MARCO Research and Innovation Action (RIA) This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730272. Start date : 2016-11-01 Duration : 24 Months Climate vulnerability analysis at NUTS2 scale Authors : Mr. Per SKOUGAARD KASPERSEN (DTU) Kirsten Halsnæs (DTU), Lisa Bay (DTU), Mads Lykke Dømgaard (DTU), Bjørn Maaløe Torsvik MARCO - D4.1 - Issued on 2017-11-27 08:09:11 by DTU MARCO - D4.1 - Issued on 2017-11-27 08:09:11 by DTU MARCO - Contract Number: 730272 MArket Research for a Climate Services Observatory Document title Climate vulnerability analysis at NUTS2 scale Mr. Per SKOUGAARD KASPERSEN Kirsten Halsnæs (DTU), Lisa Bay (DTU), Mads Lykke Author(s) Dømgaard (DTU), Bjørn Maaløe Torsvik Number of pages 58 Document type Deliverable Work Package WP4 Document number D4.1 Issued by DTU Date of completion 2017-11-27 08:09:11 Dissemination level Public Summary Deliverable 4.1 It includes the main report and two appendixes Approval Date By 2018-01-11 17:11:13 Mr. Steve HOWARD (KMatrix) 2018-01-12 15:58:30 Dr. Thanh-Tam LE (CKIC) MARCO - D4.1 - Issued on 2017-11-27 08:09:11 by DTU Table of contents Key Findings ................................................................................................................................. 4 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 4 2 Analysis of extreme climate events in Europe from international disaster databases ............ 6 2.1 European Severe Weather Database .......................................................................................... 9 2.2 Dartmouth Flood Observatory ................................................................................................. 13 2.3 The international disaster database ......................................................................................... 16 2.4 Münich RE NatCatSERVICE ....................................................................................................... 27 3 Examples of European economic sectors vulnerable to the impacts of climate extremes .... 39 3.1 General vulnerability indicators ............................................................................................... 39 3.2 Economically vulnerable sectors ............................................................................................... 42 4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 53 5 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................ 54 List of Tables Table 1. Area and population data for European countries included in the vulnerability analysis, data from 2015 (The World Bank, 2017). .................................................................................. 9 Table 2. Observed annual heavy rainfall events for the period 01-01-2010 to 03-05-2017 for 35 selected countries in Europe. The total number of events for each country is calculated as the sum of unique rainfall events for all individual NUTS 2 regions within each country. .............. 12 Table 3.Observed large flood events per country from 01-01-1985 to 19-05-2017, based on the GAALFE dataset. ..................................................................................................................... 15 Table 4. Economic losses, occurrences and fatalities from meteorological events in Europe 1980- 2016 (EM-DAT). ....................................................................................................................... 19 Table 5. Economic losses, occurrences and fatalities from climatological events in Europe 1980- 2016 (EM-DAT). ....................................................................................................................... 20 Table 6. Economic losses, occurrences and fatalities from hydrological events in Europe 1980- 2016 (EM-DAT) ........................................................................................................................ 22 Table 7. Economic losses, occurrences and fatalities from meteorological, climatological and hydrological events in Europe 1980-2016 (EM-DAT). ............................................................. 24 Table 8. Economic losses and fatalities caused by meteorological natural catastrophes from 1980- 2016. Losses per person and fatalities per million inhabitants calculated using population data for 2016 (Münich RE). .............................................................................................................. 30 Table 9. Economic losses and fatalities caused by climatological natural catastrophes from 1980- 2016. Losses per person and fatalities per million inhabitants calculated using population data for 2016 (Münich RE). .............................................................................................................. 32 Table 10. Economic losses and fatalities caused by hydrological natural catastrophes from 1980- 2016. Losses per person and fatalities per million inhabitants calculated using population data for 2016 (Münich RE). .............................................................................................................. 34 Table 11. Economic losses, occurrences and fatalities from meteorological, climatological and hydrological events in Europe 1980-2016 (Münich RE). ......................................................... 36 Table 12. NACE sectors and additional relevant sectors. We present case studies for the highlighted (green) sectors in the following sections: * areas/segments where climate services are highly relevant, which are not covered in official NACE sectors. ** Task 5.2 covers both real estate and construction according to the description in the detailed work plan of MARCO project. *** These sectors are only included in Appendix 1. .................................................... 44 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730272 Vulnerability analysis to todays climate risks List of Figures Figure 1. Conceptual illustration of the benefits of climate services in relation to reducing damage losses from extreme climate events. ......................................................................................... 5 Figure 2. Country borders and geographical sub-regions of Europe (Eurovoc, 2017)...................... 8 Figure 3. Spatial distribution of six heavy rain reports (represented by blue dots) from the ESWD for 01-06-2015 from 18:53-19:09, all reporting the same heavy rainfall event. ....................... 10 Figure 4. Observed annual heavy rainfall events for the period 01-01-2010 to 03-05-2017 for (a) individual NUTS 2 regions and (b) countries in Europe. For Iceland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Malta, NUTS 2 and country borders coincide. .................................................................. 11 Figure 5. Observed annual heavy rainfall events for the period 01-01-2010 to 03-05-2017 for geographical sub-regions in Europe, (a) summarized from NUTS 2 borders, (b) summarized from country borders. ............................................................................................................... 13 Figure 6. All large flood events affecting European countries from 01-01-1985 to 19-05-2017. (a) Polygons of the extent of the large floods, (b) centroid point of the areas affected by large flood events. At both figures, only features inside the country borders are included, although some of the flood events naturally extend outside these borders. ........................................... 14 Figure 7. Spatial distribution of large flood events on NUTS 2 regions, from 01-01-1985 to 19-05- 2017, based on the GAALFE dataset. ..................................................................................... 16 Figure 8. Average annual number of large flood events during the period 01.01.1985 to 19.05.2017 based on NUTS 2 borders, i.e. large flood events count once for each NUTS 2 region affected. The NUTS 2 regions/countries are categorized into European sub-regions according to the Eurovoc classification Figure 2. .................................................................... 16 Figure 9. Occurrences of and fatalities and economic losses from meteorological events (extreme temperature/storms) in Europe 1980-2016, (a) number of meteorological events, (b) average annual economic losses (million €/year), (c) average annual fatalities, (EM-DAT). ................. 18 Figure 10. Occurrences of and fatalities and economic losses from climatological events (drought/wildfire) in Europe 1980-2016, (a) number of climatological events, (b) average annual economic losses (million €/year), (c) fatalities (EM-DAT). ........................................... 21 Figure 11. Occurrences of and fatalities and economic losses from hydrological events (flood/landslide/wave action) in Europe 1980-2016, (a) number of hydrological events, (b) average annual economic losses (million €/year), (c) annual fatalities (EM-DAT)................... 23 Figure 12. Annual economic losses in (a) million €/year, (b) €/inhabitant/year, (c) percentage of GDP and (d) annual fatalities from meteorological, climatological and hydrological events for different