FABIAN REVIEW The quarterly magazine of the Fabian Society Spring 2014 / fabians.org.uk / £4.95 TORY TIDE Could a new wave of Conservative modernisation sink Labour? The Fabian Review investigates emerging Tory trends, with Paul Goodman, Rob Halfon, Isabel Hardman, Kirsty McNeill, Tim Montgomerie, Duncan O’Leary and Laura Sandys PLUS Mary Riddell speaks to Lord Ashcroft p14 FABIANS AT 130 But we are not a rich organisation. For 130 years the Fabian Society has We don’t have lots of big backers. championed ideas and ideals that have We rely on the generosity of our members shaped the left in Britain. to survive and thrive. The society today is the bearer In 2014 our goal is to raise of that proud tradition. £30,000 to support our vital work on tackling inequality in Britain. > CAN YOU HELP US? < Even a small regular donation will help Please complete the enclosed donation form alongside this magazine or visit: www.fabians.org.uk/members/fabians-130-appeal OUR APPEAL PATRONS Sadiq Khan Rachel Reeves Margaret Hodge MP MP MP Contents FABIAN REVIEW Volume 126—No. 1 Leader Andrew Harrop 2 Let a thousand roses bloom Shortcuts Clare McNeil 3 Unpicking the web Barry Sheerman 3 Crowd in Isabel Hardman 4 Seeing stars Paul Goodman 5 Mission unlikely Tim Montgomerie 6 Right direction Richard Carr, Dominic Rustecki 7 Closing the deal Cover story Duncan O’Leary 8 Blue wave Kirsty McNeill 10 There’s trouble abroad Rob Halfon 12 White van plan Laura Sandys 13 Re-making modernisation Interview Mary Riddell 14 Lord of all he surveys Policy Pitch Natan Doron 17 Follow the money Essay Anna Randle 18 Citizen central Feature Rosie Clayton 22 Nothing ventured, nothing gained Books Rob Tinker 24 Crisis? What crisis? 26 Fabian Society section FABIAN REVIEW FABIAN SOCIETY Events and Partnerships Membership Fabian Review is the quarterly journal of the 61 Petty France Assistant, Ben Sayah Membership Officer, Fabian Society. Like all publications of the Fabian London SW1H 9EU Giles Wright Society, it represents not the collective view of 020 7227 4900 (main) Editorial Local Societies Officer, the Society, but only the views of the individual 020 7976 7153 (fax) Head of Editorial, Ed Wallis Deborah Stoate writers. The responsibility of the Society is [email protected] Editorial Assistant, limited to approving its publications as worthy of www.fabians.org.uk Anya Pearson Finance and Operations consideration within the Labour movement. Media and Communications Head of Finance and General Secretary, Manager, Richard Speight Operations, Phil Mutero Editor, Ed Wallis Andrew Harrop Editorial Assistant, Anya Pearson Deputy General Secretary, Research Fabian Women’s Network Printed by DG3, London E14 9TE Marcus Roberts Senior Researcher, Natan Doron Ivana Bartoletti, Designed by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Researcher, Rob Tinker [email protected] Events and Partnerships ISSN 1356 1812 Head of Events and [email protected] Partnerships, Kate Godfrey 1 / Volume 126—No. 1 Leader © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com Let a thousand roses bloom We’re all localists now, but the nature of Labour’s decentralisation remains contested, writes Andrew Harrop ROM THE LEFT to the right of the Labour party, it Central government can be less controlling about would seem we’re all localists now. Recently, a how ends are achieved, leaving lots of space for grassroots Frange of thinktanks wrote to the Guardian calling innovation and local priorities. But when it comes to for Labour’s manifesto to embrace sweeping devolution the 2015 manifesto Labour should feel entitled to set of power. If the ‘big state’ Fabians are signed up, Labour’s big national goals for local services, be that extending argument on decentralisation is surely over? early years provision to bringing together health and Well, up to a point. England is the most centralised na- social care. tion in the developed world, so the broad direction of trav- Third, there should be a national approach to el is not in question. Devolution makes sense when the evidence and evaluation. We live in an age of growing success of public services depends on shared endeavour transparency, but data sheds no light without context. between citizens and professionals; on responding to local A national approach to tracking achievement is essential conditions and individual circumstances; and on overcom- for comparison and accountability, even though those ing fragmentation and institutional short-termism. tasks should be undertaken more often by local citizens But talking in generalities masks much that is unresolved. or professional peers, not ministers and inspectorates. There are ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ versions of localism and big ques- It is not just the role of the centre that remains un- tions remain about the place of national government. Yes, resolved, however. The nature of Labour’s decentralisation we should have a presumption of decentralisation. But only is contested too. Is it devolution to the city region, if Labour first defines a clear strategic role for the centre and neighbourhood or individual institutions that explains how and when that should be a check on localism. matters? What should be the balance of power between The centre matters for three reasons. First, only na- citizens, professionals and local elected politicians? tional (and sometimes supranational) institutions can re- In particular, it is far from clear that Labour views spond to the most serious long-term challenges: housing elected local councils as the key vehicle for localism. shortages, tax reform, climate change or financial stability. Labour councils are often singled out for praise, but Sometimes the solutions will be local, but only national it seems they won’t be trusted with new powers over government can set the long-term ambition and create schools or health. And they are judged too small to take the frameworks within which others can act. on responsibility for skills, transport and job centres. Second, England is a national political community. The Labour needs to be clear about the role of local coun- secretaries of state for health and education do not have cils, as well as national government. If it is not careful, new the public’s consent to walk away from their responsibili- local power will end up lying with anonymous, unelected ties, even if they wanted to. That may gradually change, bodies creating new deficits of democracy, accountability but for the foreseeable future, people will expect politi- and power. The pieces of the devolution jigsaw will only cians to specify the minimum entitlements and outcomes fit into place if stronger local government has the job of all can expect. coordinating every local public service. F 2 / Fabian Review Shortcuts exclusion agenda, though much progress support extended to reach more people, was made, inter-departmental wrangling coupled with far greater local control over often came before the joined-up local the array of funding streams involved. response that could have made a difference The weakness of Grayling’s reforms lies on the ground. not simply in their execution and intent, but Grayling’s model does nothing to over- in the fact that their ambition doesn’t extend come Whitehall’s siloed ways of working and beyond the criminal justice system. Perhaps UNPICKING THE WEB could make them worse. The large private if the probation service had been run with A genuine rehabilitation revolution companies competing for big contracts from greater local control and integration, it would reach beyond the criminal the Ministry of Justice are not in the business would not have been as easy to break it up of establishing links across the treatment and parcel it off with less fuss than a pack- justice system—Clare McNeil of substance misuse, homelessness support age sent to one of Her Majesty’s prisons. F and the mental health system. And yet for people caught up in an often senseless web Clare McNeil is a senior research fellow at IPPR It seems the furore over Chris Grayling’s of services, this integration is exactly what is decision to ban books being sent to prison- needed for a breakthrough. ers has attracted more public attention Before it was wound up by Gordon than his plans to privatise 70 per cent of Brown, the social exclusion taskforce, as it the probation service. As one civil servant ended up being known, began to unpick at a recent roundtable observed privately, this web. It did this on the basis that around you may disagree with his ‘rehabilitation half of those in prison have also been in revolution’ but he has a convincing story and drug and alcohol treatment, homelessness a clear plan for delivery, which is why the services and the mental health system. Not probation service itself has provided the only just one of these, but all four. And yet still real opposition to the reforms so far. people are dealt with in one or perhaps The reforms to break up Probation Trusts two professional categories, rather than as CROWD IN and hand over rehabilitation of around individuals, with the result that there are at People’s love for their local 220,000 low to medium risk offenders to least eight national funding streams targeted environment could be harnessed private firms and voluntary groups are mov- on people in these systems, each with their by a new world of political activity ing more slowly than Grayling would like. own set of requirements and outcomes. But once they do take hold, the coalition will Since then, local authorities like Greater made possible by emerging digital claim them as evidence of their strategy for Manchester, South Tyneside and many technologies—Barry Sheerman dealing with the ‘root causes of crime’.