The London School of Economics and Political Science Russian hegemony in the CIS region: an examination of Russian influence and of variation in consent and dissent by CIS states to regional hierarchy Carmen Amelia Gayoso Descalzi A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, October 2011 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 89,011 words. 2 Abstract This thesis studies variation in Russian hegemony in the post-Soviet region. The concept of changing hegemony is used as a starting point to examine how regional hierarchy has changed in the post-Soviet period. Russian hegemony tightens and loosens depending on the time, territory and type of power logic being exercised. This systemic condition characterised by change arises not only because the way that Russia exercises its power changes, but also because the responses of the other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to that power fluctuate. Depending on the consent and dissent shown by the other CIS countries to the attenuation of their sovereignty, Russia’s regional hegemony either grows or lessens in intensity. This study uncovers dissent from those who do not fit within or are unprepared to adapt to the status quo of hegemony, and consent from those who accept diminishing sovereignty. Thus, hegemonies in the context of this study are characterised by regular and open-ended dialogue between states that remain independent enough to constantly negotiate the system through their consent and dissent to hierarchy. In making these claims, this study examines concepts such as sovereignty, hierarchy and legitimacy in the context of the CIS region as well as key developments in the CIS region. Specifically, it makes conclusions on how regional hierarchy around Russia is perpetuated, the factors that determine the extent of that hegemony, how bilateral and group relationships have developed between other CIS countries and Russia, and how the CIS system of states is best classified at different periods in time. 3 Table of contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 7 The post-Soviet region in flux........................................................................................ 7 How to analyse Russia after ‘catastrophe’: core hypotheses/points of departure ..... 11 Explanatory framework: causal operational logic that considers hegemonic systemic fluctuation around consent and dissent ................................................................... 24 Chapter outline and arguments ............................................................................... 26 Chapter 2: Theoretical underpinnings ......................................................................... 29 The anarchy-hierarchy spectrum and the process of legitimacy .................................. 29 Systems of anarchy and hierarchy .......................................................................... 30 Moving beyond Watson: negotiating legitimacy through consent and dissent to the attenuation of sovereignty ....................................................................................... 38 Structuring the study: Michael Mann’s organisational framework for studying Russian regional hegemony .................................................................................................. 47 Chapter 3: ................................................................................................................... 52 Hegemony in the post-Soviet region as examined through Russian military intervention in regional conflicts and the consent-dissent dialectic ................................................. 52 Potential for consent and dissent to Russian-led hierarchy ..................................... 54 Russian military involvements ................................................................................. 55 Chapter conclusions ................................................................................................ 77 Chapter 4: ................................................................................................................... 86 Hegemony in the post-Soviet region as examined through Russian economic power and the consent-dissent dialectic ................................................................................ 86 Potential for consent and dissent to Russian-led hierarchy ..................................... 89 Yeltsin’s military conflicts: not an economic imperative ............................................ 90 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) trends and current account balances .................... 93 External debt owed to Russia: dependence on Russian lending ............................. 98 Energy subsidies in the post-Soviet region: Yeltsin’s energy concerns .................. 101 The use of energy as leverage under Putin towards energy importing countries ... 110 Chapter conclusions .............................................................................................. 118 Chapter 5: ................................................................................................................. 124 Hegemony in the post-Soviet region as examined through Russian-led multilateral political organisations and the consent-dissent dialectic ........................................... 124 Potential for consent and dissent to Russian-led hierarchy ................................... 126 Regional cooperation frameworks ......................................................................... 127 Chapter conclusions .............................................................................................. 153 Chapter 6: ................................................................................................................. 162 Hegemony in the post-Soviet region as examined through Russian ideological power and the consent-dissent dialectic .............................................................................. 162 Potential for consent and dissent to Russian-led hierarchy ................................... 164 Appointing status quo, pro-Russian actors ............................................................ 164 Moscow’s strategic use of dual citizenship and ‘passportisation’ ........................... 171 The promotion of the Russian culture and language ............................................. 176 Chapter conclusions .............................................................................................. 184 Chapter 7: Conclusions............................................................................................. 192 Types of hegemony and Russian behaviour at different points on the spectrum ... 192 Overall country trends ........................................................................................... 194 Fluctuating power logics in the CIS region ............................................................. 201 Variation in types of hegemony across time .......................................................... 203 The pendulum in the CIS region ............................................................................ 207 The research agenda ............................................................................................ 209 Bibliography .............................................................................................................. 213 4 Tables and figures Figure 1.1: Operational logic that considers hegemonic systemic fluctuation around consent and dissent .................................................................................................... 25 Figure 2.1: Adam Watson’s independent state – empire spectrum ............................. 34 Figure 2.2: Key analytical devices differentiating hierarchies ...................................... 34 Figure 2.3: A simplified pendulum, showing hegemony as gravitational centre ........... 42 Figure 4.1: GDP trends in the Russian federation 1991 – 2008 .................................. 94 Table 4.1 GDP and per capita income in CIS countries, beginning of 2006 ................ 97 Table 4.2: External debt (US millions) ......................................................................... 99 Table 4.3 Impact of increasing energy prices to world levels on terms of trade (CIS Countries and the Baltic States, 1993) ...................................................................... 102 Table 5.1: Regional economic integration projects before 2000 with Russia as member state.......................................................................................................................... 142 Figure 7.1: A spectrum of hegemony