The London School of Economics and Political Science Conspiracy Theory Beliefs and Worldviews: A Mixed-methods Approach Exploring the Psychology of Monologicality, Dialogicality and Belief Development. Matthew S. Hall A thesis submitted to the Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, March 2020. Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 64017 words. Statement of co-authored work I confirm that Chapter 2 was jointly co-authored with Professor Bradley Franks, Professor Adrian Bangerter, Professor Martin Bauer and Mr Mark Noort. My primary supervisor, Professor Bradley Franks, was the primary author. I contributed 85% of the data collection and 25% of the analysis. I confirm that Chapter 3 was jointly co-authored with Professor Bradley Franks and Professor Martin Bauer. I was the primary author and contributed 90% of the work. I confirm that I was the sole author of Chapter 4. I confirm that Chapter 5 was jointly co-authored with Professor Bradley Franks, Professor Martin Bauer and Professor Adrian Bangerter. I was the primary author and contributed 95% of the work. 2 Acknowledgements Firstly, thank you to all the participants of the projects who generously offered their time to share their views and experiences with me. Without their contribution, this thesis would not have been possible. Thank you to my primary supervisor, Professor Bradley Franks, my secondary supervisor, Professor Martin Bauer, and also Professor Adrian Bangerter. Also, thank you to colleagues at the Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science at LSE. The department has a rich history and an important place in social psychology. Thank you to Associate Professor Ilka Gleibs who encouraged me to join the MSc programme at LSE. Thank you to Matthew Brack and the PhD Academy, and also to Rebecca Lee, Terri-Ann Fairclough and Jacqueline Crane of the PBS Department. Finally, thank you to Julie, my parents and brothers, and the Hall family. 3 Abstract Conspiracy theories (CTs) appear to be an increasingly widespread aspect of everyday thought about social and political events. They call into question common understandings of people and institutions within society, and can have implications for political and policy relevant behaviours (e.g. voting, vaccine uptake). This thesis challenges a central finding in the limited literature covering belief in CTs – the proposition of ‘monologicality’ as proposed by Goertzel (1994), that belief in one CT is accompanied by wholescale endorsement of many others. The thesis takes a mixed-methods approach, triangulating qualitative and quantitative data, to revise our understanding of monologicality. Through qualitative analyses of interview data as presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 4, the central argument put forward is that not all belief in CTs is monological but there are various other ways of endorsing CTs. In Chapter 2, a thematic analysis reveals five types of conspiracist worldviews, proposing a gradient from non- monological worldviews, characterised by intrigue or limited endorsement, to fully monological worldviews premised upon generalised human agency (e.g. government conspiracy) or supernatural agency (e.g. extra-terrestrial cover up, spiritual entities). Chapter 3 advances the concept of ‘dialogicality,’ revealing that CT ideas are endorsed alongside commonplace ideas of science, religion and politics and society. Five dialogical relations are substantiated, including: integrative thinking, synthetic thinking, target dependent thinking, cognitive dissonance and analogical thinking. Chapter 4 provides a narrative insight into the development of CT belief for all five monological types – focussing on the perceived origins of CT belief and later development. Next, we turn to quantitative data gathered via online surveys. Chapter 5 establishes a new scale known as the Conspiracist Worldviews Scale; the first to measure different types of conspiracist worldviews from non-monological to fully 4 monological. Five subscales representing five types of conspiracist worldviews (Type 2, Type 3, Type 4, Type 5-Alien, Type 5-Spiritual) achieve construct, convergent, concurrent and diagnostic validity. The quantitative findings of Chapter 5 validate earlier qualitative findings of Chapters 2-4 and extend previous understandings of monologicality. The thesis concludes, bringing all these empirical findings together and by recognising the importance of looking beyond monologicality if we are to fully understand the phenomena characterising conspiracist belief. 5 Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 1 | The Phenomenon of Conspiracy Theory Belief ......................................................13 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 13 The research context and definition of conspiracy theories ......................................................... 13 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................... 16 Defining monologicality and dialogicality .................................................................................. 16 Existing research and the limits to monologicality ...................................................................... 19 The prospect of dialogical CT belief ........................................................................................... 25 Understanding CT belief change over time and the quasi-religious hypothesis .......................... 32 Aims ............................................................................................................................................... 35 Mixed-methods approach ................................................................................................................ 36 Research Questions ......................................................................................................................... 38 Links between chapters ................................................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 2 | Monologicality and a Typology of Conspiracist Worldviews ................................44 Article Title ..................................................................................................................................... 44 Authors ........................................................................................................................................... 44 Original Citation ............................................................................................................................. 44 Notes ............................................................................................................................................... 44 Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 45 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 46 Our Study .................................................................................................................................... 51 Method ............................................................................................................................................ 52 Data Collection ........................................................................................................................... 52 Participants ................................................................................................................................. 55 Interviews ................................................................................................................................... 56 Data Preparation and Thematic Analysis .................................................................................... 56 Results: An Ordered Typology of the Conspiratorial Mentalities ................................................... 58 The Conspiracy Worldview Reconstructed ................................................................................. 59 Typology of Individual Variations on the Conspiracy Worldview. ............................................. 61 Thematic Variations .................................................................................................................... 68 Discussion ....................................................................................................................................... 80 Monologicality