January 2014 Monthly Forecast 2 In Hindsight: Consensus Overview in the Security Council 3 Status Update since our December Forecast Jordan will preside over the Security Council in Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), by the 4 Syria January. Special Representative and UNOCI head, The presidency is planning an open debate on Aïchatou Mindaoudou, via videoconferencing 5 Sudan and South Sudan “War, its lessons, and the search for a permanent (VTC). peace” under the agenda item “Maintenance of Briefings in consultations are likely on: 7 Sudan (Darfur) International Peace and Security”, with historian • the work in Syria of the Organization for the 9 Central African Margaret MacMillan (Canada) as the main briefer. Prohibition of Chemical Weapons-UN Joint Republic An open debate on the Middle East is also planned Mission by its Special Coordinator Sigrid Kaag; 10 Democratic Republic of and the Secretary-General is expected to brief. • the situation in Sudan and South Sudan by the Congo Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely Special Envoy Haile Menkerios, most likely by 12 Burundi on: VTC; 13 Mali • the situation in the Democratic Republic of the • the work of the UN Peacekeeping Force in 15 Côte I’voire Congo (DRC) by the Special Representative Cyprus (UNFICYP) by Special Representative and head of the UN Organization Stabilization and UNFICYP head Lisa Buttenheim; 16 Cyprus Mission in the DRC, Martin Kobler, and the • the work of the UN Regional Centre for Pre- 17 Israel/Palestine Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Mary ventive Diplomacy for Central Asia by its head 18 Yemen Robinson; Miroslav Jenča; 20 Notable Dates • the situation in the Central African Republic • the situation in Yemen by Special Adviser Jamal (CAR) and needed changes in the mandate of Benomar; and Supplement Non-Consensus the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the • developments in the 1533 DRC Sanctions Decision-Making in the CAR (BINUCA) by Special Representative and Committee by its chair. A successor to the Security Council: An BINUCA head Babacar Gaye; departing chair, Ambassador Agshin Mehdiyev Abridged History • the situation in Mali by Albert Gerard Koenders, (Azerbaijan) had not been named at press time. the Special Representative and head of the UN Formal sessions will be needed to adopt resolu- Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mis- tions to renew: sion in Mali; • the mandate of BINUCA; • the Secretary-General’s report on the AU/UN • the mandate of UNFICYP; and Hybrid Operation in Darfur, by the Under- • the DRC sanctions regime and the mandate of Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations the Group of Experts assisting the 1533 DRC Hervé Ladsous; Sanctions Committee. • developments in Burundi by the Special Repre- An Arria formula meeting is planned by Luxem- sentative and head of the UN Office in Burundi, bourg and the UK on women’s participation in the Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, as well as by the chair Syrian transition. of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Burundi In addition to Jordan, four more elected mem- configuration, Ambassador Paul Seger (Swit- bers are joining the Council on 1 January: Chad, zerland); and Chile, Lithuania and Nigeria (succeeding Azerbai- • the Secretary-General’s report on the UN jan, Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo).• 20 December 2013 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Consensus in the Security Council Since the three vetoes by Russia and China On the other hand, the Council has had seen as marking a high point in US power. over Syria in 2011 and 2012 and the inability a much more consensual approach on Afri- The fact that the P3 have mostly accompa- of the Security Council to find a solution to can issues, with just 20.6 percent of Africa- nied the consensus or the enabling majorities the conflict, there has been a common per- related resolutions since 1990 not adopted adopting the resolutions may be a product of ception that the Council is divided. Likewise, by consensus. Excluding Sudan, this falls to their role as the pen holders on most Council following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, 11.1 percent, or just 14 resolutions on Africa. agenda items. the Council was viewed as having become This number drops even further when Libya Elected members have cast 23 total votes badly fractured. However, looking at deci- is excluded, the next least consensual African against adopted resolutions since 1990, an sions adopted, the Council is actually divided issue, with four non-consensus resolutions. average of once a year. However, Cuba alone on just a limited number of issues and oth- Cyprus, for decades not viewed as a divi- did so nine times in 1990-1991, whereas Tur- erwise largely operates by consensus (see the sive issue, has been responsible for seven key did so five times in 2009-2010. Regard- supplemental insert in this Forecast on Non- resolutions not adopted by consensus since ing abstentions, they have totaled 94 since Consensus Decision-Making in the Security 2009. 1990, and have become less frequent in recent Council: An Abridged History). Consensus in Council decision-making years. This downward trend is also noticeable Presidential statements require consen- seems to be the preferred mode even dur- in the multiple Council terms served by Bra- sus, and press statements are issued only ing years that generated bitter feelings among zil, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. with the agreement of all 15 members. All members. Despite recent divisions on Syria Among elected members, within a single sanctions committees, with a few excep- or prior to and following the 2003 Iraq war, term, Cuba has logged the greatest number tions, and working groups also operate by consensus resolutions during these periods of non-consensual votes, opposing nine res- consensus. Resolutions, which are put to a still prevailed at levels above 92 percent. Thus, olutions and abstaining on four during its vote, are the only Council outcome that can it seems that either the Council looks at the 1990-1991 term. Pakistan and Brazil have be adopted with or without the unanimity of merits of each situation instead of allowing been among the most frequent to break ranks the Council. Most resolutions, however, have divisions on specific issues to permeate into during multiple terms by abstaining or vot- been adopted by consensus: 93.5 percent of its other work or it makes a more concerted ing against 12 and 10 resolutions respectively. those adopted since 2000 to 15 December effort to at least appear united on other fronts. Differences can also be observed among 2013. Contrary to public perceptions, this The increase in consensus since 2000 can regions. Arab states have abstained or cast is a noticeable increase from 88.9 percent in be explained in part by a change in how Chi- dissenting votes 33 times. Latin American the 1990s, a period when the Security Coun- na votes: it abstained on 42 adopted resolu- and Caribbean states follow with 29 and cil was viewed as highly active and compara- tions during the 1990s whereas it has only Asian states, excluding Arab states, have with- tively more effective and less divided due to done so 16 times since 2000. This might indi- held affirmative votes 24 times. the end of the Cold War. cate that China is attaching more importance Sub-Saharan African countries, despite Of the issues on which decisions have to being aligned with Council decisions or being the most vociferous about the Council been adopted, only a few have generated fre- becoming more adept at getting what it wants not taking African positions into full account, quent division. Iraq and Bosnia-Herzegovina during the negotiation of resolutions. Russia have mostly voted in favor of Council reso- account for 34.1 percent of Council resolu- has been the second most frequently abstain- lutions, abstaining or casting negative votes tions adopted without consensus since 1990. ing permanent member since 1990, having 20 times, and on only four resolutions since Including the rest of the Middle East (Isra- done so on 40 resolutions. 2000. Until Azerbaijan abstained five times in el-Palestine and Lebanon) and the Balkans Interestingly, whereas France abstained or its 2012-2013 term, Eastern European states more broadly, these two regions account for did not vote on seven adopted resolutions had never broken consensus since 1990. 53.2 percent of the non-consensus resolu- since 1990, the UK has never done so on any Perhaps Council members today place tions adopted since 1990. of the adopted resolutions during this period. more of a premium on consensus. The argu- Moreover, Middle East resolutions have The UK, though, has abstained 13 times on ment for adopting resolutions by consensus also been adopted with the lowest levels of draft resolutions that failed to be adopted, is that when the Council has a united voice, it support, further reflecting Council divisive- nine of which accompanied US vetoes. It also makes it harder for the party targeted by the ness over this region. Over the last 23 years, abstained or opposed all six draft resolutions decision to play Council members against the Council has adopted only one resolution that missed obtaining nine affirmative votes each other. Of course, a potential downside with just the minimum nine votes required since 1990, the latest being the failed draft in pursuing resolutions with strict consensus and six resolutions with just 10 Council resolution requesting an ICC deferral on the is that stronger language is lost.