Overview of Demographic Evolution in Romania Valentina VASILE ([email protected]) Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy, Romania Ana Maria DOBRE ([email protected]) National Institute of Statistics & Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to analyze the demographic evolution of Romanian population in the last two decades, based on census data and to defi ne main chal- lenges on labour market potential and professional profi le. We are referring to aspects of the general demographic characteristics, ethnic composition and age dependency ratios of Romanian resident population. The empirical research was completed by data visualization of demographic data, using R software. Based on this analysis, we are advancing some signals on the effects pro- duced by the demographic structure dynamics in the last decades on specifi c groups of population, like school population and working-age population. Keywords: Demography, Ethnic structure, Age dependency ratio, R Project INTRODUCTION In the last decades, the population in Romania faced signifi cant chang- es: low level of birth rate, an increased dynamics of external labour mobility. The family model was alliterated, associated with delaying in marriage and fi rst childbirth. Important changes in attendance to education were registered, from increasing early school leave for some population groups to prolonged period in education through increasing participation in higher education. All this aspects infl uenced the number and profi le of the new entrance on the labour market. Based on the challenges of the Romanian economy for future competiveness and according to new skills demand on labour market in the knowledge based society we are supported through new job creation, is obvi- ous that the human potential (as number and its characteristics) is of the par- ticular importance. We also took into account the cultural model of different ethnic groups of population and the working profi le – as level of education, traditional or most common professions, employment pattern and lifestyle. This paper is based on last three censuses data in Romania (1992, 2002 and 2011). Special insights of demographic changes are given, including changes on ethnic structure and distribution of age groups. Romanian Statistical Review nr. 4 / 2015 27 Starting from 1992, Romania’s population decreased signifi cantly due to the negative natural growth and the intensive phenomenon of international migration. The population of Romania decreased in twenty years (between Population and Housing Census 1992 and 2011) with 2.7 million inhabitants (11.8%). Between 2002 and 2011, the decrease was of 7.2%. Comparing with 2002, the population distribution by age groups shows a certain accelerating ageing process, whereas the age groups 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 years old re- duced their share in the usual resident population. In the sometime, the share of the old-age groups of 75 and over in the usual resident population increased from 4.9% in Census 2002 to 7.2% in Census 2011. Population pyramid in Romania Figure 1 1992 2002 2011 Source: NIS, Population and Housing Censuses in 1992, 2002 and 2011, own calculations The population is characterized by a higher representation of the fe- male population, both overall and in a higher proportion for age groups over 45 years. Because there are born more boys than girls, until the age of 45 years, the number of men is higher than women. Although the general trend is maintained throughout the period, some differences in certain age groups are revealed. Age group 15-19 years old is the only below 45 years registering a decreased sex ratio, from 105.9 in 1992 to 105.1 in 2011. A signifi cant increase in the sex ratio occurred in the age group 20-24 years, from 101.8 in 1992 to 106.4 in 2011. In Romania, in 1992, the average sex ratio was 96.7. In 2002, there were 95.1 males per 100 females and 94.7 in 2011. So, in this respect we faced with a low, but steadily trend to decrease the male born than female, with im- portant implication on long run for labour market supply on professions and qualifi cation, skills profi le and employment duration (part time and fi x term contracts). In 2011, the sex ratio for ages 75 and older is half (59.5) of the one for ages 25 to 29 (104.8). Therefore, we are losing more male population both by migration and due to the natural causes (accidents, diseases etc.). 28 Romanian Statistical Review nr. 4 / 2015 Sex ratio in Romania, 1992 and 2011 Figure 2 Source: NIS, Population and Housing Censuses in 1992 and 2011, own calculations ANALYSIS OF ETHNICAL STRUCTURE OF USUAL RESIDENT POPULATION IN ROMANIA Ethnicity of Romania’s population faces a dynamic change between the last three censuses and it is still going on. The main responsible factors are considered the followings: a) birth rate and average number of children per family; b) health status and life expectancy; c) emigration. For example, if for German ethics the main reason of decreasing population was emigration, for Romanians, the population dynamics was mainly infl uenced by decreasing number of birth children and increasing average age of the mother at birth of fi rst child. For Roma people, despite the lower expectancy life, average poorer health status, and precarious living conditions, due to the cultural model, the birth rate remains the highest among Romanian’s citizens. As result, as special cases, we remark the increase of share of Roma population over 200,000 in twenty years, and the decrease of German ethnic with over two-thirds in the same period. Romanian Statistical Review nr. 4 / 2015 29 Romania’s usual resident population structure by ethnicity, on last three censuses Table 1 1992 2002 2011 Dynamics Structural Usual 2011/1992 change resident population Percentage persons % persons % persons % +/-, as % points Total 22810035 21680974 20121641 -11.79 x Of which, by ethnicity: Romanian 20408542 89.47 19399597 89.48 16792868 83.46 -17.72 -6.02 Hungarian 1624959 7.12 1431807 6.60 1227623 6.10 -24.45 -1.02 Roma 401087 1.76 535140 2.47 621573 3.09 54.97 1.33 German 65764 0.29 59764 0.28 36042 0.18 -45.19 -0.11 Ukrainian 119462 0.52 61098 0.28 50920 0.25 -57.38 -0.27 Russian 38606 0.17 35791 0.17 23487 0.12 -39.16 -0.05 Turkish 29832 0.13 32098 0.15 27698 0.14 -7.15 0.01 Serb 24596 0.11 22561 0.10 18076 0.09 -26.51 -0.02 Tatars 29408 0.13 23935 0.11 20282 0.10 -31.03 -0.03 Slovak 19594 0.09 17226 0.08 13654 0.07 -30.32 -0.02 Bulgarian 9851 0.04 8025 0.04 7336 0.04 -25.53 -0.01 Jewish 8955 0.04 5785 0.03 3271 0.02 -63.47 -0.02 Croat 4085 0.02 6807 0.03 5408 0.03 32.39 0.01 Czech 5797 0.03 3941 0.02 2477 0.01 -57.27 -0.01 Polish 4232 0.02 3559 0.02 2543 0.01 -39.91 -0.01 Greek 3940 0.02 6472 0.03 3668 0.02 -6.90 0.00 Armenian 1957 0.01 1780 0.01 1361 0.01 -30.45 0.00 Italian - - 3288 0.02 3203 0.02 Chinese - - 2243 0.01 2017 0.01 Csango - - 1266 0.01 1536 0.01 Source: NIS, Population and Housing Censuses in 1992, 2002 and 2011, own calculations It fi nds and ethnic diversity through the last three categories of popu- lation censuses recorded in 2002 and 2011 whose number remains relatively constant for the Italians and Chinese and increases the Csango. Mean age indicator was computed, in order to ensure a gathering of the data on ethnic groups by population ageing criterion. Mean age of the population in Romania has increased from 34.9 years in 1992 to 37.6 years in 2002 and in 2011; it exceeded the 40 threshold, registering a value of 40.3 years. This value is specifi c to the adult population countries. The ethnic groups have evolved differently, following four trends. Age of 40 years was considered as a threshold of aging, age 39 years was the last rated as “young”. Therefore, considering mean age indicator, the ethnicity is divided into fi ve categories: a) Young ethnic groups with rapid ageing; b) Young ethnic groups with slow ageing; c) Old ethnic groups with rapid ageing; d) Old ethnic groups with slow ageing; e) Ethnic groups with a rejuvenation trend. 30 Romanian Statistical Review nr. 4 / 2015 If in 1992, the mean age was for the most of the ethnic groups below 40, in 2011 signifi cant changes were registered for Turkish, Czech, Germans and Polish population, the main determinants for such higher aging trend be- ing emigration mostly of the young and average age individuals and/or cou- ples. In the case of Greeks, Armenians and Jewish, the average oldest ethnic groups in Romania in 1992, the aging trend was much slower or even was registered a decreasing of the mean age (i.e. Jewish population) due to the lost in number by natural causes. In 2011, the lowest mean-age was registered for Roma, Russians and Ukrainian, ethnic population groups relatively younger compared to Romanians. Mean-age of ethnic groups in Romania Figure 3 Source: NIS, Population and Housing Censuses in 1992, 2002 and 2011, own calculations Is important to mention that some ethnic groups were registered at Census 2002 and 2011, but unregistered in Census 1992, e.g.