1 | P a g e 2008 SOFTWARE ENGINNERING OF WEB APPLICATIONS GROUP # 5 WEB BASED STOCK FORECASTERS This report describes the Stock Prediction System titled “TIMING THE MARKET” developed by our team which has various modules like Data Mining, Web Services, Neural Network Based Stock Prediction and Technical Indicators. SUBMITTED BY: AMARINDER CHEEMA ATEET VORA CHETAN JAIN PUNEET KATARIA RONAK SHAH SIDDHARTH WAGH 7 May, 2008 2 | P a g e ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is a moment of great pleasure and satisfaction for us to express our sense of profound gratitude to all people who have contributed in making our project work a rich experience. We convey our sincere thanks Prof. Ivan Marsic for giving us an opportunity to take up the project work and also helping us in all phases of the project work and providing our team sound encouragement. We are also thankful to him for the technical guidance, help and facilities provided to us for successful completion of our project work. 3 | P a g e BREAKDOWN OF RESPONSIBILITIES 4 | P a g e TABLE OF CONTENTS Breakdown of Responsibilities.....................................................................................................03 Summary of Changes...................................................................................................................07 Glossary of Terms………………………………………………………………………......................08 1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................11 1.1 Project Goals and Requirements.................................................................................12 1.2 System Requirements.................................................................................................13 1.3 Statistical comparison of our product with current software‟s in market…..................14 2. System Description.................................................................................................................15 2.1 System Block Diagram................................................................................................15 2.2 System Description and general Description...............................................................16 2.3 Use cases....................................................................................................................17 2.3.1 Use case Casual Description.........................................................................18 2.3.2 Functional Specification Requirement...........................................................19 2.3.3 Interaction Diagram of key use cases............................................................23 2.4 Activity Diagrams.........................................................................................................26 2.5 System Class Diagram................................................................................................31 2.5.1 Class Diagram Description............................................................................33 2.5.2 Class Diagram Attributes and Description.....................................................34 3. Data Mining.............................................................................................................................36 3.1 Need for Data Mining...................................................................................................36 3.2 Data Mining – An Overview.........................................................................................37 3.3 Features of the Fetch Script........................................................................................38 3.4 Current Price Fetch.....................................................................................................38 3.5 DB Schema Design.....................................................................................................39 4. Web services...........................................................................................................................40 4.1 Procedure for using Web Services..............................................................................43 4.1.1 High Level view of Web Services..................................................................43 4.1.2 Consuming a Web Service............................................................................45 4.1.3 Benefits of using ASP.net for creating Web Services....................................46 4.2 Web Service inclusion in project..................................................................................47 4.2.1 Detailed description of Web Services developed for the project...................48 4.3 Understanding WSDL..................................................................................................50 4.4 Soap Request and response.......................................................................................51 5. Stock Prediction using Neural Networks..................................................................................54 5.1 Neural Network Technology.........................................................................................54 5.1.1 Artificial Neural Network Approach................................................................55 5.1.2 Neural Network Training and Testing............................................................55 5.1.3 Neuron Models..............................................................................................57 5.2 Matlab(v7.1)Neural Network Toolbox...........................................................................59 5.3 Basic working of our Model..........................................................................................61 5.4 Detailed Description /Program Algorithm....................................................................62 5.5 Performance Evaluation..............................................................................................69 5 | P a g e 6. Stock prediction using indicators.............................................................................................70 6.1 Relative Strength Index...............................................................................................70 6.2 Stochastic Oscillator...................................................................................................71 6.3 Moving Averages........................................................................................................71 6.4 Price Momentum Oscillator........................................................................................72 6.5 Money Flow Index......................................................................................................72 6.6 Demarker Indicator.....................................................................................................73 6.7 Williams Indicator.......................................................................................................74 6.8 Commodity Channel Index.........................................................................................75 6.9 Aroon Indicator...........................................................................................................76 6.10 Rate of Change…………………………………………………………………..….........77 6.11 Moving Averages Convergence/Divergence (MACD)………………………………...78 6.12 Accumulation/Distribution Line………………..………………………………………....78 6.13 Price Channel……………………………………………………………………………...79 6.14 Ultimate Oscillator…………………….…………………………………………………..80 7. User Interface..........................................................................................................................82 7.1 Website Design...........................................................................................................83 History of Work…………………………………………………………...……………………………...85 Accomplishments.........................................................................................................................86 Shortcomings...............................................................................................................................88 Future Work.................................................................................................................................89 References...................................................................................................................................90 6 | P a g e TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Comparison of software‟s............................................................................................14 Figure 2: System Block Diagram............................................................................................... 15 Figure 3: Use Case Diagram..................................................................................................18 Figure 4: Use Case # 2 and #3 Interaction Diagram..................................................................24 Figure 5: Use Case # 5 Interaction Diagram.............................................................................25 Figure 6: Use Case # 7 Interaction Diagram..............................................................................26 Figure 7: Use Case # 1 Activity Diagram...................................................................................27 Figure 8: Use Case # 2 Activity Diagram...................................................................................28 Figure 9: Use Case # 3 Activity Diagram...................................................................................29