ISSUE 11 | DECEMBER 2014 Report on peace and security in the ECOWAS area Benin elections: the waiting game Summary After more than 24 years of democracy, Benin is entering an intricate electoral cycle with three sets of upcoming elections. The local, communal and municipal elections that have been postponed since 2013 will be held in 2015; parliamentary elections are also scheduled for 2015; and a presidential election is scheduled for 2016, in which President Yayi is expected to hand over power to his successor. There are currently many questions and uncertainties about these elections, including why the electoral list remains unavailable just three months before the 2015 legislative elections. Decisions are being made based on both political and electoral calculations, which complicates the environment in which elections will take place. If left unchecked, this situation could threaten political stability and the consolidation of the democratic process in Benin. The legislative elections in Benin are scheduled for February/March 2015 and the presidential election must take place a year later. According to the 1990 constitution, parliament should be up and running no later than the first half of April 2015, while the new president must be sworn in at the beginning of April 2016. These deadlines are enshrined in the constitution and the authorities have virtually no room for manoeuvre in this regard, unlike the communal, municipal and local elections, whose deadlines have been the subject of legislation that facilitates postponement. Because the most recent communal, municipal and local elections took place in 2008, a new poll should have been held in 2013, but it continues to be postponed. Following the first decade of Benin’s independence, which was characterised by chronic political instability, what was then called Dahomey experienced a military-Marxist dictatorship from 1972 to 1990. The National Conference of January 1990 marked the beginning of a process known as ‘Democratic Renewal’. The constitutional referendum in December 1990 led to the adoption of an essentially democratic, liberal, and pluralistic constitution enshrining human rights and civil liberties. REPORT ON PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE ECOWAS AREA This constitution, which is still in force, gave birth to democratic institutions, including the executive (led by the President of the Republic), the National Assembly, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, and the High Authority for Audiovisual and Communication. Over time other institutions have emerged that are not yet constitutional, such as the Autonomous National Electoral Commission (CENA). The constitution has more or less effectively regulated the electoral cycle, which has run fairly smoothly since the constitution was passed. Thus, Benin has experienced five presidential elections, six parliamentary elections, and two communal and municipal elections (as well as one local election). The National Conference of January 1990 marked the beginning of a process known as ‘Democratic Renewal’ The current pre-election context raises several important questions, which are the subject of this analysis. They range from the causes of the postponement of the 2013 communal, municipal and local elections to the risks hanging over the holding of the next parliamentary elections and the 2016 presidential election. These questions also touch on sociopolitical tensions (some of which seem to be recurring), the outstanding issue of the permanent computerised electoral list (LEPI), President Yayi’s potential ambitions for a third presidential term, the role of civil society and possible solutions to these problems that should be considered. A tense pre-election context Elections postponed amid political calculations The sociopolitical context in Benin is multifaceted. The local, communal and municipal elections that should have taken place in the second half of 2013 have not been held for at least two reasons. Firstly – and this is the most widely known reason – the elections could not be held without an adequate electoral list. Correcting and updating the LEPI should have been completed by the end of 2013. While the final deadline was announced for 17 December 2014, the process had still not been completed at the beginning of December 2014, and this deadline was postponed again, this time to the second half of January 2015 at the earliest. However, the non-availability of the electoral list is not the only reason for the postponement of the elections. There is speculation that in reality most politicians and political parties do not want the elections to be held on time. This is simply an electoral calculation: they believe their chances of winning the elections would be higher near the end of the term of the current president, Thomas Boni Yayi. For them the political influence of the head of state, which is currently greater as one moves away from urban centres, would be less significant at that point. This calculation has been done both by the official supporters of the president and by the opposition, which is explained by the political THERE IS SPECULATION THAT clientelism that characterises Benin (and other countries in Africa). MOST POLITICIANS AND POLITICAL PARTIES DO NOT Because the head of state has announced his departure on several occasions, WANT THE ELECTIONS TO BE politicians – including those in his camp – are already in the post-Yayi phase. If HELD ON TIME he hopes to control the communal elections in the hope of influencing the course of events until his departure and even after, others prefer to be released from his 2 BENIN ELECTIONS: THE WAITING GAME REPORT ON PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE ECOWAS AREA influence and to reposition themselves in relation to the next reasons (work, health, travel, etc.), could not in good faith be presidential candidates. Since the second half of 2012 there registered. Nevertheless, it is hoped that the ongoing process have been calls – in particular from the presidential camp – will provide a clearer idea of the situation, beyond politicians’ for the proposed coupling of local, communal and municipal speeches, which are tainted by ulterior motives. elections with parliamentary elections. In response to these The second criticism is much more serious. Assigning proposals in late 2012 and early 2013 the president reaffirmed voters to polling stations and voting points has created real the need to hold the elections according to schedule. It is in problems, especially for technical reasons, but also as a result this context that the LEPI issue has enabled a near consensus of circumstances.2 This could be corrected in three ways: regarding the postponement of the 2013 elections. by assigning voters to the polling station of their choice; by LEPI: the politicians’ hostage establishing polling stations and voting points in advance and by legal means; and by establishing the boundaries between The LEPI was established amid a highly charged sociopolitical districts in towns and villages to take into account the new context just before the 2011 presidential and parliamentary administrative entities. These measures should enable a lasting elections, which resulted in President Yayi being re-elected solution to the issues of polling stations and voting points, as head of state. There was substantial mistrust among both in terms of the geographical locations of voters and sociopolitical stakeholders, and between the resolute partisans the transparency, reliability and predictability of the election of ‘Anything but Yayi’ and the supporters of ‘Yayi: 10 years!’ process, in particular voting. Atavistic distrust of some towards the LEPI was exacerbated by the unprecedented victory of the president in the first round The process of correcting and updating the LEPI faces of the 2011 presidential elections. In late December 2012 three challenges. The first, which is political in nature, is politicians eventually decided through a law passed by the related to the unspoken, unofficial decision by a large part National Assembly to correct and update the LEPI. of the political class in favour of postponing the elections, The LEPI Guidance and Supervision Council (COS/LEPI) was with a view to coupling the parliamentary elections with the then established in May 2013. It comprises five members of communal, municipal and local elections. the presidential majority party, four of the opposition and two members of the administration, i.e. the director general of the Development partners refused to National Institute for Statistical and Economic Analysis and the contribute to funding the updating registrar general. The COS/LEPI has a crucial responsibility to make the LEPI available to the CENA, which is responsible for of the LEPI organising the elections. The latter then proposes a date for the elections to the head of state, who passes it by decree. The second challenge faced by the process is financial. The unavailability of the electoral list could stall the entire This is not new. From the beginning it was clear that the electoral process, making the role of the COS/LEPI, which is process as envisaged by law and implemented by the COS/ controlled exclusively by parliamentarians, fundamental. This is LEPI would be expensive, especially because Benin had to especially true given that the law to update the LEPI has made bear the cost almost by itself, in light of the flat refusal by its the holding of local elections conditional on the availability of development partners to do so. The latter were made wary the list and the ‘stamp’ of the COS/LEPI1. by the experience of establishing the original LEPI, during which they endured harassment. Without a clear explanation Two main criticisms have been made regarding the first version of why the entire process had to start from scratch rather of the LEPI: the high number of voters that were deliberately than just making the necessary corrections, development omitted (a figure of two million has been cited) and the problem partners therefore refused to contribute to funding the of assigning voters to voting points and polling stations.