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Guffey Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Future U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan : U.S. Air Force roles / David E. Thaler ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4197-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Iraq—Military relations—United States. 2. United States—Military relations—Iraq. 3. Afghanistan—Military relations—United States. 4. United States—Military relations—Afghanistan. 5. United States. Air Force. I. Thaler, David E. DS79.76.F88 2008 355'.031097309567—dc22 2008023903 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Navy photo/Petty Officer 1st Class David M. Votroubek. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface President Bush’s National Security Strategy describes the current cir- cumstance as one in which “America is at war,” prompted by “the rise of terrorism fueled by an aggressive ideology of hatred and murder.” The strategy highlights a parallel policy of “fighting and winning the war on terror and promoting freedom as the alternative to tyranny and despair.”1 Iraq and Afghanistan are centerpieces of this strategy, giving the United States a huge stake in their long-term development. Not only is the United States heavily invested diplomatically, economically, and militarily in these two nations, but the countries are also situated in geostrategically critical locations. Iraq and Afghanistan are the nexus of many interrelated threats, including terrorism, insurgency, trans- national crime, and trade in narcotics and weapons. Developments in these nations will affect the futures and regional ambitions of their neighbors, for good or for ill. A stable and secure Afghanistan and Iraq could be key partners with the United States and others in meeting the challenges they face in the Middle East and Central and South Asia— even as weak and ineffective governments and resulting instability in these two nations could once again create severe security concerns for the United States. This monograph seeks to provide U.S. defense decisionmakers and planners with insights into the role that America’s armed forces, especially its Air Force, might be called upon to play in forging durable 1 George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 2006, Washington, D.C.: The White House, p. 1 of opening statement. iii iv Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan U.S.-Afghan and U.S.-Iraqi security relationships for the long term— both as direct providers of security to what will remain fragile and vul- nerable states and as shapers of a regional environment within which Iraq and Afghanistan can thrive. The research reported here was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Director of Operational Plans and Joint Matters (A5X), Headquarters United States Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doc- trine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a fiscal year 2006 study, “Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan.” It should be of interest to U.S. security policymakers, military plan- ners, and analysts and observers of regional affairs in the Middle East and Central and South Asia. The bulk of the research was completed in late 2006. To the extent practicable, the authors have updated major events and condi- tions described throughout the monograph through summer 2007. As any observer of Iraq and Afghanistan can attest, however, these devel- opments are very fast paced and pose a challenge to analysis of long- term trends and factors. The authors fully expect some of the references in the document to appear dated to readers by the time of publication. Nevertheless, the findings and recommendations contained herein are designed to withstand the ebb and flow of near-term events and to remain relevant as a vision for the future. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analysis. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................ ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 U.S., Iraqi, and Afghan Security Objectives .................................... 4 U.S. Interests in the Surrounding Regions ................................... 4 U.S. Interests in Iraq and Afghanistan ....................................... 4 Iraqi and Afghan Security Objectives ......................................... 8 Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan ...............................10 Toward Compatibility and Security ..........................................13 Toward Incompatibility and Insecurity ......................................14 Toward Incompatibility and Security ........................................15 Concluding Remarks .............................................................16 CHAPTER TWO Perspectives on Potential Threats to Stability and Security in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions ...........................19 Introduction .......................................................................19 Threats to Iraqi and Afghan Security .......................................... 20 Threat Perceptions of Iraq’s Domestic Groups ............................. 20 Threat Perceptions of Afghanistan’s Domestic Groups .....................21 v vi Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan The Evolution of Terrorism and Insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq .................................................................... 22 The Breakdown of Central Authority in Afghanistan and Iraq .......... 28 Regional