Fall 08 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 2 By: Susan Toughlouian, Giovanni Marsico, Roy Bhandari & Amit Bhandari NOTICE: This Book is licensed to the individual reader only. Duplication or distribution via e-mail, disc, network, printout or other means to a person other than the original purchaser is a violation of international copyright law. © Copyright 2012, Susan Toughlouian, Giovanni Marsico, Roy Bhandari and Amit Bhandari, Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by any means (including electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the publisher. Published by: Toronto Condo Boutique Talk Condo Toronto, Ontario Toronto, Ontario http://www.torontocondoboutique.com http://www.talkcondo.com © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION 1 – THE 6 TORONTO CONDO BUBBLE MYTHS Myth #1 – Too Much Supply Myth #2 – Units Are Too Small Myth #3 – Too Much Foreign Investment Myth #4 – Too Many Investors Myth #5 – Prices Too High Myth #6 – You Can’t Make Money on Rentals How To Spot a Toronto Condo Bubble SECTION 2 – 2012 AT A GLANCE 2012 Market Projections Sneak Peak at 2012 Condo Launches SECTION 3 – CONDOMATCH™ Warning: How Do You Choose A Condo Investment That Is Right For You? The CondoMatch Mastermind SECTION 4 - APPENDIX About This Report Meet The Team The Toronto Condo Boutique & Talk Condo © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 4 SECTION 1 – THE 6 TORONTO CONDO BUBBLE MYTHS Everywhere you look, the media in Canada are selling millions of copies of their publications using words such as “Bubble” and “Crash”. (Pictured to the left is the cover of the January 2012 edition of Canadian Business magazine.) After all, the fear of bad news is the best motivator to have the public pull out their wallets. Will CAnAdA crAsh? Will housing prices fall ten or twenty percent like the doomsday analysts predict? Since Real Estate is local, and not national, we are going to address the Toronto market – specifically condos. While other cities or communities in Canada may have price dips, increases, or flatline, we project the Toronto Condo market to continue to rise. As we have the privilege of communicating with thousands of investors each year, we find ourselves in the same conversations with many people. Over the next few pages we are going to address the six most common misconceptions we hear (not only from investors but from the media as well), and provide actual market data and facts for each ‘myth’. © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 5 MYTH #1 – TOO MUCH SUPPLY Drive around the downtown Toronto area for 20 minutes and you can’t help but notice all the cranes. News reports boast the fact that 2011 had the highest number of new condo sales in history - 28, 466 to be exact. With almost 30,000 new sales, and over 100 cranes, it is easy to see why people believe there is an oversupply of units – and economically speaking, big supply means downward pressure on prices. FACT: WE HAVE A HOUSING SHORTAGE!! According to Statistics Canada, there are roughly 260,000 to 280,000 new people to Canada each year – NET migration (foreign and domestic immigrants minus emigrants). These new people are not moving to rural Saskatchewan and Manitoba – they’re moving to the big cities such as Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. In fact, Toronto receives 100,000 to 150,000 each year. We have for the past 10 years, and according to Stats Canada, we can expect the same for the next 10-20 years. To house these new people, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) requires roughly 40,000 new homes each year, or 1 home per 2.5 people. Looking back to the mid 1970’s, there were 40,000 new home sales (low rise), and 1000 condo sales (4 condo projects). Most of the new home sales occurred in the suburbs, with condo projects downtown. © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 6 Since then, on average, each and every year, the number of low rise has declined, and the number of highrise has increased, averaging out in the 40,000 total range. This ’40,000’ number has remained relatively constant since the 1970’s. In 2005, the province instituted the ‘Places To Grow’ policy, which froze 1,600,000 acres of land (called the ‘Greenbelt’) for development, in an effort to protect the land, and to increase intensification. (Pictured above – the ‘Greenbelt’) © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 7 This means developers were forced to build low rise OUTSIDE the greenbelt (North of Newmarket, etc.) or build highrise INSIDE the greenbelt (in the GTA). The result is that we are at the lowest inventory levels for new low rise homes in history! 40 MINUTES OR ITS FREE? THE ISSUE IS DELIVERY… With dwindling low rise inventory, it seems that record high new condo sales can fill the gap to properly meet demand from immigration. The problem, however, is DELIVERY. For pre-construction condos, the average time between the start of sales to occupancy and completion of the units is typically 4-5 years. So 28,000 condo sales in 2011 means that we won’t see these units completed until 2015, 2016, or even 2017 depending on delays. For the past 10 years, the average number of condos ‘delivered’ (i.e. – completed units) each year is roughly 13,000 - 15,000. 15,000 seems to be the capacity for the industry. With low rise numbers continuing to drop, and immigration constant, we’re practically in a housing shortage! This seems to be one of the biggest factors for the steady increase of price appreciation in the GTA. There is a strong demand for housing, which will continue for many years to come. © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 8 MYTH #2 – UNITS ARE TOO SMALL This myth is actually coupled with another two of our favourites – “condo developers are greedy”, and “developers are designing units for investors”. After all, if they design the units smaller, they can produce more of them! Moving back in time 20 years, a one-bedroom unit could be 800 to 1000 square feet. Now, we’re seeing one-bedroom units in the 400- 500 square foot range. Is this really developer greed? FACT: SMALLER UNITS ARE MORE EFFICIENT AND AFFORDABLE Due to skyrocketing land prices, and increasing prices for construction materials and labour, developers are left with 2 choices: 1) Keep unit SIZES constant, forcing unit prices HIGHER (mAking suites too expensive And out of reach for most buyers) 2) Keep unit PRICES constant, forcing unit sizes SMALLER Developers of luxury condos typically go with choice number 1, while most developers opt for choice #2, forcing them to innovate and create more efficient spaces. Innovations in design have actually come a long way, which is highly beneficial for condo buyers since you end up paying for space. © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 9 While the price per square foot constantly increases, end prices of the units have been pretty constant to keep them affordable (especially for first time buyers). THE ‘SHIFT’ There is also a demographic shift happening, resulting in a demand for smaller unit sizes – especially in the downtown area. More people in the GTA are getting married later in life, and having children later in life. Many Ontarians are moving from the suburbs BACK to the downtown core. The single person, or double person household is much more common than the typical ‘nuclear family’. There is also a shift in transportation – with more people moving to the GTA, the roads are so congested that more people prefer to live close to work relying on public transportation. © Copyright 2012 • Toronto Condo Boutique & TalkCondo.com. All rights reserved. Reproduction, in whole or in part, without written permission is prohibited and a violation of International copyright law. 2012: A CONDO ODYSSEY | 10 MYTH #3 – TOO MUCH FOREIGN INVESTMENT We were shocked recently, to read a newspaper article that mentioned foreign investment being “50/50”. The assumption is that 50% of the buyers of Toronto condos live in other countries! FACT – 98% OF NEW CONDO BUYERS HAVE AN ONTARIO DRIVER’S LICENSE AND SOCIAL INSURANCE NUMBER Of the 28,000 new condos sold in 2011, our team sold close to 1% of them. Based on our sales, 98% of our buyers were ‘local’ with 2% coming from other countries. It is quite easy for us to track due to the fact that international investors have different requirements than those in the country (i.e.