LEWISHAM RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY 2017 | FINAL REPORT| VOLUME 1 |OCTOBER 2017 London Borough of Lewisham Lewisham Retail Capacity Study 2017 Volume 1 — Main Report Final Report October 2017 1 gva.co.uk/planning LEWISHAM RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY 2017 | FINAL REPORT| VOLUME 1 |OCTOBER 2017 CONTENTS VOLUME 1 — MAIN REPORT 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 3 2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 4 3 STUDY AREA AND CONTEXT .................................................................................................. 12 4 THE SUB-REGIONAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 17 5 MAJOR CENTRES ................................................................................................................... 24 6 DISTRICT CENTRES.................................................................................................................. 33 7 SURVEY AREA, SHOPPING PATTERNS AND POPULATION & EXPENDITURE GROWTH ............ 47 8 COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY FORECASTS ................................................................... 53 9 CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY FORECASTS .................................................................. 61 10 COMMERCIAL LEISURE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................... 65 11 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 71 Additional volumes: VOLUME 2 — PLANS & APPENDICES VOLUME 3 — HOUSEHOLD SURVET RESULTS (prepared by NEMS Market Research) Report date: October 2017 VOLUME 4 — LEWISHAM TOWN CENTRE & CATFORD TOWN CENTRE IN-CENTRE SURVEY RESULTS (prepared by NEMS Market Research) Report version: VOLUME 5 — LEWISHAM TOWN CENTRE & CATFORD TOWN CENTRE (prepared by PMRS) Final Report Author: Adam Bunn, Associate Planner, GVA GVA: Switchboard: 0844 902 0304 For and on behalf of GVA Grimley Ltd 2 gva.co.uk/planning LEWISHAM RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY 2017 | FINAL REPORT| VOLUME 1 |OCTOBER 2017 • Section 4 considers the wider study context, identifying the most popular shopping 1 INTRODUCTION destinations for residents in the study area, the key competing centres surrounding the study area, and the extent to which they influence the shopping patterns of residents; 1.1 GVA has been instructed by the London Borough of Lewisham to undertake the Lewisham • Section 5 reviews the composition, role and function of current shopping provision in the Retail Capacity Study 2017. The study provides the Council with an up-to-date assessment of major town centres through ‘health check’ assessments; the ‘need’ for additional retail floorspace in the Borough over the period of the Council’s new Local Plan, to 2033. It also provides an assessment of the performance of its two ‘major town • Section 6 reviews the composition, role and function of current shopping provision in the centres’ of Lewisham and Catford, and network of seven ‘district centres’. district centres through ‘health check’ assessments; 1.2 The outputs of the study provide the Council with a clear strategy for the network of centres to • Section 7 sets out our approach to calculating retail capacity, including definition of the ensure that they remain attractive and vibrant over the course of the Plan period, and fully household telephone survey area and approach, discussion of shopping patterns and able to meet the needs of local residents for shopping, leisure and services. Our study provides forecasts of population and expenditure growth; a robust evidence base which is fully compliant with the National Planning Policy Framework • Section 8 sets out the quantitative ‘need’ for additional comparison (non-food) retail (NPPF), which the Council will be able to use to inform policy development and land use floorspace in the Borough over the study period to 2033; allocations, and to assist in the determination of planning applications for new retail development in the Borough. • Section 9 sets out the quantitative ‘need’ for additional convenience (food) retail floorspace in the Borough over the study period to 2033; 1.3 Our study has been informed by on-site and desk-based information-gathering, including site visits to each of the ‘major town’ and ‘district town’ centres in the Borough. Further evidence is • Section 10 sets out our review of commercial leisure provision within and outside the provided by way of a household telephone survey of shopping and leisure patterns across the Borough, and draws conclusions on the quantitative and qualitative need for additional Borough, and adjacent surrounding areas in which residents may look towards facilities in the commercial leisure facilities; and Borough to meet their shopping and leisure needs (‘the study area’). The results of the survey • Section 11 draws our analysis together and set out conclusions, strategic guidance and can also be used to understand the extent to which centres surrounding the Borough – such as recommendations on future change and growth in the Borough’s network of centres. Bromley, Croydon and Bluewater – are competing for spending with the network of centres within the Borough. Key terms 1.4 The extent of the household telephone survey area was agreed with the Council at the initial stage of preparation of this study, and reflects that which was used in the Council’s previous 1.7 Our ‘health check’ assessments of the Borough’s network of centres, and our subsequent retail capacity evidence base study (Lewisham Retail Capacity Study, Nathaniel Lichfield & analysis of retail need and strategic recommendations refer to different types of retail and Partners, 2009, and Addendum Report, 2010). A plan of the survey area is provided at Plan I of commercial leisure floorspace, as follows: Volume 2 (and is also set out at Figure 7.1 of this report). 1.5 Our report is split into five volumes. This report forms Volume 1 to the study; Volume 2 sets out ‘Convenience’ goods refers to food shopping – including supermarkets, and specialist stores supporting plans and appendices; Volume 3 provides the household telephone survey data such as bakers, greengrocers, off licences and so on; (prepared by NEMS Market Research); Volume 4 sets out results of in-centre surveys undertaken ‘Comparison’ goods refers to non-food shopping – including fashion, home furnishings, in Lewisham and Catford town centres (also prepared by NEMS Market Research), and Volume 1electrical items, DIY goods, books and music; 5 sets out the findings of pedestrian footfall counts undertaken in Lewisham and Catford town centres by Pedestrian Market Research Services (PMRS). ‘Services’ uses refers to commercial leisure services such as restaurants and cafes, as well as retail services such as hairdressers, beauty salons, banks, building societies and estate agents. 1.6 The remainder of this report (Volume 1) is structured as follows: Non-retail uses such as cinemas and arts centres are not included in Experian Goad’s analysis, • Section 2 sets out our review of national, strategic and local planning policies relevant but are accounted for qualitatively through our own analysis. to retail and leisure planning; • Section 3 considers national trends in the retail sector, and in particular the implications of recent economic growth and technological advances which are impacting on shopping habits; 3 gva.co.uk/planning LEWISHAM RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY 2017 | FINAL REPORT| VOLUME 1 |OCTOBER 2017 • Recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring the vitality 2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT of centres; and • Where town centres are in decline, plan positively for their future to encourage economic 2.1 In this section we summarise the key features of national and local planning policy guidance activity. which provide the context and framework for this study. 2.5 LPAs should ensure that the Local Plan is based on adequate, up-to-date and relevant NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area. These assessments should be integrated and take full account of relevant market and National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (2012) economic signals. LPAs should use the evidence base to assess, inter alia; • The needs for land or floorspace for economic development, taking account of both 2.2 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), published in March 2012, sets out the quantitative and qualitative requirements for all foreseeable types of economic activity Government’s planning policies for England and replaces the suite of national Planning Policy over the plan period, including retail and commercial leisure development; Statements, Planning Policy Guidance and Circulars with a single document. • The existing and future supply of land available for economic development and its 2.3 The NPPF recognises that the planning system is plan-led and therefore Local Plans, sufficiency and suitability to meet the identified needs; incorporating neighbourhood plans where relevant, are the starting point for the determination of any planning application. In line with the Government’s aim to streamline the planning • The role and function of town centres and the relationship between them, including any process, each Local Planning Authority (LPA) should produce a single Local Plan for its area trends