New Horizons Symposium - 2018 “Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security” 22 October 2018 “Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security” Symposium Proceedings New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group (ISSG) is a non-partisan, independent, and non-profit think tank organisation. The mission of Beyond the Horizon is to influence and promote global peace and security by empowering decision and policy makers and advocating paths to build a better world and prevent, mitigate or end crisis and conflict. Beyond the Horizon is determined to be a unique think tank with a focus on realistic policies and in-depth analyses to offer comprehensive solutions on topics related to international politics and security, peace and conflict studies. Disclaimer and Other Legal Information “This is a joint publication of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and the Beyond the Horizon ISSG. This publication receives funding from the European Parliament. The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the Beyond the Horizon ISSG and the European Parliament assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or any subsequent use of the information contained therein. Sole responsibility lies on the author of the publication” © 2018 New Horizons Symposium New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Proceedings (22 October 2018) DOI : 10.31175/p.2018.01 (printed) DOI : 10.31175/p.2018.02 (online) ISBN : 9789082987508 (printed) ISBN : 9789082987508 (online) Please cite as: Surname, Name (Writer) (2018), “Article name”, New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Proceedings, Brussels. For more information visit www.behorizon.org Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security Symposium Proceedings Proceedings of the 1st New Horizons Symposium on “Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security” 22 October 2018, Brussels, Belgium New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security Contents Foreword 6 Agenda 7 Keynote Address 8 Prof. Jamie Shea Discussion on the Collapse of the Liberal World Order 12 Prof. Tanguy Struye de Swielande Power Vacuums and the Return of Great Power 13 Competition Prof. Christopher Coker The Rise of Illiberalism 15 Dr. Heather Grabbe The Spurring of a New Arms Race 17 Prof. Tom Sauer The Role of Non-state Actors in the Future of Global 21 Governance and International Security Prof. Raffaele Marchetti Return of Political Warfare 23 Prof. Hall Gardner Disinformation as a Political Weapon 25 Prof. Žiga Turk Technology on the frontier of race for Global Domination: Cyberspace, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics 27 Prof. C.M. Jonker New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Foreword New Horizons Symposium, as an annual landmark event, aspires to be a unique platform for political, academic and business leaders across the globe to discuss and provide solutions for the most pressing issues of our time. It aims to serve as an important stage for diplomacy and a platform for international engagement for both public and private sectors. We held the initial issue of New Horizons Symposium series which focused on the emerging trends reshaping the international security. Panel discussions conducted by some of the best minds on their respective subjects, provided their strategic forethought and insight on the collapse of the liberal world order and the expansion of future conflict domains. The venue was also an opportunity for academia and field experts to meet and extend their respective networks. As New Horizons Community, we shared knowledge, discovered latest trends, capabilities, and potential collective responses to future risks and threats across the globe. Together with our strategic partners and sponsors, we hosted leading figures, institutions and delegations in the symposium. Co-organizers Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group is a non-partisan, independent, and non-profit think tank. The mission of Beyond the Horizon is to promote global peace and security by empowering decision and policy- makers with knowledge and advocating paths to prevent, mitigate or end crises and conflicts. Beyond the Horizon is unique in its focus on realistic policies and in-depth analyses to offer comprehensive solutions on topics related to international politics and security, peace and conflict studies. As an independent voice, Beyond the Horizon aims to translate applied and basic research in its focus areas into a language that is understandable, reliable and accessible for a wide audience. The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies is the Political foundation at European level of the European People’s Party and an EU think tank. The Martens Centre embodies a pan-European mindset, promoting Christian Democrat, conservative and like-minded political values. It serves as a framework for national political foundations linked to member parties of the EPP. The Martens Centre takes part in the preparation of EPP programmes and policy documents. It organises seminars and training on EU policies and on the process of European integration. The Martens Centre also contributes to formulating EU and national public policies. 6 Emerging Trends Reshaping the International Security Agenda 09.00 - 09.45 Registration and Ice breaker 09.45 - 09.50 Welcome Remarks 09.50 - 10.15 Keynote Address Speaker: Prof. Jamie Shea Senior Fellow, Friends of Europe and former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO 10.15 - 12.15 Discussion on the Collapse of the Liberal World Order Moderator: Prof. Tanguy Struye de Swielande Université Catholique de Louvain Power Vacuums and the Return of Great Power Competition Panellist: Prof. Christopher Coker London School of Economics and Political Science The Rise of Illiberalism Panellist: Dr. Heather Grabbe Open Society European Policy Institute Panel I The Spurring of a New Arms Race Panellist: Prof. Tom Sauer University of Antwerpen Future of the Fragile States in the International Order Panellist: Prof. M. A. Muqtedar Khan University of Delaware 12.15 - 12.45 Q & A 12.45 - 13.30 Walking Lunch and Networking 13.30 - 15.30 Discussion on the Expansion of Future Conflict Domains Moderator: Prof. Michel Liegeois Université Catholique de Louvain The Role of Non-state Actors in the Future of Global Governance and Int’l Security Panellist: Prof. Raffaele Marchetti The School of Government of LUISS Return of the Political Warfare Panellist: Prof. Hall Gardner The American University of Paris Panel II Disinformation as a Political Weapon Panellist: Prof. Žiga Turk Martens Centre Academic Council Member, University of Ljubljana Technology on the Frontier of a Race for Global Domination: Cyberspace, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics Panellist: Prof. C.M. Jonker Delft University of Technology and Leiden University 15.30 - 16.00 Q & A 16.00 - 16.15 Coffee Break 16.15 - 16.35 Closing Remarks on Emerging Trends Reshaping Int’l Security Moderator: Prof. Michel Liegeois, President of ISPOLE, UCL Prof. Michel Liegeois, President of ISPOLE, UCL Prof. M. A. Muqtedar Khan, University of Delaware Prof. Hall Gardner, The American University of Paris Prof. Tanguy Struye de Swielande, CECRI, UCL 7 New Horizons Symposium - 2018 Keynote Address Jamie P. Shea, Keynote Speaker Professor of Strategy and Security of the Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter, United Kingdom Senior Fellow, Friends of Europe Former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO Biography Prior to joining the University of Exeter, Jamie Shea was an international public servant and a member of the International Staff of NATO for 38 years. His last NATO post was Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges. Other positions included Director of Policy Planning in the Private Office of the Secretary General, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for External Relations, Public Diplomacy Division, Director of Information and Press, Spokesman of NATO and Deputy Director of Information and Press, Deputy Head and Senior Planning Officer in the Policy Planning and Multilateral Affairs Section of the Political Directorate as well as Assistant to the Secretary General of NATO for Special Projects. Outside NATO, Jamie Shea has been involved with several prominent academic institutions. For 20 years, he was Professor at the Collège d’Europe, Bruges. He was also Visiting Lecturer in the Practice of Diplomacy, University of Sussex, Associate Professor of International Relations at the American University, Washington DC, where he also held the position of Director of the Brussels Overseas Study Programme. He has also lectured at the Brussels School of International Studies at the University of Kent and at the Security and Strategy institute of the University of Exeter, where he was an Honorary Fellow for six years. Jamie Shea is a Senior Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a Senior Fellow at the London School of Economics, where he teaches a course on crisis management and political communication. Jamie Shea is a regular writer, lecturer and conference speaker on NATO and European security affairs and on public diplomacy, political communication and many other areas of contemporary international relations. He holds a D.Phil. in Modern History from Oxford University (Lincoln College), 1981. Amongst his many associations and memberships, Jamie Shea is a member of the Advisory Board, Security and Defence Programmes at Chatham House, a