Report WEEKLY PANDEMIC TRACKER PRESENTED BY th DATE JuneNUMÉRO 22 , DE2020 PROJET METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology. From June 19th to June 21st, 2020 1,521 Canadians and 1,002 Americans, 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to gender, age, mother tongue, region, education level and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the population. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (Web panel in this case). However for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,521 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.51%, 19 times out of 20, while a probability sample of 1,002 would have a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The research results presented here are in full compliance with the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. 2 METHODOLOGY Notes on Reading this Report The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers. In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents. A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix. If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected] or Jack Jedwab, President & CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies: [email protected] 3 IN THE NEWS CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE VOTING INTENTIONS - FEDERAL ELECTIONS CTC37. If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for the ... Base: All respondents (n=1,521), except for the Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only INTENTIONS BEFORE THE COVID-19 CRISIS TOTAL January TOTAL Decided ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ 22nd, Gap Canada voters 2020 Weighted n = 1,521 1,239 79 278 482 86 143 171 631 607 329 409 500 1,289 Unweighted n = 1,521 1,244 75 323 500 109 110 127 662 582 330 408 506 1,327 ... Liberal Party of Canada 32% 39% 51% 39% 41% 30% 25% 43% 35% 43% 34% 41% 41% 31% +8 ... Conservative Party of Canada 23% 28% 24% 10% 32% 47% 45% 27% 34% 23% 24% 26% 33% 32% -4 ... New Democratic Party of Canada 15% 19% 14% 12% 20% 13% 26% 24% 18% 20% 29% 19% 11% 19% - ... Bloc Québécois 6% 7% - 31% - - - - - - - - - 8% -1 ... Green Party of Canada 4% 5% 10% 4% 5% 5% 1% 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3% 8% -3 … another party 2% 2% 0% 3% 3% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% - I would not vote 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I would cancel my vote 2% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I don’t know 10% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Refusal 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 CONSERVATIVE PARTY'S POSITIONS CTC139. Would you be more likely or less likely to consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada if their new leader adopted the following policy positions: Base: All respondents (n=1,521) 32% A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada to support Canada’s Climate Change strategy 11% 26% A plan to improve relations with Canada’s Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims 13% A clear commitment that a Conservative government will not re-open 23% the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re- open the abortion issue 13% More likely Less likely *Results exclude respondents who answered: "It will not change likelihood to support the party" and "Don‘t know/prefer not to answer". 6 CONSERVATIVE PARTY'S POSITION - Details CTC139. Would you be more likely or less likely to consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada if their new leader adopted the following policy positions: Base: All respondents (n=1,521) TOTAL Sub- ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural CANADA urban Weighted n = 1,521 104 357 584 99 171 206 415 519 588 630 582 296 Unweighted n = 1,521 100 420 601 125 125 150 423 511 587 635 585 288 A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada to support Canada’s Climate Change strategy More likely 32% 27% 33% 29% 34% 39% 31% 45% 27% 27% 31% 34% 28% Less likely 11% 8% 8% 13% 10% 14% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% A plan to improve relations with Canada’s Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims More likely 26% 26% 24% 27% 24% 31% 25% 35% 23% 23% 27% 26% 26% Less likely 13% 11% 12% 12% 17% 12% 17% 15% 11% 12% 12% 14% 9% A clear commitment that a Conservative government will not re-open the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re-open the abortion issue More likely 23% 19% 21% 24% 28% 23% 21% 27% 21% 21% 21% 26% 21% Less likely 13% 10% 13% 14% 11% 15% 12% 16% 12% 11% 13% 14% 10% *Results exclude respondents who answered: "It will not change likelihood to support the party" and "Don‘t know/prefer not to answer". 7 BEST LEADER FOR THE CPC CTC140. Which of the following public figures would make the best leader for the Conservative Party of Canada? Base: All respondents (n=1,521) 70% 18% 5% 4% 2% Peter MacKay Erin O’Toole Leslyn Lewis Derek Sloan Don’t know / Refusal TOTAL Sub- ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural CANADA urban Weighted n = 1,521 104 357 584 99 171 206 415 519 588 630 582 296 Unweighted n = 1,521 100 420 601 125 125 150 423 511 587 635 585 288 Peter MacKay 18% 24% 16% 16% 22% 24% 18% 10% 18% 24% 17% 21% 18% Erin O’Toole 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 8% 4% 6% 5% Leslyn Lewis 4% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% Derek Sloan 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% Don’t know / Refusal 70% 63% 76% 70% 67% 60% 73% 79% 72% 62% 73% 66% 72% TOTAL LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC Others – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS CANADA Weighted n = 1,521 483 231 86 351 58 29 Unweighted n = 1,521 493 211 111 345 62 22* Peter MacKay 18% 19% 13% 16% 30% 11% 18% Erin O’Toole 5% 3% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% Leslyn Lewis 4% 3% 6% 0% 8% 3% 11% Derek Sloan 2% 1% 1% 0% 5% 3% 5% Don’t know / Refusal 70% 73% 76% 74% 47% 73% 56% 8 *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. BEST LEADER TO MANAGE KEY CHALLENGES CTC141. Who do you think is best to manage...? Base: All respondents (n=1,521) 18% 6% ...Canada's economic development 3% 2% 14% 6% ...a health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic 4% 2% 15% 6% ...job creation 3% 3% 16% 6% …government spending and the deficit 3% 3% Peter MacKay Erin O’Toole Leslyn Lewis Derek Sloan *Results exclude respondents who answered: "Don‘t know/prefer not to answer". 9 BEST LEADER TO MANAGE KEY CHALLENGES - Details CTC141. Who do you think is best to manage...? Base: All respondents (n=1,521) TOTAL Sub- ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural CANADA urban Weighted n = 1,521 104 357 584 99 171 206 415 519 588 630 582 296 Unweighted n = 1,521 100 420 601 125 125 150 423 511 587 635 585 288 ...Canada's economic development Peter Mackay 18% 21% 13% 19% 22% 19% 19% 10% 17% 25% 16% 22% 16% Erin O’Toole 6% 4% 6% 5% 5% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% Leslyn Lewis 3% 5% 0% 3% 4% 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 5% Derek Sloan 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% …a health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic Peter Mackay 14% 16% 9% 14% 20% 18% 17% 9% 12% 20% 13% 15% 15% Erin O’Toole 6% 4% 6% 7% 4% 7% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 8% 5% Leslyn Lewis 4% 5% 0% 5% 4% 8% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% Derek Sloan 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% …job creation Peter Mackay 15% 21% 10% 15% 21% 16% 19% 9% 14% 22% 15% 17% 15% Erin O’Toole 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 8% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5% 8% 5% Leslyn Lewis 3% 4% 2% 3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% Derek Sloan 3% 0% 1% 3% 1% 6% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% ... government spending and the deficit Peter Mackay 16% 18% 9% 15% 22% 22% 20% 10% 13% 22% 13% 19% 15% Erin O’Toole 6% 4% 5% 7% 4% 8% 3% 4% 6% 7% 5% 7% 6% Leslyn Lewis 3% 4% 1% 4% 4% 5% 3% 1% 4% 4% 2% 4% 4% Derek Sloan 3% 1% 2% 2% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 10 LEADERSHIP TRACTION ON VOTING INTENTIONS CTC37B.