Evidence to accompany the Species Biodiversity Indicators – Annex 3: Summary of Evidence __________________________________________________________________________________________ Provision of Evidence to accompany the UK and England Species Trend Indicators and an Overview of the Causes of Biodiversity Change Project Reference BE0112 Annex 3 – Summary of Evidence March 2016 Report authors: Nick Isaac, Mark Eaton, Fiona Burns Contributing authors: Rob Dyer, Tom August, David Roy & Richard Gregory Summary This report is a summary of evidence relating to the eleven species indicators. It is prepared under Defra contract reference BE0112: Provision of Evidence to accompany the UK and England Species Trend Indicators and an Overview of the Causes of Biodiversity Change. The report is arranged into three main sections. Section 1 introduces the eleven species-based measures in the UK Biodiversity Indicators, and the similarities and differences between them. Section 2 describes a work package of the quantitative analyses and section 3 is a literature review on drivers of change. 1 Evidence to accompany the Species Biodiversity Indicators – Annex 3: Summary of Evidence __________________________________________________________________________________________ Contents Technical report – Summary of Evidence .......................................................................................................... 1 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Quantitative analysis of the biodiversity indicators ...................................................................................... 7 2.1. Homogeneity (WP 1.1) ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1. Aim ................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2. Background ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.3. Approach ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1.4. Results ........................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.5. Interpretation ................................................................................................................................ 13 2.2. Spatio-temporal biases (WP 1.2) .......................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1. Aim ................................................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.2. Background .................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.3. General Approach .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.4. To what degree are the datasets biased by country and landcover? ........................................... 14 2.2.6. To what degree are sample locations randomly distributed in space? ........................................ 16 2.2.7. To what degree do spatial biases increase over time? ................................................................. 19 2.2.8. Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 20 2.3. Sensitivity to the time-window of assessment (WP 1.3) ...................................................................... 20 2.3.1. Aim ................................................................................................................................................. 20 2.3.2. Background .................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.3. General Approach .......................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.4. Long-term assessment ................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.5. Length of window for Short-term assessment .............................................................................. 22 2.3.6. Interpretation ................................................................................................................................ 23 3. Literature Review on Drivers of Change (WP2) .......................................................................................... 25 3.1 What evidence is there for changes before the start of the index (WP2.1)? ........................................ 25 3.2 What are the drivers of change? ........................................................................................................... 27 3.2.1 Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.1. C4a. Status of priority species – relative abundance .................................................................... 35 3.2.2. C4b. Status of priority species – frequency of occurrence – insects ............................................. 39 3.2.3. C5a. Farmland birds ....................................................................................................................... 44 3.2.4. C5b. Woodland birds ..................................................................................................................... 47 3.2.5. C5c. Wetland birds ........................................................................................................................ 50 3.2.6. C5d. Seabirds ................................................................................................................................. 53 3.2.7 C5e. Wintering waterbirds ............................................................................................................. 55 3.2.8. C6a. Insects of the countryside - Semi-natural habitat specialists ................................................ 58 3.2.9. C6a. Insects of the countryside - Species of the wider countryside .............................................. 61 3.2.10. C8. Mammals of the Countryside ................................................................................................ 64 3.2.11. D1c. Status of Pollinating Insects................................................................................................. 67 3.3 To what extent are the same drivers operating across indicators (WP2.3)? ........................................ 73 3.4 Consequences of change ...................................................................................................................... 76 3.4.1. What are the broader implications of the changes in the biodiversity indicators for biodiversity more generally? ....................................................................................................................................... 76 3.4.2. What do the trends tell us about ecosystem services and natural capital? ................................. 77 3.5 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................... 80 4. References ................................................................................................................................................... 81 5. Glossary ....................................................................................................................................................... 85 6. Annex: Aichi Targets relevant to Species Indicators ................................................................................... 86 2 Evidence to accompany the Species Biodiversity Indicators – Annex 3: Summary of Evidence __________________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction The “UK Biodiversity Indicators” show changes in the status of wildlife through a series of trend assessments. Until 2014, these were published under the title “Biodiversity in Your Pocket” (BIYP). Eleven ‘species indicators’ are generated from observations of wild animals (table 1.1). This project, BE0112, was conceived to conduct a formal review of evidence about the species indicators at UK and England levels. Table 1.1: Summary statistics for the 11 biodiversity indicators to be considered in this project. Statistics are for the 2014 version of the indicators: in the 2015 version two indicators (C4b and D1c) were substantially overhauled and others experienced minor changes to methodology and species composition. Total refers to the number of species contributing to the indicator; Unique is the number of species that do not contribute to other indicators. End is the last year for which the indicator was assessed in 2014 (for birds and butterflies there is one extra year of data). Indicator UK reference