Forschungsbericht 2012-08 Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions Martin Schaefer Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Antriebstechnik Köln 235 Seiten 137 Bilder 70 Tabellen 133 Literaturstellen Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Doktor-Ingenieur der Fakultät für Maschinenbau der Ruhr-Universität Bochum von Martin Schaefer aus Nürnberg Bochum 2012 Dissertation eingereicht am: 07. März 2012 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 29. Juni 2012 Erster Referent: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Reinhard Mönig (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) Zweiter Referent: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Johannes Reichmuth (RWTH Aachen) PAGE I CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................. V LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................. XI LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS...............................................................XIV PREFACE.....................................................................................XIX 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................1 1.1 Objectives of this Study ..............................................................................................1 1.2 Abstract of Methodology .............................................................................................1 1.3 Summary of Results ...................................................................................................4 1.3.1 Overview on Application Studies............................................................................4 1.3.2 Emissions from Air Traffic 2000-2010....................................................................5 1.3.3 Forecast of Emissions from Air Traffic 2011-2030.................................................6 2 ECOLOGICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL BACKGROUND.............................9 2.1 Development of Air Traffic ..........................................................................................9 2.2 Climate Impact of Aviation Emissions.......................................................................11 2.3 Technology Measures to Limit Aviation Emissions...................................................15 2.3.1 Improving Aircraft Fuel Efficiency.........................................................................15 2.3.2 Reducing Engine NOx Emissions.........................................................................18 2.3.3 Optimizing Air Traffic Management and Aircraft Operations................................21 2.3.4 Alternative Fuels ..................................................................................................22 2.4 Approach and Focus of this Study............................................................................23 3 METHODOLOGY FOR AVIATION EMISSIONS CALCULATION .................25 3.1 Model Overview ........................................................................................................25 3.2 VarMission – Flight Mission and Emissions Module.................................................26 3.2.1 Overview ..............................................................................................................26 3.2.2 The BADA Aircraft Performance Model ...............................................................27 3.2.3 Flight Mission Simulation in VarMission...............................................................30 3.2.4 Emission Calculation in VarMission .....................................................................34 3.2.4.1 Overview on Calculation Methods...................................................................34 3.2.4.2 Emissions of CO2 and H2O..............................................................................34 3.2.4.3 Emissions of NOx, CO and HC ........................................................................35 3.2.4.4 Emissions of Soot / Black Carbon ...................................................................38 CONTENTS PAGE II 3.2.5 VarMission Validation.......................................................................................... 39 3.2.5.1 Mission Fuel Burn Validation .......................................................................... 39 3.2.5.2 Validation of Emissions Calculations.............................................................. 42 3.2.6 “Emission Profiles” – Look-up Tables of Aircraft Emissions................................ 44 3.3 Air Traffic Emissions Module ................................................................................... 46 3.3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 46 3.3.2 OAG Schedules and Flight Movements .............................................................. 47 3.3.3 Load Factors and Payload .................................................................................. 48 3.3.4 ATM Efficiency .................................................................................................... 51 3.3.5 Fuel Burn and Emissions of Global Air Traffic..................................................... 53 3.3.5.1 Procedure for Calculating Fuel Burn and Emissions ...................................... 53 3.3.5.2 Simplifications and Uncertainties.................................................................... 57 3.3.6 Contents of the Flight Movements and Emissions Database.............................. 59 3.3.7 Link to the FATE Global Inventory Software ....................................................... 60 3.4 Air Traffic Emissions Forecast Module .................................................................... 62 3.4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 62 3.4.2 Simplifying Assumptions for the Forecast ........................................................... 63 3.4.3 Traffic Growth Model ........................................................................................... 66 3.4.4 Fleet Rollover Model ........................................................................................... 68 3.4.4.1 Approach and Assumptions............................................................................ 68 3.4.4.2 Aircraft Retirements ........................................................................................ 71 3.4.4.3 Aircraft Deliveries and Assignment to Flight Movements ............................... 75 3.4.4.4 Aircraft Production Periods ............................................................................. 81 3.4.5 Models of Future Aircraft-Engine Combinations.................................................. 82 3.4.5.1 Approach and Overview ................................................................................. 82 3.4.5.2 Widebody Aircraft of the Near Future ............................................................. 83 3.4.5.3 Narrowbody Aircraft of the Near Future.......................................................... 87 3.4.5.4 A Generic Narrowbody Aircraft Family of the 2020s....................................... 90 3.4.5.5 Aircraft Representation for Fuel Burn and Emissions Calculation .................. 94 3.4.6 Other Assumptions.............................................................................................. 95 3.4.6.1 Fuel Efficiency Improvement by Serial Modification ....................................... 95 3.4.6.2 Reduction of NOx Emissions by Improved Engine Combustors ..................... 96 3.4.6.3 Load Factor Development .............................................................................. 99 3.4.6.4 Improvement of ATM Efficiency.................................................................... 100 CONTENTS PAGE III 4 AIR TRAFFIC EMISSIONS 2000-2030 .............................................101 4.1 Overview on Application Studies ............................................................................101 4.2 Air Traffic Emissions 2000-2010.............................................................................102 4.2.1 Results Summary...............................................................................................102 4.2.2 Transport Performance ......................................................................................103 4.2.3 Fuel Consumption ..............................................................................................104 4.2.4 NOx Emissions ...................................................................................................106 4.2.5 CO and HC Emissions .......................................................................................108 4.2.6 Emissions of Soot / Black Carbon......................................................................110 4.3 Forecast of Air Traffic Emissions 2011-2030..........................................................112 4.3.1 Results Summary...............................................................................................112 4.3.2 Transport Performance ......................................................................................113 4.3.3 Fleet Composition ..............................................................................................115 4.3.4 Fuel Consumption ..............................................................................................119 4.3.5 NOx Emissions ...................................................................................................122