POPULATION STATEMENT December 2020 Overview Strong evidence. Deep insights. Collaborative approach. POPULATION STATEMENT December 2020 Overview © Commonwealth of Australia 2020 ISBN 978-1-925832-21-1 This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, the Treasury logo, photographs, images, signatures and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. Use of Treasury material under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 3.0 Australia licence requires you to attribute the work (but not in any way that suggests that the Treasury endorses you or your use of the work). Treasury material used ‘as supplied’ Provided you have not modified or transformed Treasury material in any way including, for example, by changing the Treasury text; calculating percentage changes; graphing or charting data; or deriving new statistics from published Treasury statistics – then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Source: Centre for Population 2020, Population Statement Overview, the Australian Government, Canberra Derivative material If you have modified or transformed Treasury material, or derived new material from those of the Treasury in any way, then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Based on Centre for Population analysis / data Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are set out on the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet website (see www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth- coat-arms). Other uses Enquiries regarding this licence and any other use of this document are welcome at: Manager Media and Speeches The Treasury Langton Crescent, Parkes ACT 2600 Email: [email protected] Contents Foreword 2 Key findings 4 Australia’s first Population Statement 6 Australia’s past population 7 Australia’s future population 8 Impacts of COVID-19 on population 10 Impacts of COVID-19 on migration and natural increase 12 States and territories 14 Cities and regions 16 Working with states, territories and local government 18 Long-term population pressures 20 POPULATION STATEMENT 2020 | OVERVIEW 1 Foreword The Hon. Alan Tudge MP Minister for Population, Cities and Urban Infrastructure Acting Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs In 2019, the Australian Government created the The pandemic has also had an impact on internal Centre for Population to provide a single point of migration between states and will contribute to a analysis to assess, monitor and project changes to lower fertility rate. the population. The Government also committed to publishing an annual Population Statement This Population Statement provides the transparent containing the Centre’s analysis. and meaningful analysis needed to help build a clear evidence basis and further inform policy. This is the first such Statement providing a major At this time of heightened uncertainty, we analytical contribution and a foundation for need high quality data and research to support further analysis. decision-making as we navigate through the recovery and beyond. The Statement includes a discussion of how our population has changed and how it is expected to The Statement has been developed in consultation change in the future spanning states and territories, with the states and territories, local government, capital cities and regions, by age and gender. expert working groups and academics and delivers on the commitment made by government leaders In 2020, the Population Statement has a timely when they agreed on the National Population and focus on the consequences of the COVID-19 Planning Framework in February this year. pandemic. We all know the health and economic consequences of the pandemic, but the impact This Statement presents the analysis and on our population has been equally extraordinary. projections needed to inform long-term policy This year, for example, we expect to see the challenges raised by demographic change and the slowest population growth since World War I. This short-term challenges we face in our recovery from has largely been due to closing the international the pandemic. Some of these challenges are more borders and the resultant change in net overseas acute as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which migration from averaging over 200,000 per annum has rapidly changed our overseas migration levels for the last decade to negative 72,000 this year. and limited the ways people have been able to move domestically. 2 CENTRE FOR POPULATION As we better understand trends in our population, we can better answer future population challenges. It will inform decisions on infrastructure, services and housing that support growth, as well as help us better understand and analyse population distribution across the country. Australia has a diverse and growing national population, with many local and regional success stories. Understanding these stories and recognising the vastly different dynamics of Australia’s states and territories, cities and regions is vital for effective planning for the future. POPULATION STATEMENT 2020 | OVERVIEW 3 Key findings Insights from Australia’s first Population Statement The impact of COVID-19 is expected to be long Capital cities are projected to bear the heaviest lasting. Australia’s population is expected to be impacts, with total population across capital cities smaller and older than projected prior to the onset estimated to be around 5 per cent lower by 30 June of the pandemic. 2031 than in the absence of COVID-19. By contrast, population outside the capital cities is estimated Australia’s population is estimated to be around to be around 2 per cent smaller than it would 4 per cent smaller (1.1 million fewer people) by otherwise have been. 30 June 2031 than it would have been in the absence of COVID-19. The population will also be The number of people migrating interstate is older as a result of reduced net overseas migration projected to fall by 12 per cent in 2020–21. This and fewer births. Despite COVID-19, Australia’s would be the largest year-on-year drop in interstate population is still growing and is expected to reach migration in 40 years and would lead to the lowest 28 million during 2028–29, three years later than rate of interstate migration as a proportion of the estimated in the absence of COVID-19. population on record. COVID-19 is projected to slow population growth Melbourne is projected to overtake Sydney to across all geographic areas analysed, with the become Australia’s largest city in 2026–27, with a duration and magnitude linked to the importance population of 6.2 million by 2030–31, compared to of net overseas migration to different parts of 6.0 million in Sydney. the country. To access the full Population Statement, please visit www.population.gov.au. 4 CENTRE FOR POPULATION Populatio rowt expecte h slowes a e over entury Net rseas migratio xpecte t al harpl u COVID-19 0.2 per cent growth in 2020–21 Som amilie il efe their ecision o ave childre u COVID-19 72,000 net outflow in 2020–21 1.61 per woman babies in 2020–21 Melbourne s 1.1m projected rtake Australia’s opulation Sydne com i til rowin n Australia's argest ity Australia’s opulation expecte eac i rojecte 28 llion uring 1.1 illion ower y 2028–29 hre ear 203 ha oul late ha h hav e h absence f COVID-19. absence f COVID-19 POPULATION STATEMENT 2020 | OVERVIEW 5 Australia’s first Population Statement The first Population Statement is an important To estimate our future population, it is necessary part of national efforts to increase understanding to look back and understand historical population about populations, population change and its trends and then apply judgement about the implications for all levels of government. extent to which past trends should be applied to future projections. The Statement assesses how COVID-19 will likely have an impact on Australia’s Australia’s population has changed, looks at the future population of a magnitude that has not been drivers of that change over the past 30 years and seen for several generations. The Statement comes projects Australia’s future population over the next at a critical time, when quality, coherent population 10 years. It does this at the national, state, territory, projections built on transparent assumptions will capital city and rest-of-state levels. be highly valued. Regularly updated and transparent estimates of The uncertainty created by COVID-19 has the future population, along with comprehensive underscored the importance of applying expertise analysis of past trends, will complement historical and judgement in predicting its effects on the data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and population. Population projections underpin provide a better foundation for policy decisions that economic and fiscal forecasts, policy decisions and guide Australia’s economic recovery. programme design and implementation across all levels of government. 6 CENTRE FOR POPULATION Australia’s past population Australia’s population has been growing at an net internal migration. The contribution to growth average rate of 1.4 per cent a year since 1971. This from natural increase has been stable over time, but is relatively fast compared to other developed is declining across the country as the population countries. ages. Net overseas migration is a key driver of population Australia’s overall population has aged significantly growth and since 2005–06 has consistently over the past 50 years, with the share of people contributed more to growth than natural increase aged over 65 almost doubling between 1946 and (Figure 1). 2019. This has been driven by low fertility and increasing life expectancy, which means there Migration has also lifted natural increase, because is a greater proportion of older people in the migrants coming to Australia are younger on population each year.