Master Thesis Democratization reversal and its impact on poverty in Tanzania Fifth phase government Author: Lutiger Chamicha Haule Supervisor: Elvis Bisong Tambe Examiner: Yonhyok Choe Term: VT21 Subject: Master Thesis Level: Second Level Course code: 5SK30E Abstract The aim of this thesis is to explore democratic reversal/ backsliding in the United Republic of Tanzania and identify its impact on poverty, with the focus on the fifth phase government which begun in 2015 when the late president John Joseph Pombe Magufuli came to power to March 2021 when he passed on. To explain the relationship between democratic reversal and poverty and whether the former has impact on the later this thesis is built upon several theories namely the Liberal democratic theory, The Bottom Billion, theories on democratic backsliding, and extractive and inclusive Political and Economic Institutions theory. Using Quantitative methodology and relying on the Afrobarometer survey data and freedom house index, I examine the impact of democratic reversal on poverty. Specifically, using descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate analysis the result reveal democratization reversal in Tanzania under the fifth phase government has very minimal impact on poverty hence the relationship between poverty and democratic erosion is not strong. Key words Democracy, Democratization reversal/ backsliding, poverty, Bottom billion, inclusive and extractive political and economic institutions. Acknowledgments First and foremost, I give thanks to the almighty God for giving me the strength to hold on, from the beginning of my school to writing this thesis. I pay special tribute to my late darling mother, Upendo Mponela, who passed on 21st July 2020 as she strongly encouraged me to do my best and never give up. Her phone calls every day to encourage me in my studies and her love and care to my child Carmelo Godfrey were crucial while I am away. Special thanks to my mother and friend Agatha for holding my hand after my mother has passed on, to willingly take over the responsibility of taking care of my son; it could not have been easy without her loving hand. My darling farther Leodgard Chamicha Haule for he always encouraged me to aim higher and he has always been the best father, friend, and mentor, his wise words have guided me. I also thank my darling son Carmelo for remaining strong while I am away for studies, I have always been connected to him spiritually, and every single thought about him made me work hard in my studies. This thesis's accomplishment has also been made possible by the invaluable supervision of the competent and excellent supervisor, Elvis Bisong Tambe of Linnaeus University, Department of Political science, for guiding me professionally to accomplish this thesis. Special thanks to all who supported, encouraged, and made me stay positive, including my friends, fellow students, and my siblings, on special note, Christina Fungamwango, Kelvin Mgimba, Obed Mwinuka, Sara Mwalongo, Joyce Mlelwa, Isaya Stanley. Finally, I sincerely acknowledge the Swedish Institute, my studies and life in Sweden have been fully funded by the Swedish Institute of Scholarship for Global Professionals throughout the two years of studies and I could not have made it without the scholarship. Växjö, June 2021 --------------------------------------------- Lutiger Chamicha Haule Table of contents 1 Introduction 1 1.2 Thesis Purpose statement 5 1.3 The objective and aim of the study. 6 1.4 Research questions 6 1.5 Overview of the coverage and structure of the study 7 2 Tanzania in context 8 2.1 Government phases, democratization, and poverty in Tanzania 8 2.2 The fifth phase government and democratic backsliding 10 2.3 Civil and political liberties 11 2.3.1 Blanket ban to political rallies and activities 11 2.3.2 Arbitrary arrest and detention of opposition leaders. 12 2.3.3 Imprisonment of High-profile opposition leader 12 2.3.4 Repression on the media and civil societies 12 2.4 Repressive Laws, Rules, and Regulations 13 3 Theoretical Approach 14 3.1 Liberal Democratic Theory 14 3.2 Bottom Billion Theory 15 3.2.1 Democracy and Poverty 15 3.2.2 Economic Growth and Poverty 17 3.3 Extractive and Inclusive Political and Economic Institutions Theory 19 3.3.1 Inclusive and extractive political institutions 20 3.3.2 Inclusive and extractive economic Institutions 21 3.4 Democratic backsliding Theories 23 3.4.1 Executive aggrandizement 24 3.4.2 Strategic elections manipulation 25 4 Research Methodology 27 4.1 Methodological philosophical positioning 27 4.2 Case selection/ Single country comparative method 28 4.3 Selection of dataset 29 4.4 Variable’s measurement and operationalization 30 4.4.1 Dependent variable Poverty 31 4.4.2 Independent variable / democratic reversal 31 4.4.3 The Control Variables 31 4.5 Quantitative data analysis 33 5 Results: 34 5.1 Democratization reversal and its impact on poverty in Tanzania: Descriptive statistics and bivariate relationships. 34 5.2 Summary of descriptive statistics 34 5.2.1 How often gone without food 36 5.2.2 Gone without Cash Income 37 5.2.3 Gone without medical care. 37 5.2.4 Gone without enough fuel to cook your food. 37 5.3 Graphical Bivariate Descriptions 39 5.4 Democratization reversal and its impact on poverty in Tanzania: Multivariate Analysis 42 5.4.1 Discussion of result: Model 1 43 5.4.1 Discussion of result: Model 2 44 5.4.2 Discussion of Result: Model 3: 44 5.5 Democratic reversal and poverty in Tanzania~ where the hypothesis confirmed or rejected. 45 5.6 Summary of results 47 6 Conclusion 48 6.1 Knowledge developed. 49 6.2 Suggestion for further researchers 49 6.3 Limitation of the study 49 6.4 Recommendations 49 1 Introduction This study focuses on the impact of a democratic reversal on poverty in Tanzania, focusing on the fifth phase of government. The topic is essential as it is based on global concern issues for the betterment and dignity of human lives. International debates and efforts are directed towards democratic erosion in many countries, poverty, and inequality. On the part of Tanzania, the slogan by the 5th phase government was "Work," urging citizens to work hard for their emancipation from poverty. Hence, all other matters considered by the fifth government to stall development efforts and reduce poverty, including democracy, were disregarded. According to World Bank (Cruz et al. l 2015)1, some 900 million people live in extreme poverty today, having less than USD 1.9 per day on which to survive. Majority live just above the poverty line, and that at least a quarter of the developing world's population is in or close to poverty. Despite the economic and sustained growth experienced by many African countries, still, poverty and inequality prevail across the continent, notably in Tanzania. Poverty is defined differently by different authors. For economists, the favorable definition of poverty is one that favors monetary measures by using data from household surveys of income and expenditure. A household classified as poor falls below a defined poverty line; however, not all countries have data to define poverty in monetary terms; therefore, measures of "Dollar a day" variety which currently is US$ 1.90 to reflect the rise in the cost of living are often used to calculate the global and regional aggregates.2 The world Bank adjusts the poverty line over time to reflect the rising cost of living of basic food, closing, and shelter. Regarding the other non-monetary measure of poverty, different dimensions are considered to define poverty, including but not limited to infant mortality, Life expectancy, and literacy, where women are stated to do worse than men in terms of 1 Cited in Burnell et al. l Page 245. 2 Burnell et al. l page 245 1(55) different dimensions. Further, the children of the chronically poor generally remain poor even when they become adults.3 The global policy on sustainable development, the Agenda 2030 adopted on 25th September 2015 by the heads of states at the United Nations, identifies poverty and all its dimensions as the greatest global challenge needing serious attention thus the 17 integrated and indivisible goals with 169 targets seeking by 2030 to end poverty and hunger, realize human rights, gender equality, as women and girl's empowerment and to protect the planet. The Agenda identifies lack of freedom, power, influence, health, and physical safety to mean poverty. The Agenda urges all nations, regardless of their status must be included to end poverty for people to enjoy human rights. To achieve poverty eradication, each state has the responsibility to their citizens and incorporation of rights and gender equality perspective.4 With regards to democracy and poverty, the vision of the Agenda 2030 envisages a world where democracy, good governance, and the rule of law are respected as they are essential for, among other aspects of sustainable development, eradication of poverty and hunger5it is important thus to understand what democracy entails. Democracy is not only about the procedural aspect like multiparty elections (minimalist democracy).6 However, a broad definition is concerned with quality in terms of participation and outcome (Beetham 2004).7 that is to say, a substantive theoretical approach that broadens the concept of democracy to look more to the actual outcome in terms of participation and poverty alleviation rather than limiting democracy to its minimalist and formalist side (Mkandawire 2006).8 Substantive democracy encompasses elected officials, free and fair elections, Inclusive suffrage, right to run for office, freedom of expression, alternative information whereby Citizens have a right to seek out alternative sources of information, and associational 3 Currie B et al. l, 2014 page 86-87 4 Agenda 2030 page 4 5 Ibid 6 Schumpeter 1942 7 Cited in Jonas 2013 page 14.