FAILED DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN: 1990-2000 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY OURAN NIAZALIEV IN THE PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION APRIL 2004 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences __________________________ Prof. Dr. Sencer Ayata Director I certify that thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for degree of Master of Science __________________________ Prof. Dr. Feride Acar Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. __________________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Pınar Akçalı Supervisor Examining Committee Members Assist. Prof. Dr. Pınar Akcalı __________________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Canan Aslan __________________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever __________________________ ABSTRACT FAILED DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN: 1990-2000 Niazaliev, Ouran M.Sc., Department of Political Science and Public Administration Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pınar Akçalı April 2004, 158 p. This study seeks to analyze the process of transition and democratization in Kyrgyzstan from 1990 to 2000. The collapse of the Soviet Union opened new political perspectives for Kyrgyzstan and a chance to develop sovereign state based on democratic principles and values. Initially Kyrgyzstan attained some progress in building up a democratic state. However, in the second half of 1990s Kyrgyzstan shifted toward authoritarianism. Therefore, the full-scale transition to democracy has not been realized, and a well-functioning democracy has not been established. This study aims to focus on the impediments that led to the failure of establishing democracy in Kyrgyzstan. It analyzes the role of economy, political elites and political culture in the form of tribalism in Kyrgyzstan within the framework of the economic and political changes that have been undergoing since independence. The political and economic developments in Kyrgyzstan are discussed with specific reference to the hardships in economic transition, elite continuity and role of tribal and clan structures in present politics. Keywords: Kyrgyzstan, Transition, Democracy, Authoritarianism, Post-Independence Economy, Political Elites, Political Culture, Tribalism. iii ÖZ DEMOKRASİYE GEÇİŞTE BAŞARISIZLIK: KIRGIZİSTAN DENEYİMİ : 1990-2000 Niazaliev, Ouran Yüksek Lisans, Siyaset Bilimi ve Kamu Yönetimi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Yard. Doç. Dr. Pınar Akçalı Nisan 2004, 158 sayfa Bu çalışma, Kırgızistan’ın 1990-2000 arasındaki geçiş sürecini ve demokratikleşmeyi incelemektedir. Sovyet Birliği’nin dağılması Kırgızistan için yeni siyasi ufuklar ve demokratik ilkelere ve değerlere bağlı egemen devlet kurma olanağı sunmuştur. Başlangıçta Kırgızistan demokratik devlet kurma yolunda ilerleme göstermiştir. Ancak, 1990’ların ikinci yarısında Kırgızistan otoriterliğe doğru bir eğilim göstermiştir. Bu yüzden tam anlamıyla demokrasiye geçiş gerçekleşememiş ve iyi işleyen bir demokratik yapı yerleşememiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, Kırgızistan’da demokrasisin yerleşmesinde engel oluşturan unsurlara odaklanmaktır. Bu çalışma, bağımsızlık sonrası ekonomi ve siyasetteki değişimleri baz alarak Kırgızistan’da ekonominin rolü, siyasal elit ve siyasi kültürün bir biçimi olan kabileciliği incelemektedir. Kırgızistan’daki siyasal ve ekonomik gelişmeler, özellikle ekonomik geçişteki zorluklar, elit devamlılığı, kabilelerin ve kabileciliğin siyasetteki rolü ele almaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Kırgızistan, Geçiş, Demokrasi, Otoriterlik, Bağımsızlık sonrası Ekonomi, Siyasal Elit, Siyasal Kültür, Kabilecilik. iv To My Parents v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I express sincere appreciation to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pınar Akçalı, my supervisor, for her guidance and insight throughout the research. It is a great privilege and chance for me to know her and work with her. Without her never-ending support, it would be difficult for me to write this thesis. Thanks to the members of examining committee, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Canan Aslan and Dr. Oktay Tanrısever, for their suggestions and comments. I am also thankful to Dr. Bülent Arıcı for his friendship and his comments in the formulation of the research. His valuable information and comments made me better to understand the current politics in Central Asia in general and in Kyrgyzstan in particular. I am grateful to my mother Nuriya Nogoybaeva and my father Suerkul Niyazaliev for their never ending love, support and motivation during my study in Turkey. I would like to thank also Batyrkan Syrgabaev for his patience, support and encouragement throughout my study and my life as well. vi I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rule and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original in this work. Date: Signature: vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………. iii ÖZ........................................................................................................................ iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………… vi TABLE OF CONTENTS………………………………………………………. viii LIST OF TABLES …………………………………………………………….. x CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………. 1 1.1 Theoretical Framework…………………………………………….. 8 1.2 Methodology and Outline…………………………………………… 18 II. HISTORICAL LEGACY…………………………………………………….. 21 2.1 Thousands Years of History: from Ancient Times to the 1917 Great October Revolution…………………………………….. 21 2.2 Political Developments in Kyrgyzstan in the Soviet Era……………. 30 2.3 Kyrgyz Economy in the Pre-Soviet Era…………………………….. 42 2.4 Economic Development during the Soviet Era………………………. 44 2.4.1 Transformation of the Kyrgyz Economy between 1920-1950…………………………………. 45 2.4.2 Transformation of the Kyrgyz Economy between 1950-1991…………………………………. 49 III. ECONOMIC FACTORS…………………………………………………… 54 3.1 Legacy of the Soviet Economic System…………………………… 57 viii 3.1.1 Economic Dependency………………………………….. 57 3.1.2 Dominance of Agriculture in Economy………………….. 58 3.1.3 Ecological Problems……………………………………… 59 3.1.4 Physical Dependency…………………………………….. 60 3.2 Problems of Economic Transition…………………………………. 61 3.3 Economic Reforms 1991-1995…………………………………….. 65 3.3.1 Stabilization Policy………………………………………. 66 3.3.2 Liberalization of Prices and Trade……………………….. 68 3.3.3 Privatization……………………………………………… 69 3.3.4 Structural and Institutional Reforms…………………….. 71 3.4 The Economy of Kyrgyzstan in 1995-2000……………………….. 76 IV. POLITICAL FACTORS…………………………………………………... 87 4.1 Building New Political Order 1990- 1993………………………… 89 4.2 The New Constitution and Political Developments until 1995……. 94 4.3 Political Developments between 1995 and 2000………………….. 99 4.4 Political Elites and Political Culture………………………………. 110 4.4.1 Kyrgyz Political Elites…………………………………… 110 4.4.2 Political Culture of Kyrgyzstan………………………….. 125 4.4.2.1 Tribalism………………………………………. 128 V. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………….. 139 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………... 145 ix LIST OF TABLES TABLE 3.1 The Share of Net National Production by Sectors in 1991, (%)………… 58 3.2 Privatization of State Enterprises in Kyrgyzstan 1991-95……………... 71 3.3 Development of Important Economic Indicators, 1990-1995…………. 74 3.4 Economic Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-2000, (%)…………………………………………… 76 3.5 Real Gross Domestic Product in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-2000……………... 78 3.6 Changes in the Structure of Production and Employment (%)………… 79 3.7 The Poverty Rate in Kyrgyzstan based on Incomes (% of the population) 1993-2000………………………………………. 80 3.8 Changes in Inequality- Gini Coefficients (incomes) for Kyrgyzstan…… 81 4.1 The 1990 Parliamentary Elections: Party Membership of 1990 Parliament……………………………………………………… 118 4.2 The 1995 Parliamentary Elections: Previous Membership in the Communist Party………………………………………………… 119 4.3 The 2000 Parliamentary Elections: Previous Membership in the Communist Party………………………………………………… 119 4.4 Governments/Ministers 1991-2000: Previous Membership in the Communist Party ………………………………….…………….. 120 4.5 Heads of Regional Administration Akims (Governors) in Kyrgyzstan, 1991-2000: Party Membership and Occupation………………………… 120 4.6 Background of Prime Ministers of Kyrgyzstan (1991-2000)…………… 122 4.7 Governments/Ministers 1991-2000: Previous Occupation in the Communist Party…………………………………………………….…… 123 4.8 The 1995 Parliamentary Elections: Previous Occupation in the Communist Party…………………………………………………… 123 x 4.9 The 2000 Parliamentary Elections: Previous Occupation in the Communist Party …………………………………………………… 124 4.10 The 1995 Elections: Deputies Elected from their Places of Birth /Original Location………………………………………………… 132 4.11 The 2000 Elections: Deputies Elected from their Places of Birth/Original Location……………………………………………… 133 4.12 Electoral Support of the Regional Leaders………………………………. 134 4.13 Perception of the Threat by the Activists and Leaders in Kyrgyzstan….. 134 xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Kyrgyzstan is one of the republics of the former Soviet Union, which gained its independence on 31 August 1991 as a result of the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the communist system. Almost at the same time and in the same line with other post-communist states, Kyrgyzstan experienced transition from Soviet totalitarianism to democracy,