FINAL REPORT Camp Fire Regional Economic Impact Analysis January 2021 Prepared for With generous funding provided by North Valley Community Foundation (NVCF) Sierra Nevada Brewing Company United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Prepared by Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. The Economics of Land Use EPS #192148 Cover page photo sources: (top to bottom) www.enr.com Tom Hilton norcalwater.org/Jim Morris www2.calstate.edu Acknowledgements The Consultant Team of Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) and Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc) would like to extend our appreciation to our client partner, 3CORE, and the members of the Tri-County Region who contributed information and data to support the successful completion of this Regional Economic Impact Study. 3CORE Team Courtney Farrell, Project Manager, Laura Page, Former Disaster California State University, Chico Recovery Manager, Town of Patty Hess, Executive Director Geographical Informational Paradise Center Marc Nemanic, Associate Director Annie Rafferty, Director, The Training Place, Butte College Chelsea Irvine, Community Brent Foster, Senior Real Property Resource Manager and Project Appraiser, Butte County Manager Donald Rust, Planning & Lauren Gill, Former Town Community Development Dennis Ivey, Contract Employee Manager, Town of Paradise Services Director, Glenn County and Former Town of Paradise Assistant City Manager Eric Gustafson, Public Works Fleet Katie Simmons, Disaster Recovery Manager, City of Chico Director, Town of Paradise Valerie Coletti, Former Disaster Recovery Coordinator Jennifer Harris, Human Resources Mark Sorensen, City Manager, City Manager, Clock Shark of Biggs Tri-County Region Casey Hatcher, Deputy County Steve Stark, Chief Executive Stakeholders Administrative Officer, Butte Officer, Orchard Hospital County Maitreya Badami, Roadmap Audrey Taylor, President & Chief to Recovery Local Coordinator, Traci Holt, Executive Director, Executive Officer, Chabin Concepts United Policyholders Alliance for Workforce Development Amy Bergstrand, Housing Tom Taylor, Superintendent, Management Analyst III, City of Paradise Unified School District Oroville Richard Hunt, Principal, Peloton Research + Economics Todd Thalhamer, CalRecycle Tyler Boyle, Staff, California State University, Chico Geographical Meegan Jessee, Deputy Chief Katy Thoma, Executive Director, Informational Center Administrative Officer, Butte Chico Chamber of Commerce County Charles Brooks, Executive Director, Mark Thorp, Membership & Rebuild Paradise Alexandros (Joey) Kalofonos, Events, Paradise Ridge Chamber Human Resources Manager, of Commerce Andrea Campos, Director of Cleanrite-Buildrite Program Administration, NorTEC Jovanni Tricerri, Vice President, Megan Kurtz, Communications North Valley Community Peter Carr, City Manager, City of Coordinator, California State Foundation Orland University, Chico Brendan Vieg, Community Chris Constantin, Former Assistant Barry Long, Principal, Urban Development Director - Planning City Manager, City of Chico Design Associates & Housing, City of Chico Chris Copeland, Program Marc Mattox, Public Works Mike Wallace, Principal, Fehr & Peers Officer, North Valley Community Director, Town of Paradise Foundation Gina Will, Former Administrative Kristina Miller, City Manager, City Services Director/Town Treasurer, Michael Cross, Executive Director, of Corning Town of Paradise NorTEC Monica Nolan, Executive Director, Tim Williams, Administrative Colette Curtis, Assistant to the Paradise Ridge Chamber of Director, Adventist Health Town Manager, Town of Paradise Commerce Mike Wiltermood, President & Scott De Moss, County Mark Orme, City Manager, City of Chief Executive Officer, Enloe Administrative Officer, County of Chico Hospital Glenn Brendan Ottoboni, Director of Linda Zorn, Executive Director Scott Dowell, Administrative Public Works - Engineering, City Economic and Workforce Services Director, City of Chico of Chico Development, Butte College Acronyms and Abbreviations ADU DOF Accessory Dwelling Unit California Department of Finance ALE DOT Alternative Living Expenses Department of Transportation AWD DTSC Alliance for Workforce Development California Department of Toxic Substances Control BCAG Butte County Association of Governments EAP Employee Assistance Program BRC Building Resiliency Center EDD Employment Development Department CAL Fire California Department of Forestry and Fire EDU Protection Equivalent Dwelling Units CalOES EPA California Office of Emergency Services U.S. Environmental Protection Agency CalRecycle EPS California Department of Resources Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Recycling and Recovery FEMA CDI Federal Emergency Management Agency California Department of Insurance FHWA CEDS Federal Highway Administration Regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy Fire November 2018 Camp Fire CGE Computable General Equilibrium FRHC Feather River Health Center Chamber Paradise Ridge Chamber of Commerce FTEs Full-Time Equivalents Consultant Team Collectively, EPS and IEc FY Fiscal Year COVID 19 Coronavirus Disease of 2019 GDP Gross Domestic Product CSU California State University GRP Gross Regional Product DIFs Development Impact Fees HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Acronyms and Abbreviations (continued) HR Peloton Human Resources Peloton Research + Economics HUD PG&E Housing and Urban Development Pacific Gas & Electric Hwy 32 PID California State Highway 32 Paradise Irrigation District Hwy 70 PUSD California State Highway 70 Paradise Unified School District Hwy 99 Region California State Highway 99 Tri-County Region Hwy 149 RVs California State Highway 149 Recreational Trailers Hwy 162 SB 156 Highway 162 Senate Bill 156 I-5 SC-OR Interstate 5 Sewerage Commission Oroville Region IEc SR 191 Industrial Economics, Inc. California State Route 191 LQs State Location Quotients State of California MGD Town Million Gallons per Day Town of Paradise MHUs ULI Manufacturing Housing Units Urban Land Institute MVIL UNU-IHDP Motor Vehicle In-Lieu United Nations University International Human Dimensions Program NAICS North American Industry Classification USDA System United States Department of Agriculture NoRTEC VOCs Northern Rural Training and Employment Volatile Organic Compounds Consortium NVCF North Valley Community Foundation THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Table of Contents 1 Introduction and Executive Summary 1 Introduction 1 Objectives of the Study 2 Study Area 2 Study Period 2 Key Findings 4 Organization of the Report 15 2 Tri-County Region Pre-Camp Fire 17 Introduction to the Tri-County Region 17 Pre-Fire Socioeconomic Profile of the Region 20 Pre-Fire Socioeconomic Profile of Paradise 29 3 The Camp Fire Event and Immediate Response 35 Camp Fire Event 35 Immediate Demographic and Housing Impacts in the Region 40 Immediate Regional Response and Jurisdictional Impacts 45 4 Short-Term Economic Impact of the Camp Fire 53 Summary Conclusions 53 Challenges in Measuring the Economic Impact of the Camp Fire 57 Methodology 60 Key Assumptions and Results 65 Conclusions and Limitations 74 Short-Term Growth Projections, Post-Fire Considerations, 5 and Next Steps 77 Short-Term Growth Projections 77 Post-Fire Considerations 85 Conclusions and Next Steps 102 Table 2-1 Regional Base-Sector Employment (2018) 26 Table 2-2 Paradise Base-Sector Employment (2018) 32 Table 3-1 Structures Damaged by Damage Category 36 Table 3-2 Structures Destroyed by Type of Structure 37 Tables Table 3-3 Tri-County Regional Population Trends, Post Camp Fire 41 Table 3-4 Tri-County Regional Housing Trends Post-Camp Fire 43 Table 4-1 Estimated First Year (2019) Change in GRP Following the Camp Fire 53 Table 4-2 Economic Impact of the Camp Fire on the Fire Footprint: Value Added (Income-Based Estimate) Approach 67 Table 4-3 Economic Impact of the Camp Fire on the Fire Footprint: Final Demand (Expenditure-Based Estimate) Approach 67 Table 4-4 Estimated Number of Chico Employees Lost Because of the Camp Fire 70 Table 4-5 Economic Impact of the Camp Fire on the City of Chico 71 Table 4-6 Economic Impact of the Camp Fire on the Tri-County Region 73 Table 5-1 Overview of Projection Data Sources 78 Table 5-2 Regional Short-Term Population, Housing, and Employment Projections 79 Table 5-3 Regional Short-Term Employment Projections by Industry 84 Table 5-4 Town of Paradise: Three Year Pre-Fire Trends for General Fund Revenues and Expenses 98 Table 5-5 Town of Paradise: Percent Change in Revenues for Primary General Fund Revenue Sources 99 Table 5-6 Town of Paradise: Approved Plan for Use of PG&E Settlement Funds 99 Figure 2-1 County Population 20 Figure 2-2 Regional Economic Statistics 21 Figure 2-4 Race and Ethnicity Composition 22 Figure 2-3 Median Age 22 Figures Figure 2-5 Regional Labor Force Totals and Percent Change by Industry 23 Figure 2-6 Regional Labor Force Totals and Percent Change by Occupation 24 Figure 2-7 2018 Regional Employment by Industry and 2015 Comparison 26 Figure 2-8 Regional Labor Force Totals and Percent Change by Industry 28 Figure 2-9 2018 Paradise Employment by Industry and 2015 Comparison 30 Figure 2-10 Nonresidential Inventory in Region and Paradise as Percentage of Region 33 Figure 3-1 Real Estate Trends: Paradise 38 Figure 4-1 Camp Fire Economic Events: First Year Post-Fire 64 Figure 5-1 Location of Displaced Ridge Residents by Age 85 Figure 5-2 Location of Displaced Ridge Residents by Household Income 86 Figure 5-3 Comparison of Retail Center Types 97 Map 1-1 Tri-County Region Counties and Communities 3 Map 2-1 Tri-County Region Context 17