Water Futures and Solution - Fast Track Initiative (Final Report) Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Fischer, G., Kahil, T., Scherzer, A., Tramberend, S., Nava, L.F., Wada, Y., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Magnuszewski, P., Cosgrove, B. and Wiberg, D. IIASA Working Paper WP 16-006 Approved by: Bill Cosgrove, Acting Program Director Water 2016 Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Fischer, G., Kahil, T., Scherzer, A., Tramberend, S., Nava, L.F., Wada, Y., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Magnuszewski, P., Cosgrove, B. and Wiberg, D. (2016) Water Futures and Solution - Fast Track Initiative (Final Report). IIASA Working Paper. WP 16-006 Copyright © 2016 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13008/ Working Papers on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage. All copies must bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. For other purposes, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, permission must be sought by contacting [email protected] International Institute for Tel: +43 2236 807 342 Applied Systems Analysis Fax: +43 2236 71313 Schlossplatz 1 E-mail: [email protected] A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Working Paper WP-16-006 Water Futures and Solution Fast Track Initiative – Final Report ADA Project Number 2725-00/2014 Peter Burek ([email protected]) Yusuke Satoh ([email protected]) Günther Fischer ([email protected]) Mohammed Taher Kahil ([email protected]) Angelika Scherzer ([email protected]) Sylvia Tramberend ([email protected]) Luzma Fabiola Nava ([email protected]) Yoshihide Wada ([email protected]) Stephanie Eisner Martina Flörke Naota Hanasaki Piotr Magnuszewski ([email protected]) Bill Cosgrove ([email protected]) David Wiberg ([email protected]) Working Papers on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. 1 ZVR 524808900 Final REPORT Water Futures and Solution Fast Track Initiative ADA Project Number 2725-00/2014 Peter BUREK, Yusuke SATOH, Günther FISCHER, Taher KAHIL, Luzma NAVA JIMENEZ, Angelika SCHERZER, Sylvia TRAMBEREND, Yoshihide WADA, Stefanie EISNER, Martina FLÖRKE, Naota HANASAKI, Piotr MAGNUSZIEWSKI, William COSGROVE and David WIBERG IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, March 2016 Contents Suar V Itrodutio ................................................................................................................................ . Pupose of this epot ........................................................................................................................... . WFa“ seaio appoah ....................................................................................................................... . ‘egioal ategoies used i this aalsis .............................................................................................. The Iportae of a Neus Approah ........................................................................................... Future searios - WFaS Futures Aalsis Approah ...................................................................... . Buildig ate seaios ....................................................................................................................... . Wate eteded “haed “oio-Eooi Pathas ““Ps ................................................................... . Hdo-eooi lassifiatio .............................................................................................................. . “ua of seaio assuptios fo WFa“ fast-tak .................................................................. . Multi-odel assesset ..................................................................................................................... . Food ad agiultue odellig faeok........................................................................................ .. The odelig faeok ......................................................................................................... .. ““P seaio ipleetatio .................................................................................................. . Uetait of ate suppl ad dead .......................................................................................... Gloal ‘esults ........................................................................................................................... . “oio Eoois .......................................................................................................................... .. Populatio ................................................................................................................................ .. Eooi goth ad ioe .................................................................................................. . Eeg sste deelopet ad seaios ........................................................................................ .. Eeg dead hage ad ipliatios o ate use .......................................................... .. Cliate hage ipats o the eeg seto ......................................................................... . Food ad agiultue deelopet ..................................................................................................... .. Food dead ........................................................................................................................... .. People at isk of huge ........................................................................................................... .. Eolutio of ultiated lad ..................................................................................................... .. Coludig eaks o Food ad agiultue deelopet .................................................... . Wate “uppl .......................................................................................................................... .. Aailale sufae ate ............................................................................................................ .. Aailale sufae ate pe apita ........................................................................................... .. Goudate ............................................................................................................................ .. Tasouda depede of ate esoues ...................................................................... . Wate dead .......................................................................................................................... .. Total ate dead ................................................................................................................. .. Wate dead hage seto ............................................................................................. . Wate seuit .......................................................................................................................... .. Wate sait - Ialae etee suppl ad dead ....................................................... .. Potetial populatio eposed to futue seee ate sait ................................................ . Hdo-eooi lassifiatio ............................................................................................................ Outlook - uoerig ater solutios ......................................................................................... . Poli esposes fo opig ith goig ate sait.................................................................... . Diffeet pathas fo aagig ate sait ................................................................................ Colusio ............................................................................................................................... ‘eferee ............................................................................................................................... I Appedi I Appedi A: ““P “tolies .......................................................................................................................... I Appedi B-: WFa“ ate stolies ad ipliatios fo idustial ate use ...................................... III Appedi B-: WFa“ ate stolies ad ipliatios fo doesti ate use........................................V Appedi B-: WFa“ ate stolies ad ipliatios fo agiultual ate use ...................................VI Appedi C: Hdo Eooi lassifiatio suegios ad outies ...............................................VIII Appedi D: Additioal esults fo all seaios ....................................................................................... XII Figure list Figure 1-1: Regional categories .............................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 3-1: The shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) representing different combinations of challenges to climate mitigation and adaptation. .................................................................................... 5 Figure 3-2: Conceptual framework for allocation of hydro-economic classification to four