PROJECT/PROGRAMME PROPOSAL TO THE ADAPTATION FUND PART I: PROJECT/PROGRAMME INFORMATION Project/Programme Category: Regional project Country: Armenia and Georgia Title of Project/Programme: Increased climate resilience of South Caucasus mountain communities and ecosystems through wildfire risk reduction Type of Implementing Entity: MIE Implementing Entity: UNDP Executing Entity/ies: UNDP Amount of Financing Requested: $7,475,650 (in U.S Dollars Equivalent) Project / Programme Background and Context: Summary 1. This project seeks to increase the resilience of mountain communities and forest ecosystems to climate-induced hazards, and in particular to the increasing risk of forest wildfire in mountainous regions of the Southern Caucasus. By doing so, the project aims to improve the safety and livelihoods of forest-dependent communities, reduce bio-diversity losses and other environmental impacts, reduce the costs associated with large scale wildfire response, loss of life and other damages, and maximise ancillary benefits associated with sustainable forest management, including the role of forests as carbon sinks. 2. The forest biome of the South Caucasus covers around 20% of the Caucasus Ecoregion. The region is listed by WWF as a global conservation priority area with extremely rich biodiversity. The project activities will be undertaken in two countries of the Southern Caucasus - Armenia and Georgia which contain a significant proportion of the forest resources. 3. Wildfires in forest mountain eco- systems in the two countries have shown an increasing trend over recent years, having historically been of less importance. While the evidence indicates that the most significant cause of these wildfires is anthropogenic (e.g. agricultural residue burning, recreational tourism), their increasing frequency and severity clearly reflects changes in the climate. Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation are making the forests drier and more susceptible to combustion and rapid wildfire spread. Climate change is a significant threat multiplier. 1 4. Future climate predictions indicate that wildfire risk is likely to increase further over time, particularly in less humid and temperate forests away from the Black Sea coast and towards the Central and Eastern area of the Southern Caucasus. This has the potential to impose significant costs on mountain forest communities, who together with the local forest agencies act as stewards of the landscape forest resource. Communities not only benefit from livelihoods supported by forest resources (timber products, fuel wood, forest products, tourism, agriculture) but are also important participants in wildfire identification and response. 5. The project will seek to both reduce the risk of wildfire outbreak as well as build capacity for more effective engagement when wildfires do occur to minimize environmental and economic damage. It will also promote sustainable eco-systems and enhance the livelihoods of those living in mountain forest regions. It will seek to do this by building an integrated regional wildfire management approach with the following components: a. Regional regulatory and institutional capacity to reduce risk and improve response; b. Enhanced use of data for wildfire forecasting, early warning and decision making; c. More effective wildfire and sustainable forestry management at the local level. 6. Given the regional and transboundary nature of the problem, addressing wildfire risk offers an opportunity for strong coordination and alignment between countries. There are already high levels of joint response in fighting major wildfire incidents. The common challenges create an opportunity for greater regional alignment in regulation, vulnerability assessment, data analysis, forecasting, and learning. The project will promote common approaches and strengthen regional coordination and learning mechanisms where these add value. 7. The regional approach will allow building cooperation between the two countries on regulatory reform (e.g. volunteering), hydro-meteorological, forest and wildfire data management, harmonizing hazard assessment methodologies, monitoring and forecasting of wildfires and other climate- induced disasters, and setting up joint Early Warning Systems. The project will develop common modelling tools for risk and vulnerability assessment, common SOPs on information collection, storage and dissemination, as well as reporting standards on climate induced hazards. Regional cooperation on fire surveillance and firefighting also will be strengthened. Finally, the regional project will facilitate sharing of lessons on ecosystem-based climate change adaptation and the role of communities in reducing risk. 8. The project will work directly with the forest and protected area agencies and the emergency services in the respective countries for project implementation. Activities will be undertaken at a regional, national and local (e.g. forest district or enterprise) level and are likely to help improve the resilience of 500,000 ha of mountain ecosystems and the safety and livelihoods of 800,000 people in the two countries. 2 Figure 1: Theory of Change for the proposed project 3 Overview of South Caucasus region (Armenia and Georgia) South Caucasus Profile Figure 2: Map of Caucasus region 9. This project will be implemented in the South Caucasus region, with project activities focused in the Republics of Armenia and Georgia. Both countries are situated to the South of the High Caucasus mountain range that runs West to East along the Russian border. They are surrounded by Turkey to the West, Iran to the South and Azerbaijan to the East. Armenia is landlocked, whereas Georgia enjoys access to the Black sea coast. 10. The Republic of Armenia is a mountainous, landlocked country with the total area of 29,743 square km. The majority of Armenia’s territory (76.5%) is situated on the altitudes of 1000-2500 m above sea level with the lowest point at 380m in the gorge of Debed river and the highest point being Mount Aragats with an elevation of 4090m. Administratively, the country is divided into ten units (Marz), plus the capital Yerevan. In 2018, the population stood at approximately 3 million with approximately 37% of the population living in rural areas in 2018.1 In Armenia, the poverty rate in 2016 was 29.8%, while the World Bank forecast that the poverty rate would fall to 22.2% in 2019.2 Unemployment in Armenia remains high and volatile – 18%. Unemployment is mostly concentrated in urban areas, among the young and women. Youth unemployment (36.6%) is twice that of the population aged 25 to 64.3 11. Armenia is considered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as one of the 25 worldwide biodiversity hotspots.4 Most of the high biodiversity hotspots are linked to forests or forestlands. Due to intensive use, the level of anthropogenic impacts on natural landscapes in Armenia is high. Overexploitation has resulted in pollution and reduction of wild biodiversity, loss of habitats of certain species and changes in the services provided by ecosystems. 12. The Republic of Georgia is situated between Russia to the North, Azerbaijan in the East and Armenia and Turkey to the South. It borders the Black Sea in the West. The total area of Georgia is 69,700 square kilometres. Administratively, the country is divided into nine regions and one city. There are also two autonomous republics. The population of Georgia was approximately 3.7 million, with 41% of the population living in rural areas in 2018.5 The unemployment rate declined from 13.9 percent in 2017 to 12.7 percent in 2018. The poverty rate was 16 percent in 2017 (16.4% 6 in 2016) and is expected to fall to 13.4 per cent in 2019. 1 See https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS 2 See http://www.am.undp.org/content/armenia/en/home/sustainable-development.html 3 Ibid 4 As a part of the Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian Temperate Forests Ecoregion, which is listed by WWF as a Global 200 Ecoregion, the forests of Armenia have been identified as a global conservation priority. Additionally, significant shares of Armenia’s territory belong to the Caucasus and the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspots identified by Conservation International. 5 See https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS 6 ECA Macro Poverty Outlook, Spring 2019 (World Bank) - http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/896101492021924164/data-geo.pdf 4 13. Georgia’s landscape is varied - humid subtropical coastline, lowlands and wetlands, plains, semideserts, highlands, and mountains covered by forests and glaciers. Much of the landscape is mountainous, with 54 percent of land at an altitude over 1,000 m above sea level. Nearly 40 percent of land is covered by forests, mainly located in the mountainous areas. Georgia is a country rich in biodiversity, most of which can be found in the forests, freshwater habitats, marine and coastal ecosystems and high mountain habitats. Profile of forests in the South Caucasus 14. The South Caucasus is home to a varied range of forest landscapes (sub-tropical, temperate and coniferous) which support rich biodiversity. The forest patterns are set out in Figure 3 below. The Caucasus forest belt can be subdivided into three major elevation zones: broad-leaved forests (50–900m), coniferous forests (900–1700 m), high mountain subalpine forests (1700–2000 m) with krummholz forest at higher elevations (2000–2800 m).7 Figure 3: Overview of forest and landscapes in South Caucasus Region Source: Grid Arendal 15.