SAFETY SAFETY North Atlantic Region North Atlantic Region 2015 Annual Safety Report 2015 Annual Safety ReportJune 2016 June 2016 2 NAT-ASR 2015 DISCLAIMER This document is produced and disseminated by the North Atlantic Systems Planning Group (NAT SPG). The NAT SPG assumes no liability for its content or use therof. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The NAT SPG wishes to extend its thanks to the members of the NAT Safety Oversight Group that contributed to this report. Annual Safety Report Annual Safety Report NAT-ASR 2015 3 Contents Executive Summary ..................................................... 4 The North Atlantic Scenario ......................................... 5 Safety Policy ............................................................... 8 Safety Performance ................................................... 10 Alignment with the Global Aviation Safety Plan .......... 22 NAT Regional Priorities .............................................. 24 A Look Ahead ............................................................ 26 Conclusion ................................................................ 28 Appendix A ................................................................ 29 Annual Safety Report 4 NAT-ASR 2015 Executive Summary The North Atlantic Region’s third annual safety Plan (GASP) is an important part of regional safe- report is issued by ICAO’s North Atlantic (NAT) Sys- ty management. For the NAT Region, the required tems Planning Group (NAT SPG). As stipulated in alignment is underway, and the Region considers its terms of reference, the NAT SPG shall continu- itself to have met the near-term objective of the ously study, monitor and evaluate the air navigation GASP and is working toward the mid-term and system in the NAT Region in light of changing traf- long-term objectives. fic characteristics, technological advances and up- In 2015, the Region adopted a tiered approach dated traffic forecasts. This report is based on data to safety planning, which endeavors to ensure from January to December 2015 and provides basic that: information on the Region, its safety principles, and l the safety indicators are sufficient for ana- its risks. The report also describes some of the NAT lyzing safety performance in the NAT; SPG’s collaborative safety management efforts. l the KPIs are used to inform the NAT SPG of The management of safety in the NAT Region trends; is partly conducted by the use of safety Key Per- l the establishment of project teams to iden- formance Indicators (KPIs) that have been devel- tify potential mitigations to reverse adverse oped and established by the NAT SPG. The NAT trends are encouraged; SPG has agreed on targets for eleven safety KPIs. l the effectiveness of any mitigations taken For the year 2015, targets were met for 2 of 2 are reviewed; and KPIs and the Region continues on track to meet l the trends, the status of any initiatives or an additional two targets in 2018 (see Table 3 for mitigations recommended and adopted, and more detailed information). the effectiveness of any the mitigations taken, Alignment with the Global Aviation Safety are reported to the NAT SPG. Annual Safety Report NAT-ASR 2015 5 The North Atlantic Scenario The airspace of the North Atlantic, which links 2015, approximately 717,000 flights crossed the Europe and North America, is the busiest oceanic North Atlantic. The NAT EFFG expects traffic in this airspace in the world. The NAT Economic, Financial, Region to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent over the next and Forecast Group (NAT EFFG) estimates that in 5 years, as shown in Table 1 below. ACTUAL FORECAST Scenario 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 Pessimistic 946 1,043 1,150 Baseline 717 749 765 789 816 858 994 1,153 1,337 Optimistic 1,079 1,358 1,709 Table 1. Forecasts of aircraft movements in the ICAO NAT Region (thousands) Traffic mainly flows in a broadly East-West ori- tent based on High Frequency radio but increasingly entation in a twice daily pattern, whose timing re- on satellite based data link. This makes any compar- flects the needs of passengers in North America and ison with the domestic airspace of North America Europe, and where a daily organized track system and Europe difficult. NAT core traffic flow is almost takes account of airspace users’ needs and weather exclusively jet transport aircraft that operate in the patterns. This core traffic operates for a large part upper airspace in the en-route phase of flight. This without radar surveillance and increasingly with the leads to air traffic management and operation that use of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Contract is fundamentally different in concept to typical do- (ADS-C) and Automatic Dependent Surveillance- mestic operations, with a greater focus on strategic Broadcast (ADS-B). Communication is to a large ex- rather than tactical techniques. Annual Safety Report 6 NAT-ASR 2015 Annual Safety Report NAT-ASR 2015 7 NAT SPG Working Structure The ICAO structure for the North Atlantic is gov- Agency (NAT CMA), which is the Regional Monitoring erned by the NAT SPG, which was established in 1965 Agency for the NAT region. This information is analyzed by the Council of ICAO. The NAT Region joins Canada, by the NAT Scrutiny Group (NAT SG) and the NAT Math- Denmark, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, ematicians Working Group (NAT MWG), both subgroups UK, and the USA, which are responsible for providing of the NAT Safety Oversight Group (NAT SOG). The sub- air navigation service and oversight, thereof, in the NAT stance of this annual safety report is derived from the Region. Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Portugal and the UK work of these groups and bodies. have sovereign airspace within the region. Within the Periodically, the ICAO Secretariat for the NAT Region NAT SPG structure, States, along with other stakehold- and member States review its organizational structure ers, work together with the joint goal of safe aircraft and look to optimize it. In 2014, the NAT SPG reaffirmed operations. the current structure at the highest levels, but consoli- All of the NAT service provider States support the dated subgroups under the Implementation Management NAT SPG’s safety management activities by contribut- Group (IMG). The new organizational structure diagram ing certain occurrence data to the Central Monitoring of the IMG is illustrated in Figure 1 below. NAT SPG Services NAT CMA NAT SPG NAT EFFG NAT DLMA NAT DMO NAT SOG NAT IMG NAT SG NAT MWG NAT TIG NAT POG NAT Projects (can be created by any NAT SPG contributory group) Project A Project B Project F Project X Project Y Figure 1: NAT SPG Working Structure The North Atlantic Economic and Financial Group MWG. Calendar year 2015 saw the smooth transition was renamed the NAT EFFG. The NAT SOG subgroups to this new structure and the Region is expected to remained intact with a minor adjustment for the NAT reap its benefits in 2016. Annual Safety Report 8 NAT-ASR 2015 Safety Policy Safety is one of the NAT SPG’s core business functions. The NAT SPG is committed to developing, implementing, maintaining and constantly improving strategies and processes to ensure that all our aviation activities take place under a balanced allocation of organizational resources. The NAT SPG will aim to achieve the highest level of safety performance and meet regional safety objectives in line with national and international standards, the GASP, and the Global Air Navigation Plan. Objective The objective of the NAT SPG member States is • All involved States are accountable for the deliv- to maintain and, where possible, improve the agreed ery of the agreed level of safety performance in safety standards in all activities supporting the provi- aircraft operations in the North Atlantic Region. sion of air navigation services in the North Atlantic • Safety in the NAT Region is managed through Region: the organization and activities of the relevant • All involved States are accountable for the implementation and oversight groups estab- deliv ery of the agreed level of safety perfor- lished by the NAT SPG, in coordination with the mance in the provision of air navigation ser- non-member States and observers, to achieve vices in the North Atlantic Region. its Safety Objective. Annual Safety Report NAT-ASR 2015 9 Guiding Principles The NAT SPG will act to: • Clearly define all accountabilities and responsibilities for the delivery of safety performance with respect to the provision of air navigation services and participation in the NAT SPG and its contribu- tory bodies; • Support the safety management activities that will result in an organizational culture that fosters safe practices, encourages effective safety re porting and communication, and actively manages safety within the NAT Region; • Share safety related data, knowledge and exper tise with concerned stakeholders; • Disseminate safety information and NAT operat ing requirements to stakeholders; • Establish and implement hazard identification and risk management processes in order to elimi nate or mitigate the safety risks associated with air navigation services supporting aircraft opera tions in the North Atlantic Region; • Establish and measure NAT Region safety performance against agreed safety standards; and • Continually improve our safety performance through safety management processes. Annual Safety Report 10 NAT-ASR 2015 Safety Performance Table 2 below lists the most common event types reported in the NAT High Level Airspace (HLA)1. 2015 Reported Events Primary error(s) as defined by the NAT SG Climb/descent