TVE-MILI; 19026 Master’s Thesis 15 credits March 2019 The German Automobile Supply Industry Evaluating the Future Preparedness of a German Automotive Supplier company using the Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight Felix Lüer Master Programme in Industrial Management and Innovation Masterprogram i industriell ledning och innovation Abstract The German Automobile Supply Industry Felix Lüer Faculty of Science and Technology Growing markets and fast discontinuous changes challenge companies to stay Visiting address: Ångströmlaboratoriet in line with their goals and maintain their market share. The environmental Lägerhyddsvägen 1 dynamism, complexity and hostility are aspects that require strategical House 4, Level 0 preparation to maintain success on the market. Companies need not only to Postal address: Box 536 manage the continuous adaptation to incremental change but also the ability 751 21 Uppsala to detect discontinuities early and manage them through their corporate Telephone: strategy and innovation management. The process of detecting, interpreting +46 (0)18 – 471 30 03 and reacting to changes can be referred as corporate foresight. This study Telefax: analyses a German automotive supplier regarding their current foresight +46 (0)18 – 471 30 00 capabilities and will derive with an assessment within their competitive Web page: http://www.teknik.uu.se/student-en/ surrounding. This study assesses the corporate foresight capabilities of a company in a qualitative approach by conducting interviews with employees and further secondary quantitative insights from survey results. In collaboration with the consulting firm Rohrbeck & Heger and their gathered data sets, further insights about the competitive situation of the company could be derived. The final assessment presents insights whereas the automotive supplier is lacking in specific aspects in contrast to the diverse competition but also delivers actions steps to lower the weak spots the firm currently demonstrates. Supervisor: Petter Bertilsson Forsberg Subject reader: Petter Bertilsson Forsberg Examiner: Sofia Wagrell TVE-MILI; 19026 Printed by: Uppsala Universitet Abstract Growing markets and fast discontinuous changes challenge companies to stay in line with their goals and maintain their market share. The environmental dynamism, complexity and hostility are aspects that require strategical preparation to maintain success on the market. Companies need not only to manage the continuous adaptation to incremental change but also the ability to detect discontinuities early and manage them through their corporate strategy and innovation management. The process of detecting, interpreting and reacting to changes can be referred to as corporate foresight. This study analysis a German automotive supplier regarding their current foresight capabilities and will derive with an assessment within their competitive surrounding. This study assesses the corporate foresight capabilities of a company in a qualitative approach by conducting interviews with employees and further secondary quantitative insights from survey results. In collaboration with the consulting firm Rohrbeck & Heger and their gathered data sets, further insights about the competitive situation of the company could be derived. The final assessment presents insights whereas the automotive supplier is lacking in specific aspects in contrast to the diverse competition but also delivers actions steps to lower the weak spots the firm currently demonstrates. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background and Justification of Research ........................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions .............................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Thesis Contribution .............................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Structure of Thesis ............................................................................................................... 3 2. Literature Review................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction to Literature Review ........................................................................................ 3 2.2 Strategic Foresight ............................................................................................................... 3 2.3 German Automobile Industry .............................................................................................. 8 2.4. Rohrbeck’s Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight ........................................................ 10 2.4.1 Context ............................................................................................................................ 10 2.4.2 Capabilities ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.4.3 Impact ............................................................................................................................. 14 2.4.4 Maturity Levels ............................................................................................................... 16 2.4.5 Process Steps ................................................................................................................... 16 2.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 16 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 16 3.1 Introduction to Methodology ............................................................................................. 16 3.2 Overview of Methods ........................................................................................................ 17 3.3 Research Approach ............................................................................................................ 17 3.4 Sampling Method ............................................................................................................... 17 3.5 Instruments ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.6 Data Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.6.1 Database research............................................................................................................ 20 3.7 Research Ethics .................................................................................................................. 20 4. Case Study Results – Future Preparedness Level ................................................................ 22 4.1 Quantitative insights .......................................................................................................... 22 5. Analysis and Discussion ...................................................................................................... 26 5.1 The Need for Strategic Foresight ....................................................................................... 26 5.1.2 The Division CA Automotive ......................................................................................... 27 5.1.3 Facing Changing Trends in the Automotive Industry ..................................................... 27 5.2 Corporate Capabilities that lead to Corporate Foresight.................................................... 29 5.2.1 Decreasing Uncertainty with Information usage ............................................................ 29 5.2.2 Applying the right methods - Methodological Maturity ................................................. 30 5.2.3 Having the Right People and Partner - Networks and People ........................................ 32 5.2.4 Organization .................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.5 Creating the right cultural environment .......................................................................... 33 5.3 Corporate Foresight process maturity ................................................................................ 34 5.3.1 Perceiving ....................................................................................................................... 35 5.3.2 Prospecting ...................................................................................................................... 36 5.3.3 Probing ............................................................................................................................ 37 5.3 Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Findings ...................................................... 38 5.4 Implications........................................................................................................................ 38 5.5 Effectiveness of the Corporate Foresight Maturity Model ................................................ 40 5.6 Recommendations for Future Research ............................................................................. 41 7. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 41 8. References ...........................................................................................................................