an orthogonal approach to increasing their military bargaining power by pursuing a strategy of exploiting US military overdependence on space enabled warfare. To prove this, the paper offers proof the Chinese have pursued and created a kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) capability capable of destroying US space assets. The Chinese strategy can be effective only in combination with an extant operational and strategic US vulnerability on space. The paper further proves through a comparative case study approach that the US is indeed over dependent on space. The factors of over dependence on encrypted radio communications of the German Navy in World War II and the Battle of the Atlantic are identified in a historical case study. Those factors are then tested for in the US case of space dependence to determine exploitable vulnerability. The conclusions of the study decisively identify a vulnerable US position with highly proliferated dependence on small numbers of space assets, the concentration of risk in those assets, and the existence of a constructive relationship between US space enablers and US ii military operational doctrine. These facts combined with the Chinese ASAT capability reduce the US bargaining position in a crisis. The survivability of mobile Chinese ASAT assets and the threshold differences between attacking on orbit assets versus pre-empting Chinese ASATs in mainland China create a condition where the US must start a war with China in order to preserve the ability to win. The ability therefore to hold US space assets at risk gives the Chinese escalation dominance in a crisis situation. This research is the first methodical analysis of the impact of the Chinese ASAT program on US-Chinese military power relations, and an important addition to the growing body of work on Chinese anti-access, area denial (A2/AD) strategies. It also expands scholarship in the area of rising challenger strategies shaping responses, offering an approach where a rising challenger seeks to expand power without triggering significant balancing responses from the reigning global power by focusing on reigning power vulnerabilities instead of strengths. iii Dedication Dedicated to my family iv Acknowledgements I would like to gratefully thank the United States Air Force for allowing me the opportunity to study international relations. I offer sincere thanks to the Department of Political Science faculty at The Ohio State University, in particular the members of my committee, Dr. Randy Schweller, Dr. Alex Thompson, and Dr. Chris Gelpi. I would also like to thank the Dean of Air War College, Dr. Mark Conversino, for his patience, understanding and support. Finally, I wish to acknowledge the unwavering support of my Mom and my eternal gratefulness to my Dad. v Vita 1984……………………............Tecumseh High School 1989……………………………B.S. Biology, University of Illinois 1993……………………………M.S. Administration, Central Michigan University 2002……………………………M.A. National Security and Strategic Studies, Naval War College 2009……………………………M.A. Strategic Studies, Air War College Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science Minor Field: International Relations vi Table of Contents Abstract ……..……………………………………………………………………….… ii Dedication .....……………………………………………………………………….... iv Acknowledgements ….……….……………………..……………………………..…. v Vita ….……….……………………..………………………………………………..… vi List of Tables ....………..…………………………………………………..……….. viii List of Figures ....………..…………………………………………..……………...... ix Chapter 1: Introduction and theory ………………………………………………… 1 Chapter 2: China is Exploiting US Space Dependence …………………….….. 37 Chapter 3: Enigma, Ultra and Operational Overdependence ………………….. 70 Chapter 4: The United States is Walking into a Trap: Critical Overdependence on Space …………………………………………………………………………… 115 Chapter 5: Conclusions and Implications ……………………………………….. 167 References ………………………………………………………………………… 180 vii List of Tables Table 1. ASAT Probability of Kill …………………………………………………. 66 Table 2. Active Duty Military Personnel 1940-2011 ……………………...…… 139 Table 3. Evolution of Space Enabled Strike complex …………………………. 155 viii List of Figures Figure 1. US and Chinese Defense Spending ………………………………..…… 5 Figure 2. First Island Chain Map ………………………………………………...... 20 Figure 3. US Airpower and Space ………………………………………………... 30 Figure 4. Space Attacks Change Crisis Decision Making ……………………… 31 Figure 5. US and Chinese Satellite Comparisons ………………………………. 52 Figure 6. Scherbius Enigma Patent Image ………………………………………. 86 Figure 7. Allied Shipping codes in WWII …………………………………………. 93 Figure 8. Allied Shipping Lost and German U-boats lost …………………….… 94 Figure 9. Battle of the Atlantic Case Study Comparison …..………………….. 108 Figure 10. Space Orbits and Altitudes …………….……………………..….….. 117 Figure 11. US Aircraft Inventory over the Decades ………………………….… 141 Figure 12. Air Force Personnel and Aircraft ……………………………….…… 142 Figure 13. Navy Personnel and Ships ……………………………………….….. 145 Figure 14. USAF Budget Allocation …............................................................ 147 Figure 15. Space Dependence Cycle ………………………………………..…. 157 Figure 16. Effects of Space and Stealth on Aircraft …………………………… 158 Figure 17. The Vicious Acquisitions Cycle ……………………………………… 161 ix Figure 18. Case Study Comparison …………………………………………….. 165 x Chapter 1: Introduction and Theory The United States is faced with a world power structure experiencing dynamic change. China is rising and the relative power of the United States (US) is in decline. Amid this context, the Chinese have continued to build their economic and military power. By some estimates, they have more than doubled their spending on military equipment, enacting double digit increases in their defense expenditures for over a decade.1 In the past, rising powers like the Chinese that aggressively increase their defense spending have triggered balancing actions, both by neighboring states and the dominant power in the international system. Wilhelmine Germany, Japan prior to WWII, and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) have all been chronicled as examples of rising states whose arms growth triggered balancing reactions. In each of these examples, the rising state sought increased military power by challenging the military strengths of the dominant powers, and each ultimately failed in their goals: Germany and Japan in world wars and the USSR in collapse. By The views expressed in this dissertation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. 1 Unattributed, “The dragon’s new teeth: China’s military rise,” The Economist, No. 403 (April 07, 2012), pp. 27-32. 1 challenging the strengths of the dominant state, these rising powers sent clear signals of their intentions, making themselves focal points to rally against, much like children on a playground using a head-on approach to confrontation, they practically ensured balancing responses. This international security politics dynamic provides the backdrop for this study’s raison d’être. Will China’s rise follow the pattern of the examples above? Will China seek to challenge US strength in the Pacific region, and will its increasing material capabilities eventually trigger a balancing response which guarantees China will either remain in the same relative power position, or lead to resolution of the issue through conflict or even war? This paper explores a unique facet of this question by making the argument that Chinese exploitation of US strategic vulnerability in space creates a real military power differential that has impact on the political relationship between the U.S. and China, shifting the advantage to the Chinese in a crisis situation. This approach is available to the Chinese and places them on a path to increased bargaining power while avoiding counterbalancing; one which evidence will show they are already following. In making this argument, the following pages explain two related puzzles. The first puzzle is why the Chinese chose to pursue anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, and if their pursuit of anti-satellite weaponry enables a Chinese power transition strategy? The second puzzle is integral to the first, how did the United States manage to become over dependent on military space capabilities to the 2 extent they are strategically vulnerable to ASAT weapons? This second puzzle is the primary emphasis of the paper, being the necessary prerequisite to any Chinese ASAT approach. The evidence for Chinese ASAT technology and reasoning will be addressed in chapter two, while US overdependence on space will be explained in chapters three and four. Unlike China, the cases cited above are historical, and while consensus is that China is rising, we do not