Winter 2020 COMPLEX UNIFIABLE SYSTEMS The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Thinking Reflexively by Richard N. Foster Embracing Behavioral Science by Leidy Klotz and John Pickering Managing Failure Risks by Elisabeth Paté-Cornell Complexity Blind Spots by Susan M. Fitzpatrick Building a Meta-University by Darryl L. Farber, Douglas Melton, and Monty Alger Modeling and Envisioning Complex Systems by Katy Börner Cyberphysical Integration by Chandrakant D. Patel Complex Environments by Brian S. Collins Cultural Evolution and the Paradox of Diversity by Michael Muthukrishna The Complexity of Increasing Returns by César A. Hidalgo Addressing Social Displacement by Christopher G. Glazner Complexities of Civic Life by Peter Levine Disproportionalities, Disparities, and Discrimination by Cora Bagley Marrett Policing as a Complex System by Brendan A. O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi Vaccines as Instruments for National Security by Richard J. Danzig A New Model for National Emergency Medical Care by Denis A. Cortese and Curtiss B. Cook Reducing Systemic Vulnerabilities in US Health Care by Hamilton Moses III and George Poste Public Health: Designing for Effectiveness by Karen B. DeSalvo A Global Pandemic as a Complex, Unifiable System by Harvey V. Fineberg Evolving an Ecological Perspective by Simon A. Levin Complex Maladaptive Systems by David Sloan Wilson and Guru Madhavan The Simplicity and Complexity of Cities by Christopher P. Kempes and Geoffrey B. West Unity of Engineering Disciplines by Zachary Pirtle Complexities of Higher Education by John V. Lombardi, Michael M.E. Johns, William B. Rouse, and Diane D. Craig Leadership for a Complex Enterprise by Jeffrey Wilcox and Dinesh Verma True Complexity and False Simplicity by Jason Crabtree Epilogue: Toward an Engineering 3.0 by Norman R. Augustine The mission of the National Academy of Engineering is to advance the well-being of the nation by promoting a vibrant engineering profession and by marshalling the expertise and insights of eminent engineers to provide independent advice to the federal government on matters involving engineering and technology. The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Donald C. Winter, Chair John L. Anderson, President Corale L. Brierley, Vice President Carol K. Hall, Home Secretary James M. Tien, International Secretary Martin B. Sherwin, Treasurer Editor in Chief: Ronald M. Latanision Managing Editor: Cameron H. Fletcher Production Associate: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (ISSN 0737-6278) is published quarterly by the National Acad emy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 50, No. 4, Winter 2020 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Changes of address or requests to unsubscribe should be sent to [email protected]. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and timeliness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. C © 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Mission Statement of The Bridge The Bridge publishes articles on engineering research, education, and practice; science and technology policy; and the interface between engineering and technology and society. The intent is to stimulate debate and dialogue both among members of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and in the broader community of policymakers, educators, business leaders, and other interested individuals. The Bridge relies on its editor in chief, NAE members, and staff to identify potential issue topics and guest editors. Invited guest editors, who have expertise in a given issue’s theme, are asked to select authors and topics, and inde- pendent experts are enlisted to assess articles for publication. The quarterly has a distribution of about 7000, including NAE members, members of Congress, libraries, universities, and interested individuals all over the country and the world. Issues are freely accessible at www.nae.edu/TheBridge. A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 50, Number 4 • Winter 2020 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editors’ Note 3 Systemic Vistas Guru Madhavan, George Poste, and William B. Rouse Features 6 Thinking Reflexively Richard N. Foster 9 Embracing Behavioral Science Leidy Klotz and John Pickering 11 Managing Failure Risks Elisabeth Paté-Cornell 13 Complexity Blind Spots Susan M. Fitzpatrick 16 Building a Meta-University Darryl L. Farber, Douglas Melton, and Monty Alger 19 Modeling and Envisioning Complex Systems Katy Börner 21 Cyberphysical Integration Chandrakant D. Patel 24 Complex Environments Brian S. Collins 26 Cultural Evolution and the Paradox of Diversity Michael Muthukrishna 29 The Complexity of Increasing Returns César A. Hidalgo 31 Addressing Social Displacement Christopher G. Glazner 34 Complexities of Civic Life Peter Levine 37 Disproportionalities, Disparities, and Discrimination Cora Bagley Marrett 41 Policing as a Complex System Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi 44 Vaccines as Instruments for National Security Richard J. Danzig 47 A New Model for National Emergency Medical Care Denis A. Cortese and Curtiss B. Cook 50 Reducing Systemic Vulnerabilities in US Health Care Hamilton Moses III and George Poste (continued on next page) News and Notes 53 Public Health: Designing for Effectiveness Karen B. DeSalvo 89 NAE Newsmakers 91 2020 Annual Meeting Highlights 55 A Global Pandemic as a Complex, Unifiable System 92 Remarks by NAE Chair Donald C. Winter Harvey V. Fineberg 94 President’s Address by John L. Anderson 97 A Call to Action for Racial Justice and Equity 58 Evolving an Ecological Perspective in Engineering: 2020 NAE Annual Meeting Simon A. Levin Special Lecture by John B. Slaughter 61 Complex Maladaptive Systems 102 2020 Simon Ramo Founders Award David Sloan Wilson and Guru Madhavan Acceptance Remarks by Frances S. Ligler 64 The Simplicity and Complexity of Cities 104 2020 Arthur M. Bueche Award Christopher P. Kempes and Geoffrey B. West Acceptance Remarks by Arden L. Bement Jr. 105 2020 J.C. Hunsaker Award in Aeronautical 67 Unity of Engineering Disciplines Engineering Acceptance Remarks by Zachary Pirtle Alan C. Brown 70 Complexities of Higher Education 106 National Science, Technology, and Security John V. Lombardi, Michael M.E. Johns, Roundtable Established William B. Rouse, and Diane D. Craig 106 The NAE Transfers GCSP Network Office 73 Leadership for a Complex Enterprise Operations to Consortium of Higher-Ed Jeffrey Wilcox and Dinesh Verma Institutions 107 Calendar of Meetings and Events 76 True Complexity and False Simplicity 107 In Memoriam Jason Crabtree 79 Epilogue: Toward an Engineering 3.0 Norman R. Augustine 83 An Interview with… Jill Tietjen, Electrical Engineer, Women’s Advocate, Author The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an emy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongov- Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to ernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objec- The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 tive analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected Academies also encourage education and research, recognize out- by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John standing contributions to knowledge, and increase public understand- L. Anderson is president. ing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Acad- and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. Editors’ Note Systemic Vistas Guru Madhavan is the Norman R. Augustine Senior Scholar and senior director of programs at the National Academy of Engineering. George Poste is Regents Professor and Del E. Webb Professor of Health Innovation and chief scientist with the Complex Adaptive Systems Initiative at Arizona State University. William Rouse (NAE) is research professor and senior fellow at McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown Guru Madhavan George Poste William Rouse University. We live in fragmented worlds. Unbridged, tattered Extreme heat has started to melt roads in states expe- seams abound. riencing record high temperatures. Applying an addi- The collision of four calamities—viral, racial, eco- tional rubberized layer to roads helps, but the higher nomic, and environmental—infected by human habits, road levels result in trucks not being able to go under hubris, and behavior as well as big tech, big media, and many bridges. political acrimony