HTML5 and the Future of Adobe Flash Gartner RAS Core Research Note G00175373, Ray Valdes, David Mitchell Smith, Eric Knipp, 30 April 2010, R3384 11252010 HTML5 poses a threat to Adobe Flash (and to other rich Internet application [RIA] plug-ins). However, the dynamics are complex, and the time frames longer than one might expect. Key Findings • Statements about HTML5’s impact on Flash are, in most cases, applicable to other plug- in RIA technologies, such as Silverlight and client-side Java. • Concerns about Adobe Flash, with regard to performance, robustness and security, should take into account the context of competitive platforms, which encounter many of the same issues. • Millions of websites use Flash, and some high-growth, high-traffic sites depend on Flash in a business-critical context. • HTML5 will become the mainstream of the Web during the next decade. • HTML5 is a potential threat to the continued adoption of plug-in-based RIA approaches, including Flash. • Adobe is responding to this threat, and its continued success depends on how well it executes. Recommendations • Enterprises should try to avoid becoming dependent on any one browser or client-side technology, especially for Internet-facing applications. • Enterprise developers should “design for standards” and not browsers or runtimes. • Developers should favor the lightest-weight technology that will meet their requirements. • Enterprise designers should specify user interaction patterns and workflows in a technology-independent manner, and only in later phases of the project should they map these interaction sequences to specific technologies. 2 • Architects should consider hybrid approaches (HTML plus There is a message in the media that Flash is a subpar HTML5 plus Flash or Silverlight) as alternatives to the monolithic technology. The concerns that have appeared in the media use of client-side technology; in any event, architects must for not allowing Flash on the iPhone and iPad is that Flash is ensure “graceful degradation” that preserves the usefulness of unstable, has low performance, is unsecure and drains battery life. the application in scenarios when higher-order RIA technology However, there is little evidence that Flash differs from the other is unavailable. rich, complex technology available from other vendors. Tests published in February 2010 by the Streaming Learning Center show that Flash is roughly equivalent to HTML5 in terms of CPU • Before purchasing or committing to a new user interface utilization and performance (i.e., better in some configurations and (UI) technology or platform, enterprises should first invest worse in others). in a user-centered design process based on objective data about user behavior. Despite the message, the reality is that Flash is ubiquitous and has a solid track record. Flash is found in 97% of Internet- ANALYSIS connected devices, and has been in use in one form or another Recently, Gartner has received many inquiries from end-user since 1996. Gartner estimates that Flash is used in 70% of the organizations seeking to make strategic platform decisions top 100 websites (although usually in a superficial form). There are regarding HTML5 and its impact on the future of Flash. The trigger millions of monthly active users of Flash-based video (e.g., YouTube for this interest was the announcement by Apple in January 2010 and Yahoo), Flash-based gaming sites and game portals (such as of its iPad tablet computer. This announcement elicited many Zynga, Pogo, Kongregate and Omgpop), social-networking sites reactions from various industry quarters. Conspicuously absent (Club Penguin and Imvu) and video chat sites (Stickam, WooMe from the iPad platform was Adobe Flash. This absence dashed the and ChatRoulette). Zynga alone claims 230 million unique monthly hopes of Flash advocates and continues the precedent established users, and enjoys annual revenue estimated at $400-plus million by the iPhone, a platform from which Flash was also excluded. The and a private-company valuation that could exceed $2 billion. fierce debate that emerged in the wake of the announcement was If Flash has unacceptable levels of performance or efficiency, in regard to the future of Adobe Flash, and whether the future Web these agile, fast-moving companies (or their competitors) would and mobile RIAs will be built with HTML5, rather than Flash or other quickly shift to alternative platforms, and, to date, they have not “heavy RIA” alternatives. embarked on such a process. Some small players, such as NPR and Brightcove, have announced a shift away from Flash. However, Opposing perspectives were voiced in blogs and online forums. the driver behind the decision was not any of the usual rationales On the one hand are Flash opponents and skeptics, who view (performance, stability, etc). Instead, the stated driver was Flash’s the technology as being past its prime. These opponents hold a absence from the iPhone. Also, with regard to security, the track negative view, not just of the technology, but also of some Flash- record of Flash has been better than average, when compared with based content (i.e., interactive banner ads and splash pages). On other widely used Internet technologies, such as Internet Explorer. the other side are pro-Flash advocates who see genuine value in a In terms of adoption, Flash has succeeded in the market, while technology platform that supports rich interactions, has ubiquitous contemporaneous RIA alternatives faded (client-side Java, ActiveX, penetration, maintains a solid track record, and goes beyond the the initial release of Windows Presentation Foundation [WPF], etc.) current and near-term limitations in HTML5. Any large powerful application will consume CPU and battery Regardless of one’s advocacy for Flash or HTML5, here are key power, whether written in Flash, Silverlight or HTML5. Simple aspects of the situation. applications consume minimal resources, and most HTML5 and Flash applications are simple. Complex applications with high The future of plug-in-based RIA is not just about Flash. interactivity and large amounts of computation will consume CPU Any discussion of Flash should also (depending on the level of and battery no matter what technology they are implemented detail) bring into the discussion other plug-in-based RIAs – for in. Some applications may be better than others in this regard example, Microsoft Silverlight and client-side Java. Although – perhaps even 20% or 30% better – but such differences are these approaches differ with regard to vendor portfolio, market incremental, not game-changers. penetration, installed base, etc., many of the issues that impact Flash also impact these other approaches. For example, none The “quality of experience” theme regarding Flash’s absence runs on the iPhone or iPad today. Although Flash has broader from the iPhone is inconsistent. The iPhone system has its penetration and a more solid track record than alternatives, there own security issues, and many third-party applications suffer are no screeds published in blogs about the imminent “death of from performance problems. Regarding the topic of poor quality Silverlight” due to its absence on iPhone and iPad devices. and performance, many thousands of applications in the App © 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner’s research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. 3 Store are written by novice or semiskilled programmers, or those (users get “banner blindness,” and are habituated to skip useless who are seeking a quick return on investment. Among the user introduction or splash pages). Regardless of its value, much of this reviews of iPhone applications, even the successful ones, are many simple interactive content could be replaced by today’s HTML5 complaints about applications crashing or performing poorly. working subset. Apple’s divergence from Adobe is not a recent phenomenon. The working subset of HTML5 has nowhere near the power The Preview application used to view PDF files is Apple’s long- of Flash. Many advanced effects are only available in Flash, standing replacement for Adobe Reader on OS X, with code Silverlight or Java. For example, Google, which is driving HTML5, that dates back to the days of Display PostScript and the NeXT relies on Flash in Google Maps (for the Street View) and in Gmail Computer. Based on this 15-year history, it appears that the (for the multiple-file upload capability). Tens of thousands of Flash decision not to allow Flash on the iPhone is unlikely to change games on the Web would be difficult to do (in a performant way) anytime soon. Regardless of history, Apple’s resistance to Flash with HTML5. Microsoft Silverlight’s Deep Zoom feature would be may have more to do with RIA technology’s potential to disrupt difficult, if not impossible, to replicate using only HTML5. Apple’s monetization mechanism – the App Store – than any real or perceived shortcomings in Adobe’s technology. This supposition is It’s not just about features, but also about deployed infrastructure. supported by Apple’s reported decision on 8 April 2010 to modify This benefits Flash. A pragmatic perspective should look at the the developer agreement for iPhone SDK 4.0, to mandate that numerous tools, ad engines, business processes, infrastructures and applications for iPhone can only be written in a small number of platforms that support and/or enable Flash-based advertising.