DIPLOMARBEIT Titel der Diplomarbeit THE ARGENTINE POLITICS OF WELFARE STATE ADAPTATION FAILURE Labour Market Transformation and Social Policy after Import Substitution Industrialisation, 1976 – 2010 Verfasser Carl Friedrich Bossert angestrebter akademischer Grad Magister der Philosophie (Mag. Phil.) Wien, im März 2011 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 300 Studienrichtung lt. Studienblatt: Politikwissenschaft Betreuer: Univ. Prof. Dr. Karl Ucakar CONTENTS Figures...........................................................................................................................................4 Tables.............................................................................................................................................6 Glossary.........................................................................................................................................7 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................10 2 Labour market transformation and welfare state reform: the Argentinean case 1975 – 2010...23 2.1 The deterioration of the Argentinean labour market conditions and the expansion of social needs after 1975........................................................................................................................23 2.2 Welfare state reform after 1975: Ignoring social change?.................................................54 2.3 Welfare state regime and welfare state adaptation in Argentina: an institutionalist perspective..............................................................................................................................116 3 Politics and political economy of welfare state adaptation failure..........................................122 3.1 Relevant theories of social policy research and the Argentinean case.............................123 3.2 Historical legacy and the political economy of the Argentinean welfare state ...............153 3.3 The distribution of power resources in the politics of welfare state adaptation failure...173 3.4 Democracy, power and welfare state adaptation failure in Argentina.............................223 3.5 The role of ideology: neoliberalism and welfare state adaptation failure........................241 4 Conclusions..............................................................................................................................263 Bibliography..............................................................................................................................276 Annexe.......................................................................................................................................314 Acknowledgements...............................................................................................................314 Abstract.................................................................................................................................316 Kurzbeschreibung.................................................................................................................318 Curriculum vitae...................................................................................................................320 Lebenslauf.............................................................................................................................324 3 FIGURES Figure 1: Percentage of the population living in a poor household...............................................13 Figure 2: Changes in poverty and increases in unemployment in eight European countries and Argentina: late 1970s to early 1990s.............................................................................................15 Figure 3: GDP per capita in Pesos of 1993, between 1975 and 2009............................................25 Figure 4: GDP per capita growth in % points between 1976 and 2009.........................................26 Figure 5: Unemployment and involuntary underemployment between 1974 and 2009................31 Figure 6: Economically active population and employment between 1974 and 2009..................32 Figure 7: Average unemployment rates in four periods after 1975...............................................35 Figure 8: Unregistered salaried employment as percentage of total salaried employment...........37 Figure 9: Informal working population as a share of total working population............................38 Figure 10: Average duration of unemployment in months............................................................42 Figure 11: Evolution of the average real wage (1975 = 100)........................................................44 Figure 12: Income differences between formal and informal employment...................................46 Figure 13: Income inequality in Argentina between 1974 and 2009, Gini-Coefficient (household per capita income)..........................................................................................................................48 Figure 14: Evolution of incomes as a share of the GDP between1974 and 2009, in deciles........49 Figure 15: Female economically active population as a share of total economically active population between 1980 and 2010...............................................................................................51 Figure 16: Gender and income. Average monthly labour income relation female/male...............51 Figure 17: Evolution of the Argentinean age-structure, 1975 - 2010............................................53 Figure 18: Evolution of the old-age dependency ratio since 1975................................................54 Figure 19: Per capita social expenditure in Pesos at constant prices of 2001...............................56 Figure 20: Social expenditure as % of the GDP............................................................................57 Figure 21: Social insurance expenditure per capita vs. universal and means tested expenditure per capita, in Pesos at constant prices of 2001..............................................................................59 Figure 22: Composition of gross national tax revenue between 1980 and 2009...........................62 Figure 23: Pension expenditure as % of the GDP.........................................................................64 Figure 24: Evolution of pension coverage among the elderly(Number of Benefits / Number of men 65+ and women 60+).............................................................................................................66 Figure 25: Evolution of average and minimum pension benefits, in Pesos of 1997.....................67 Figure 26: Financial sources of the Argentinean pension system.................................................69 4 Figure 27: Pension system coverage of the working population by income quintiles..................74 Figure 28: Evolution of health expenditure as a percentage of the GDP......................................82 Figure 29: Social health insurance expenditure vs. public health sector expenditure, as percentage of the GDP...................................................................................................................85 Figure 30: Health insurance coverage, in percent of the population.............................................86 Figure 31: Public health sector expenditure per covered person vs. social health insurance expenditure per covered person, in 2001 Pesos.............................................................................89 Figure 32: Evolution of the expenditure on family allowances as a percentage of the GDP........95 Figure 33: Expenditure on social assistance, employment programmes and unemployment insurance as percentage of the GDP............................................................................................101 Figure 34: Number of unemployment insurance and social assistance beneficiaries..................106 Figure 35: The benefits of social assistance programmes as % of the poverty line*, for a family of two parents(30, 30) and three children(5, 3, 1).......................................................................107 Figure 36: The benefits of social assistance programmes as % of the extreme poverty line*, for a family of two parents(30, 30) and three children(5, 3, 1)............................................................108 Figure 37: Employer and worker social insurance contributions as percentage of the wage, at the end of each period........................................................................................................................131 Figure 38: Exports and imports of goods and services as percentage of the GDP......................135 Figure 39: Exports and imports of goods and services as percentage of the GDP, in four periods .....................................................................................................................................................135 Figure 40: Industrial production(valued added) as percentage of the GDP, at the end of each period...........................................................................................................................................137 Figure 41: Employer contributions to social health insurances vs. employer contributions to the remaining social insurances.........................................................................................................182 Figure 42: Evolution of the average real wage............................................................................186