Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989. Copyright © 2018 - Viella s.r.l. & Associazione Asia Maior ISSN 2385-2526 ISBN 978-88-3313-044-6 (paper) ISBN 978-88-3313-045-3 (e-book) Annual journal - Vol. XXVIII, 2017 Published jointly by Associazione Asia Maior & CSPE - Centro Studi per i Popoli extra-europei “Cesare Bonacossa” - Università di Pavia EDITOR (direttore responsabile): Michelguglielmo Torri (University of Tu- rin). CO-EDITORS: Elisabetta Basile (University of Rome «La Sapienza»); Nicola Mocci (University of Sassari). BOOK REVIEWS EDITORS: Oliviero Frattolillo (University Roma Tre); Francesca Congiu (University of Cagliari). STEERING COMMITTEE Axel Berkofsky (University of Pavia); Diego Maiorano (University of Notting- ham); Nicola Mocci (University of Sassari); Giulio Pugliese (King’s College London); Michelguglielmo Torri (University of Turin); Elena Valdameri (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETH Zurich); Pierluigi Valsecchi (Uni- versity of Pavia). The graphic design of this Asia Maior issue is by Nicola Mocci Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Bor- sa in 1989 is an open-access journal, whose issues and single articles can be freely downloaded from the think tank webpage: www.asiamaior.org. Paper version Italy € 50.00 Abroad € 65.00 Subscription [email protected] www.viella.it viella libreria editrice via delle Alpi, 32 I-00198 ROMA tel. 06 84 17 758 fax 06 85 35 39 60 www.viella.it CENTRO STUDI PER I POPOLI EXTRA-EUROPEI “CESARE BONACOSSA” - UNIVERSITÀ DI PAVIA ASIA MAIOR The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989 Vol. XXVIII / 2017 Asia in the Waning Shadow of American Hegemony Edited by Michelguglielmo Torri, Elisabetta Basile, Nicola Mocci viella ASSOCIAZIONE ASIA MAIOR Steering Committee: Marzia Casolari (President), Francesca Congiu, Diego Maiorano, Nicola Mocci (Vice President), Michelguglielmo Torri (Scientific Director). Scientific Board: Guido Abbattista (Università di Trieste), Domenico Ami- rante (Università «Federico II», Napoli), Elisabetta Basile (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Luigi Bonanate (Università di Torino), Claudio Cecchi (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Alessandro Colombo (Università di Mila- no), Anton Giulio Maria de Robertis (Università di Bari), Thierry Di Costan- zo (Université de Strasbourg), Max Guderzo (Università di Firenze), Franco Mazzei (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Giorgio Milanetti (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Paolo Puddinu (Università di Sassari), Adriano Rossi (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Giuseppe Sacco (Università «Roma Tre», Roma), Guido Samarani (Università «Ca’ Foscari», Venezia), Filippo Sabetti (McGill University, Montréal), Gianni Vaggi (Università di Pavia), Alberto Ventura (Università della Calabria) CSPE - Centro Studi per i Popoli extra-europei “Cesare Bonacossa” - Università di Pavia Steering Committee: Axel Berkofsky, Arturo Colombo, Antonio Morone, Giulia Rossolillo, Gianni Vaggi, Pierluigi Valsecchi (President), Massimo Zaccaria. Before being published in Asia Maior, all articles, whether commissioned or unsolicited, after being first evaluated by the Journal’s editors, are then submitted to a double-blind peer review involving up to three anonymous referees. Coherently with the double-blind peer review process, Asia Maior does not make public the name of the reviewers. However, their names – and, if need be, the whole correspondence between the journal’s editors and the reviewer/s – can be disclosed to interested institutions, upon a formal request made directly to the Director of the journal. Articles meant for publication should be sent to Michelguglielmo Torri (mg. [email protected]) and to Nicola Mocci ([email protected]); book reviews should be sent to Oliviero Frattolillo ([email protected]) and Francesca Congiu ([email protected]). CONTENTS 7 MICHELGUGLIELMO TORRI, Asia Maior in 2017: The unravelling of the US foreign policy in Asia and its consequences 29 MARCO MILANI, Korean Peninsula 2017: Searching for new balances 59 FRANCESCA CONGIU & CHRISTIAN ROSSI, China 2017: Searching for internal and international consent 93 SEBASTIAN MASLOW & GIULIO PUGLIESE, Japan 2017: Defending the domestic and international status quo 113 AURELIO INSISA, Taiwan 2017: Stalemate on the Strait 129 BONN JUEGO, The Philippines 2017: Duterte-led authoritarian populism and its liberal-democratic roots 165 ELENA VALDAMERI, Indonesia 2017: Towards illiberal democracy? 191 NICOLA MOCCI, Cambodia 2016-2017: The worsening of social and political conflicts 211 PIETRO MASINA, Thailand 2017: Political stability and democratic crisis in the first year of King Vajiralongkorn 227 MATTEO FUMAGALLI, Myanmar 2017: The Rohingya crisis between radicalisation and ethnic cleansing 245 MARZIA CASOLARI, Bangladesh 2017: The Rohingya’s carnage 267 MICHELGUGLIELMO TORRI & DIEGO MAIORANO, India 2017: Narendra Modi’s continuing hegemony and his challenge to China 291 MICHELGUGLIELMO TORRI, India 2017: Still no achhe din (good days) for the economy 309 MATTEO MIELE, Nepal 2015-2017: A post-earthquake constitution and the political struggle 331 FABIO LEONE, Sri Lanka 2017: The uncertain road of the «yahapalayanaya» government 351 MARCO CORSI, Pakistan 2017: Vulnerabilities of the emerging market 369 DIEGO ABENANTE, Afghanistan 2017: Trump’s «New Strategy», the Af-Pak conundrum, and the crisis of the National Unity Government 387 LUCIANO ZACCARA, Iran 2017: From Rouhani’s re-election to the December protests 411 ADELE DEL SORDI, Kazakhstan 2017: Institutional stabilisation, nation- building, international engagement 431 Reviews 461 Appendix NEPAL 2015-2017: A POST-EARTHQUAKE CONSTITUTION AND THE POLITICAL STRUGGLE* Matteo Miele Kokoro Research Center – Kyoto University [email protected] In 2015 the young Nepalese republic finally approved a new constitution, but before it could be adopted, its institutions found themselves facing the consequences of a series of devastating earthquakes that hit the country and in particular its capital. The tragedy forced the main political parties to reach an agreement in June 2015, and approval of the constitution was granted the following September. The approval and adoption of the new constitution was followed by the election of Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli as Prime Minister and of Bidhya Devi Bhandari as President of Nepal, both of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist). The Oli government had to face the long and dramatic blockade of the border with India, which ended a few days after the approval of a first amendment to the constitution. At the same time – under the premiership of Oli – the process of rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China continued and Nepal joined the Belt and Road Initiative. In August 2016, after break- ing up with Oli, historic Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known as Prachanda, again assumed the premiership of Nepal. He was supported by a coalition primarily made up of his own party and the Nepali Congress. Prachanda has pursued a more balanced foreign policy between New Delhi and Beijing, initially re-approaching India, but later reopening new spaces for Chinese diplomacy. In June 2017, Prachanda ceded the premiership to the Nepali Congress, in the person of Sher Bahadur Deuba. Deuba failed to get that second amendment to the constitution approved that was supposed to protect the Madhesi minority and whose approval had been at the heart of Nepalese in- ternal politics since the return to the government of Prachanda. In October 2017, after the local elections, the CPN-UML and the Maoists allied themselves against the Nepali Congress, while Deuba failed to form an equally strong coalition. The result of the No- vember-December 2017 elections was therefore a severe defeat of the Nepali Congress and a landslide victory of the Left alliance. The latter obtained almost two thirds of the House of Representatives’ seats and the control of six states out of seven. This reopened both the internal issues of the young Nepalese democracy and the geopolitical ones. 1. Introduction 2015 was a tragic and decisive year for Nepal. Tragic because the coun- try was hit between April and May by a series of earthquakes that upset the *. This work, whose author is a JSPS International Research Fellow (Kokoro Research Center - Kyoto University), was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 17F17306, financed by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT) and by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). The help of both institutions is here gratefully acknowledged. Asia Maior, XXVIII / 2017 309 MATTEO MIELE social, cultural and economic dimension of the Himalayan country. Decisive because, a few weeks after the earthquakes, the main political parties finally reached an agreement for the approval of a constitution that the country had been anticipating for several years. This article will proceed, after briefly pre- senting the political agreements following the earthquake, to the presentation of the main elements of the new Nepali form of government. Alongside the institutional aspects, attention will be paid to the political and geopolitical path of the young republic. In particular, immediately after the approval of the constitution, the government’s leadership passed from the Nepali Con- gress to the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) with the election of Khadga Prasad Oli as Prime