Florida State University Libraries 2016 Aging Driver Focused Traffic Crash Frequency and Severity Analyses Aschkan Omidvar Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY FAMU-FSU COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AGING DRIVER FOCUSED TRAFFIC CRASH FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY ANALYSES By ASCHKAN OMIDVAR A Thesis submitted to the Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2016 © 2016 Aschkan Omidvar Aschkan Omidvar defended this thesis on July 12, 2016 The members of the supervisory committee were: O. Arda Vanli Professor Co-Directing Thesis Eren Erman Ozguven Professor Co-Directing Thesis Abhishek K. Shrivastava Committee Member Chiwoo Park Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii Dedicated to those who made me a better man… iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisors Dr. Arda Vanli and Dr. Eren Erman Ozguven for providing me the opportunity to come to Florida State University and be part of their research group. I will forever be indebted to them for the guidance, mentorship and support throughout my studies. The past two years of research experience under their guidance is a tremendous asset to my career and life. I am also thankful to my MS committee members Dr. Chiwoo Park and Dr. Shrivastava, for their insightful advice and comments have served as valuable inputs for the engineering and scientific significance of this research. This thesis was supported by United States Department of Transportation grant DTRT13-G- UTC42, and administered by the Center for Accessibility and Safety for an Aging Population (ASAP) at the Florida State University (FSU), Florida A&M University (FAMU), and University of North Florida (UNF). We also thank the Florida Department of Transportation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for providing the data. The opinions, results, and findings expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the United States Department of Transportation, The Florida Department of Transportation, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Center for Accessibility and Safety for an Aging Population, the Florida State University, the Florida A&M University, or the University of North Florida. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... x Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... xi 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Traffic Crash Analysis: Statistical Tools ............................................................................ 3 2.1.1 Logistic Regression ................................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Poisson and Negative Binomial ................................................................................ 6 2.1.3 Statistical Learning Methods .................................................................................... 9 2.2 Traffic Crash Analysis: Computational Intelligence ........................................................ 10 2.2.1 Traffic Crash Analysis: Neural Networks............................................................... 11 2.2.2 Traffic Crash Analysis: Other Approaches ............................................................. 13 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS .............................................................. 15 3.1 Data Collection and Pre-Processing .................................................................................. 16 3.1.1 Statewide FDOT Crash Dataset .............................................................................. 17 3.1.2 Meteorological Data................................................................................................ 18 3.1.3 Hourly Traffic Flow ................................................................................................ 18 3.2 Exploratory Descriptive Analysis ..................................................................................... 22 3.3 Correlation Analysis for the Entire Corridor .................................................................... 28 3.4 Logistic Regression Analysis ............................................................................................ 29 3.4.1 Logistic Regression Analysis of Crash Frequency for Roadway Segments ........... 31 3.4.2 Exploratory Analysis for Crash Severity ................................................................ 36 3.4.3 Logistic Regression Analysis of Crash Severity for Roadway Segments .............. 39 3.5 Prediction Capabilities using ROC Curves ....................................................................... 49 3.5.1 Crash Frequency Prediction Analysis ...................................................................... 51 3.6 Research Limitations ........................................................................................................ 54 4. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS .......................................... 57 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. 60 A. KERNEL DENSITY FUNCTION FOR CRASH SEVERITY (JAX) .................................... 60 B. KERNEL DENSITY FUNCTION FOR CRASH SEVERITY (MIAMI ................................ 62 v References ..................................................................................................................................... 64 Biographical Sketch ...................................................................................................................... 71 vi LIST OF FIGURES 1 Research Methodology ........................................................................................................ 15 2 I-95 Corridor and TTMS Stations in Florida ....................................................................... 19 3 A Sample of FTI User Interface........................................................................................... 19 4 Output Database Processed for the Research....................................................................... 21 5 Time Series Plots for Traffic Flow: North and South Directions and April and Summer Months Hourly Averages ..................................................................................................... 23 6 Time Series Plot of Hourly Crash Counts for All and Aging Drivers ................................. 25 7 Histograms of Crash Flows for All and an Aging Drivers in Miami ................................... 26 8 Flow Dot-plots of Flow Data for Different Light Conditions (a) Miami, (b) Jacksonville . 28 9 Traffic Characteristics for the I-95 Corridor in Florida, (a) Correlation Matrix for The AADT vs. Roadway Width for All Segments, (b) AADT, and Crashes for All Age Groups and Aging-Involved Crash Frequencies Versus Distance (miles) .............................................. 29 10 Logit Curves for Crash Probability vs. Flow, (a) Miami Station 2 All Drivers, (b) Miami Station 2 Aging Drivers ....................................................................................................... 35 11 (a) Crash Severity Kernel Density Maps for the Miami 1-location in (b) 2010, (c) 2011, (d) 2012...................................................................................................................................... 37 12 Kernel Density for Miami 1 for Year 2010 and Comparison to The Scaled Density Values on The Highway for The Years 2010, 2011 and 2012. ........................................................ 38 13 Kernel Density Function on a 2-D plain for 3 years. X: Segment Length. Y: Normalized Kernel Raster Value ............................................................................................................. 39 14 Delta-Beta Residual Analysis for Outlier Detection and Removal (Node Miami 1). The Right-Hand Side Figure Is The Expanded Version of The Box on Left-Hand Side Figure Shown After Outlier Handling ............................................................................................. 40 15 A Schematic Illustration of Aggregation Approach ............................................................ 48 vii 16 (left) A Sample Frequency Table for Observation vs. Prediction Generated by Algorithm, (right) ROC Curve for Crash Frequency Model for Node Miami1-All Age Groups .......... 51 17 Receiver Operating Characteristic Plots for Crash Severity Prediction by Logit for Miami- All Ages (a), Miami-Aging Drivers (b), Jacksonville-All Ages (c) and Jacksonville-Aging Drivers (d).