Speech by Minister for Defence Teo Chee Hean, at Committee of Supply Debate 2009 12 Feb 2009 Mr Chairman Sir, I would like to thank the Honourable Members for their comments and questions, and also for their steady commitment to Singapore's defence and security. Implications of the Financial Crisis Ms Indranee Rajah, Mr Arthur Fong and Mr Ang Mong Seng asked about the security implications of the global economic crisis. This House has extensively discussed its economic and social impact. Now, from the security perspective, there are three implications of the crisis that MINDEF is concerned. First, it will accelerate global geopolitical shifts. Second, during a recession, social stresses may lead to increased instability. Third, the threat of terrorism overlays these first two concerns. Global geo-political changes are accelerated Mr Hawazi Daipi and Mr Zainudin Nordin asked how we can ensure peace and stability in our region in these uncertain times. Ms Indranee Rajah asked about the regional security architecture. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has been the pre-eminent economic and military power. Other countries such as China and India were emerging both economically and militarily. The economic crisis has accelerated this process. While the G7 used to shape the global financial and economic framework, it no longer has the means to resolve the economic crisis by itself. Wider concerted action is required, as illustrated by the hasty convening of a G20 meeting last November. This shift in global economic weight, and the rise of other powers, will lead to a faster transition to a multi-polar world where no single power can steer global developments. The US will remain the world's most powerful nation. Its leadership will be necessary to address key economic and security issues, but it cannot work alone. This shift will also impact regional security, where the interests of the major powers - energy sources, sea lines of communication, markets - intersect, and overlay the region's traditional diversity and rivalries. It is not coincidental that tensions abound in the countries bordering the Caspian Sea and in Central Asia, where pipeline politics, energy and historical animosities provide a volatile mix. In our region, it is thus even more important that we continue to build an open, stable and inclusive regional security architecture that will help sustain peace and stability, for the longer term. ASEAN has a key role to play in this. ASEAN facilitates and shapes multilateral fora such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit. The ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting or ADMM, is an important part of this architecture, where ASEAN defence ministers come together to build a more cohesive ASEAN security community that can help shape the wider security architecture of our region. The ADMM has agreed on the principles for the ADMM-Plus, where ASEAN countries can engage our partners in the larger Asia-Pacific to address common security challenges. Other multilateral and bilateral security arrangements also play a useful role. One example is the Five Power Defence Arrangements, which bring together Malaysia and Singapore and anchor its extra-regional partners Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in our region. The annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore is the only forum where defence ministers, senior officials, and academics from the region and beyond gather for an informal and frank exchange of views. This key event, which will be held for the eighth time this year, has played a useful and unique role in sharing security perspectives, promoting confidence and transparency, and evolving new modalities for cooperation and norms of behaviour amongst countries in our region. Last year, the Ministers discussed principles for cooperation, particularly for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief. MINDEF contributes to the building of this regional security architecture in two ways. By contributing ideas and concepts to help crystallize the security architecture, and by having a capable SAF which can engage meaningfully with our ASEAN friends and partner countries, and contribute useful capabilities towards regional cooperative activities. Without either of these, Singapore would play a much more diminished role and we would not have the same voice at the table. Our multilateral engagements within the region are supported by a strong network of bilateral defence relations, particularly with Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Brunei. Every year, the SAF takes part in numerous bilateral exercises with each of these neighbours. These interactions also add breadth and depth to our relationships, and contribute to regional stability. Singapore has also been actively engaging key countries from beyond our immediate region because they play a useful and constructive role in our region. We have a strong and longstanding relationship with the US. We welcome a US presence in our region. The sustained US presence is an important stabilising influence in the Asia- Pacific region. We have demonstrated our support through the 1990 Memorandum of Understanding, and its 1998 Addendum which allows US ships and aircraft to use Singapore's facilities. In 2005, we concluded the Strategic Framework Agreement and Defence Cooperation Agreement. The high tempo of defence exchanges benefits both armed forces professionally. In addition to the three existing F-16, Chinook and Apache training detachments in the US, our Air Force will establish a new F-15SG training detachment in Mountain Home, Idaho this year. With China, the signing of the Agreement on Defence Exchanges and Security Cooperation last year was a milestone in our bilateral defence relationship. We also inaugurated the annual China-Singapore Defence Policy Dialogue, and have continued with high-level defence visits, professional exchanges, cross-attendance of courses, and port calls. Bilateral relations with India have taken significant strides since the signing of the Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2003, reflecting the wide-ranging and growing Singapore-India bilateral defence relationship. We signed a Bilateral Agreement with India for Joint Army training and exercises last year, and the Bilateral Agreement on Air Force training in 2007. Our relations with Australia and New Zealand remain warm and strong. Through bilateral exercises, exchanges and common deployments previously to East Timor and now to Afghanistan, we have developed a deep understanding with both countries. Singapore also enjoys good defence relations with Japan and Korea, and has good defence cooperation with France, Germany, Sweden, and South Africa. Stresses increase in a recession Regional stability is crucial, particularly against the backdrop of today's interconnected world. Nations face a spectrum of multi-faceted, complex, and trans-border security challenges. They include terrorism, piracy, sectarianism, competition for resources, natural disasters, pandemics, and cross-border movements of people. There are also unexpected threats that we have not yet foreseen. The unknown unknowns. Amidst these emerging challenges, we must not lose sight of the need for small states like Singapore to always be prepared to safeguard our security and sovereignty. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 is a constant reminder. A country which does not provide for its own defence leaves its future and its fate in the hands of others. I just returned from the Munich Security conference. In Munich each year, I meet many defence and foreign ministers from countries born out of the break up of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia - small countries mostly. They value their independence all the more because it is so recent, and so hard won; and in some cases, so tenuous. They worry about their security. But not all have been able to provide for it - they either have not had enough time, or they do not have the resources. Just in the past two years, several of these new countries have faced dire security threats ranging from ethnic strife, to territorial and energy disputes, which have resulted in armed conflict, loss of life and territory, interruption of energy supplies, and cyber attacks. These have caused severe damage, and in some cases break-up, of the countries affected. A deepening economic crisis will compound existing security challenges, making them more acute. Countries that are seriously affected could face social and possibly political instability and turmoil. In Britain, France, Greece, strikes and demonstrations have already broken out. As the economic slowdown bites, sources of stress and tension will increase. We saw this in our own region in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Indeed, the security challenges we face today come from all directions, "360-degrees" and have the potential to undermine our security - and our region's security. Piracy is one of these. Mr Ang Mong Seng and Mr Michael Palmer have asked about piracy in the Malacca Strait and the Gulf of Aden. By threatening the freedom of navigation and the safety of international shipping, piracy adversely impacts the global economy and regional security. The Straits of Singapore and Malacca, and the Gulf of Aden, are vital waterways connecting Asia and Europe. In the Malacca Strait, the three littoral states - Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia - started the Malacca Strait Patrols in 2004 to combat piracy. This grouping has now expanded to include Thailand. The number of piracy incidents in the Malacca Strait has declined significantly, from a high of 21 in 2004, to 6 in 2008. These are figures from ReCAAP. But some analysts have predicted that the economic crisis may cause piracy to rise. For example, last November, Indonesian Navy spokesman Sagom Tamboem told journalists, and I quote, "we predict that with the global crisis, there will be more pirates and illegal activities taking place in the Malacca Strait". This is a realistic assessment. Therefore, we will have to maintain our efforts in the Malacca Strait. User states can also share information through the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery or ReCAAP, which I had mentioned earlier.