FERTILITY AND FAMILY PLANNING IN HUAIBEI PLAIN ANHUI PROVINCE, CHINA 1982 YANG QUANHE A PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIRMENTS OF THE MASTER OF ARTS DEGREE IN DEMOGRAPHY THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY MAY 1985 TO MY PARENTS DECLARATION Unless otherwise stated this subthesis is all my own work.. /•' i YANG QUANHE May, 1985 iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe a great debt to all people from whom I received help during my work. I am greatful to Dr. Lucas, my supervisor, and Penny Kane, my adviser, for their energetic and valuable supervison over the entire period I was engaged in this study. I would like to thank Dr. Ruzicka, Dr. G. Jones, Dr. G. Santow and Dr. T.Hull for our many discussions related to my study. My thanks also go to Ms. C. McMurray and Dr. A1asdair.Gibb for the English correction of my thesis and to Ms. C. Mehkek f o r her much h e lp . I would also like to thank Dr. W. Mertens, former adviser to the Population Research and Training Program in China (1980-183). Without his help I could not have studied in Australia. Finally, my greatest thanks are to my wife, Mrs. Yang Huaiguang , and to my friends in China who helped me to collect and code the original data set. iv ABSTRACT This thesis falls naturally into two parts. The first part is concerned with the level and trend of fertility in Huaibei Plain, Anhui province, China since 1950 and the second with the examination of some determ inants of f e r t i l i t y d ec lin e . It makes use of data from the 1/1000 Survey of China which was conducted by the Family Planning Commission in 1982. The data used in th is th e sis are for one area in Anhui province, China, namely Huaibei Plain. In the first part, fertility transition in Huaibei Plain is examined. It is found that the greatest decline in marital fertility occurred among women aged 35+ under the influence of the family planning program. In the second part, some determinants of fertility decline are examined. Fertility decline among younger women (under age 30) is largely due to later age at marriage. Consequently, the nuptiality pattern of Huaibei Plain has changed from an early and universal marriage to a later and universal marriage pattern. Examination of current use of contraception suggests that the family planning program, in particular, the one-child policy(1979), has been the major determinant in fertility decline. Fertility decline among older women (35+) is primarily due to contraceptive practice. The influence of the one-child policy is so strong that it has almost eliminated the differentials in contraceptive use by education and occupation under certain circumstances; for example, for women who are under age 45 and have more than two children. i Table of Contents DECLARATION ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii ABSTRACT 1. Introduction andBackground 1 1.1 An overview of fertility trends in China and Anhui 3 province 1.2 The study area 9 1.3 Review of fertility research in China 10 1.3.1 Nuptiality 11 1.3.2 Fertility 12 1.3.3 Contraceptive use 12 1.4 Organization of the thesis 14 2. The One in 1000 Fertility Survey 16 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Objectives of the survey 17 2.3 Outline of the survey design 17 2.3.1 Survey design 17 2.3.2 Sample Frame 19 2.4 Pre-test 20 2.5 Organization and execution of the survey 20 2.5.1 Training of the field staff 21 2.5.2 Main fieldwork 21 2.6 Data processing 22 3. Fertility 24 3.1 Introduction 24 3.2 Number of Children Ever Born 25 3.3 Early and Recent Marital Fertility 32 3.3.1 Early marital fertility 32 3.3.2 Recent marital fertility 36 3.4 Analysis of Cohort-period Fertility Rates 37 3.5 Analysis of Cohort-age Fertility Rates 45 4. Some Determinants of Fertility Decline 49 4.1 Age at First Marriage and Age at First Birth 50 4.1.1 Pattern and trend of age at first marriage 51 4.1.2 Age at first marriage and age at first birth 56 4.2 Education 60 4.3 Current use of Contraception 68 4.3.1 Introduction 68 4.3.2 Current use of contraception 71 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 77 ii List of Figures Figure 1-1 : THE DEMOGRAPHIC RATES OF CHINA, 1949-1982 4 Figure 1-2: THE MAP OF ANHUI PROVINCE 5 Figure 1-3: AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES 13 Figure 3-1: LEXIS DIAGRAM SHOWING FIVE-YEARS COHORTS 39 FOR SUCCESSIVE FIVE-YEARS PERIODS AND RETROSPECTIVE AGES BEFORE THE SURVEY Figure 3-2: COHORT-PERIOD FERTILITY RATES 42 Figure 3-3: COHORT-PERIOD FERTILITY RATES OF SELECTED AGE 44 COHORTS Figure 3-4: COHORT-AGE FERTILITY RATES FOR WOMEN AGED 15-54 47 Figure 4-1: PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN MARRIED BEFORE SPECIFIC AGES 53 BY AGE GROUP Figure 4-2: MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE AND FIRST BIRTH BY AGE 58 GROUP Figure 4-3: AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE PER 1000 WOMEN 65 AVERAGED FROM THE LAST FIVE YEARS, 1978-1982 BY EDUCATION iii List of Tables Table 1-1: SOME SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDEXES OF ANHUI PROVINCE 7 COMPARED WITH CHINA AS A WHOLE Table 1-2: DEMOGRAPHIC RATES OF ANHUI PROVINCE 8 SINCE 1949 (per 1000) Table 3-1: PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF HUAIBEI PLAINS WOMEN BY 26 PARITY AND MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN BY CURRENT AGE Table 3-2: EVER MARRIED WOMEN (AGED 45-49) IN HUAIBEI PLAIN, 28 THAILAND AND KOREA (A) PER CENT DISTRIBUTION BY NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN, AND (B) PARITY PROGRESSION RATIOS (PPR) Table 3-3: HAUIBEI PLAIN EVER MARRIED WOMEN: MEAN NUMBER 30 OF CHILDREN EVER BORN BY AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AND (A) CURRENT AGE, (B) YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE Table 3-4: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF WOMEN WHO FIRST MARRIED 33 AT LEAST FIVE YEARS ACCORDING TO INTERVAL BETWEEN FIRST MARRIAGE AND FIRST BIRTH, BY (A) AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE, AND (B) YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE Table 3-5: MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN WITHIN THE FIRST 35 FIVE YEARS OF MARRIAGE, BY AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AND YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE Table 3-6: MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN IN THE PRECEEDING 36 FIVE YEARS TO WOMEN CONTINUOUSLY MARRIED AND UNDER AGE 50, BY (A) CURRENT AGE, AND (B) YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE Table 3-7: AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES OF HUAIBEI PLAIN 37 (1978-1982) AND CHINA (1980-1981) Table 3-8: COHORT-PERIOD FERTILITY RATES 40 Table 3-9: COHORT-AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES PER 1000 45 WOMEN Table 4-1: DISTRIBUTION OF SINGLE AND MARRIED WOMEN 52 BY CURRENT AGE AND AGE AT MARRIAGE Table 4-2: AGES BY WHICH 25,50 AND 75 PERCENT OF WOMEN 54 ENTERED MARRIAGE BY CURRENT AGE FOR HUAIBEI PLAIN,THAILAND (1976) AND KOREA (1974) Table 4-3: MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE (EVER MARRIED WOMEN) AND 56 FIRST BIRTH BY CURRENT AGE AND YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE Table 4-4: MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN TO EVER-MARRIED 61 WOMEN, BY (A) CURRENT AGE, AND (B) BY YEARS SINCE FIRST MARRIAGE, BY EDUCATION Table 4-5: MEAN NUMBER OF CHILDREN EVER BORN WITHIN IN FIRST 63 FIVE iv YEARS OF MARRIAGE FOR WOMEN MARRIED FOR AT LEAST 5 YEARS BY AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE, AND BY EDUCATION Table 4-6: AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE PER 1000 WOMEN 64 AVERAGED FROM THE LAST FIVE YEARS, 1 9 7 8 -1 9 8 2 BY EDUCATION T a b le 4 - 7 : PERCENTAGE OF EXPOSED WOMEN WHO ARE CURRENTLY 72 USING CONTRACEPTION (ANY METHOD), BY CURRENT AGE AND NUMBER OF LIVING CHILDREN T a b le 4 - 8 : PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF CURRENT USERS 73 ACCORDING TO SPECIFIC METHOD BEING USED, BY CURRENT AGE AND NUMBER OF LIVING CHILDREN T a b le 4 - 9 : PERCENTAGE OF EXPOSED WOMEN 76 CURRENTLY USING CONTRACEPTION (ANY METHOD), BY NUMBER OF LIVING CHILDREN AND EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION REFERENCES 80 APPENDIX 84 1 Chapter 1 Introduction and Background Population studies and demographic research were basically empty academic discipline in China for about 20 years since Professor Ma Yingchu (the former president of Beijing University) was criticised for Neo-Malthusianism in 1957. In the 1950s Mao Zedong, the former chairman, even pointed out that a large and growing population was in no way disadvantageous in the context of the Chinese revolutionary regime. Apart from this, the concealment of the 1964 census and population data made it extremely difficult for scholars both inside and outside China to study the Chinese population situation. Very little was known about the demography of China in the past. Numerous attempts have been made to evaluate China's demographic situation, but few have provided satisfactory answers. Many writers have estimated the size of the total population and a few have estimated the levels of fertility and mortality. Some constructed theoretical models of population growth by age and sex to study population changes. Demographers have tried to evaluate the demographic transition and the implementation of population policy in China from limited data and collections of statistics from magazines and newspapers. Recently the situation regarding demographic research has been 2 dramatically changed. With the unprecedented rapid population growth and its great pressure on socio-economic development, demography is evidently becoming recognized as a very important academic discipline. Meanwhile, in the past 5 years demographic data have become widely available. In particular, in 1982 the State Census Bureau conducted the Third National Population Census and, shortly after, the State Family Planning Commission conducted the One in 1000 Fertility Survey (the 1/1000 survey), both with the assistance of UNFPA.