UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE ORGANIZED INTERESTS IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By PAUL D. JORGENSEN Norman, Oklahoma 2011 ORGANIZED INTERESTS IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ______________________________________ Dr. Glen S. Krutz, Chair ______________________________________ Dr. Ann-Marie Szymanski ______________________________________ Dr. Donald E. Maletz ______________________________________ Dr. Michael Givel ______________________________________ Dr. Zev Trachtenberg © Copyright by PAUL D. JORGENSEN 2011 All Rights Reserved. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES xvi ABSTRACT xvii CHAPTER ONE: POLITICAL REPRESENTATION, GROUP THEORY AND CAMPAIGN FINANCE 1 Introduction 1 The Role of Organized Interests in Elections: A Brief History 6 PAC Strategy and Representation: Geographic versus Financial Constituencies 10 Group Theory: Demand- versus Supply-Side Approaches 13 Campaign Finance: Does (PAC) Money Matter? 21 Conclusion 34 CHAPTER TWO: THE PAC SYSTEM 37 Introduction 37 Identifying the PAC System 42 Measuring PAC Donations 48 Geography and the PAC System 58 Policy Domains and the PAC System 61 Measuring the Political Environment 85 Geographic Environment 86 Legislative/Institutional Environment 89 Electoral Environment 106 Constituency Environment 120 Conclusion: The PAC System, 1990-2006 125 CHAPTER THREE: THE DEMAND-SIDE APPROACH 128 Introduction 128 Demand-Side and PAC Strategy: The Organizational Presence Model 131 Testing the Organizational Presence Model: Data, Variables, and Hypotheses 139 Findings 143 Conclusion 178 CHAPTER FOUR: THE SUPPLY-SIDE APPROACH 180 Introduction 181 Public Choice and Organized Interests: The Old Idea of Politics without Romance 184 Public Choice, Pluralism, and Policymaking: The Supply of Public Policy Model 201 iv Public Choice, Pluralism, and PAC Strategy: The Legislative Asset Model 207 Findings 219 Building a New Model of PAC Strategy 252 CHAPTER FIVE: A NEW APPROACH TO PAC STRATEGY MODELING 254 Introduction 254 Intellectual Roots of the Mediated Model 255 Mediated Model: Data, Variables, and Hypotheses 260 Findings 262 Conclusion 279 CHAPTER SIX: UNDERSTANDING POLITICS USING ORGANIZED INTERESTS 280 BIBLIOGRAPHY 287 APPENDIX A: CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION LIMITS AND THOSE PACS OVER THE LIMITS 296 APPENDIX B: HOUSE STANDING COMMITTEE NAMES BY CONGRESSIONAL SESSIONS 300 APPENDIX C: INCUMBENTS NOT RETURNING FOR NEXT CONGRESSIONAL SESSION BY ELECTORAL CYCLE AND POLITICAL PARTY 301 APPENDIX D: CENSUS INDUSTRY CATEGORIES FOR 1980, 1990, AND 2000 315 v LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Electoral Cycle Dates 44 2.2 Descriptive Statistics of Case Selection 47 2.3 1990 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 51 2.4 1992 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 51 2.5 1994 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 52 2.6 1996 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 52 2.7 1998 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 53 2.8 2000 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 53 2.9 2002 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 54 2.10 2004 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 54 2.11 2006 Electoral Cycle: Transaction Type Frequency and 1989 Real Dollar Totals 55 2.12 PAC Donations to All Politicians versus Official Candidates in House of Representatives by Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 57 2.13 Individual Donations to PACs and to Candidates/Political Parties by Electoral Cycle 59 2.14 Individual Donations to PACs, Frequency and Amount, by State for 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles 60 2.15 Number of Unique, Active PACs by Policy Sector and Electoral Cycle 63 2.16 1990-1994 Agribusiness PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 64 2.17 1996-2000 Agribusiness PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 64 2.18 2002-2006 Agribusiness PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 65 2.19 1990-1994 Communications/Electronics PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 65 2.20 1996-2000 Communications/Electronics PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 66 2.21 2002-2006 Communications/Electronics PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 66 2.22 1990-1994 Construction PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 67 2.23 1996-2000 Construction PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 67 2.24 2002-2006 Construction PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 68 vi 2.25 1990-1994 Defense PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 68 2.26 1996-2000 Defense PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 69 2.27 2002-2006 Defense PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 69 2.28 1990-1994 Energy/Natural Resources PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 70 2.29 1996-2000 Energy/Natural Resources PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 70 2.30 2002-2006 Energy/Natural Resources PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 71 2.31 1990-1994 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 71 2.32 1996-2000 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 72 2.33 2002-2006 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 72 2.34 1990-1994 Health PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 73 2.35 1996-2000 Health PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 73 2.36 2002-2006 Health PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 74 2.37 1990-1994 Ideological/Single Issue PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 74 2.38 1996-2000 Ideological/Single Issue PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 75 2.39 2002-2006 Ideological/Single Issue PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 75 2.40 1990-1994 Labor PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 76 2.41 1996-2000 Labor PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 76 2.42 2002-2006 Labor PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 77 2.43 1990-1994 Lawyer/Lobbyists PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 77 2.44 1996-2000 Lawyer/Lobbyists PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 78 2.45 2002-2006 Lawyer/Lobbyists PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 78 2.46 1990-1994 Miscellaneous Business PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 79 2.47 1996-2000 Miscellaneous Business PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 79 vii 2.48 2002-2006 Miscellaneous Business PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 80 2.49 1990-1994 Transportation PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 80 2.50 1996-2000 Transportation PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 81 2.51 2002-2006 Transportation PAC Donation Amount by Transaction Type in 1989 Real Dollars 81 2.52 Average PAC Donations to States, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles 86 2.53 Standing Full Committee Names in the 109th House of Representatives 92 2.54 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts with Incumbent Committee Members and Chairpersons, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 94 2.55 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts by Leadership Positions, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 97 2.56 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts by Chamber Seniority, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 99 2.57 Number of Official Candidates for the House of Representatives by Political Party and Electoral Cycle 101 2.58 Number of Official Candidates Receiving PAC Donations for the House of Representatives by Political Party and Electoral Cycle 101 2.59 PAC Donations to Official Democratic and Republican Candidates by Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 103 2.60 PAC Donations to Official Independent, Green, and Other Party Candidates by Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 103 2.61 PAC Donations to Official Libertarian, Natural Law, Socialist, and Reform Party Candidates by Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 104 2.62 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts by Ideology, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 105 2.63 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts by District Partisanship, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 108 2.64 PAC Donations to Congressional Districts by Electoral Margin of Victory, 1990-2006 Electoral Cycles in 1989 Real Dollars 109 2.65 PAC Donations to General Election Winners by Political Party and Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 111 2.66 PAC Donations to General Election Losers by Political Party and Electoral Cycle in 1989 Real Dollars 111 2.67 Number of Official Incumbents, Challengers, and Quality Challengers for the House of Representatives by Electoral Cycle 113 2.68 Number of Official Incumbents, Challengers, and Quality Challengers Receiving PAC Donations for the House of Representatives by Electoral Cycle 114 2.69 PAC Donations to Official Incumbents, Challengers and Quality Challengers by Electoral Cycle in 1989