National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Adapting To Climate Change in Coastal Parks Estimating the Exposure of Park Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/GRD/NRR—2015/961 ON THIS PAGE Fire Island Lighthouse, Fire Island National Seashore Photograph by: Katie McDowell Peek, Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines ON THE COVER Fort Wadsworth, Gateway National Recreation Area Photograph by: Katie McDowell Peek, Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines Adapting To Climate Change in Coastal Parks Estimating the Exposure of Park Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/GRD/NRR—2015/961 1 1 2 3 Katie McDowell Peek , Robert S. Young , Rebecca L. Beavers , Cat Hawkins Hoffman , Brian T. Diethorn4, and Shawn Norton5 1Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines Western Carolina University Cullowhee, NC 28734 2Geologic Resources Division National Park Service Lakewood, Colorado 80235 3 Climate Change Response Program National Park Service Fort Collins, Colorado 80525 4 Park Facilities Management Division & Resource Information Services Division National Park Service Lakewood, Colorado 80235 5Sustainable Operations and Climate Change National Park Service Washington, DC 20005 May 2015 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. 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Data in this report were collected and analyzed using methods based on established, peer-reviewed protocols and were analyzed and interpreted within the guidelines of the protocols. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available in digital format from the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/nrpm/). To receive this report in a format optimized for screen readers, please email [email protected]. Please cite this publication as: Peek, K. M., R. S. Young, R. L. Beavers, C. H. Hoffman, B. T. Diethorn, and S. Norton. 2015. Adapting to climate change in coastal national parks: Estimating the exposure of park assets to 1 m of sea-level rise. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/GRD/NRR—2015/961. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 999/128536, May 2015 ii Contents Page Figures................................................................................................................................................... iv Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... v Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ vi Glossary ..............................................................................................................................................viii Acknowledgments ...............................................................................................................................viii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. ix Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Broad Categorization of Extremely Low Elevation Units.............................................................. 3 “First-Cut” of Assets in High Elevation Units ............................................................................... 5 Park Visits ...................................................................................................................................... 6 GIS Analysis of Assets ................................................................................................................... 7 Final WCU Categorization of Assets: High or Limited Exposure to SLR ..................................... 7 Park Review.................................................................................................................................... 7 FMSS Limitations and Asset Exclusions ....................................................................................... 8 Results & Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 12 Overview & Exposure Breakdown ............................................................................................... 12 Low Exposure Group .............................................................................................................. 12 Intermediate Exposure Group .................................................................................................. 13 High Exposure Group .............................................................................................................. 13 Service-Wide Exposure & Risk .................................................................................................... 15 FMSS, NPS Resources and Adaptation ........................................................................................ 17 Case Study: Hurricane Sandy and GATE ............................................................................................ 19 Hurricane Sandy Lessons ............................................................................................................. 20 Conclusions and Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 22 iii Figures Page Figure 1. Location of all 40 NPS units analyzed as part of the WCU/NPS sea-level rise study. ...................................................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Location of FMSS location hierarchy areas and park boundary for OLYM. ........................ 6 Figure 3. PAIS exposure analysis example. A) LiDAR DEM of a portion of PAIS and asset locations. B) Color coded assets for the same area based on elevations obtained from the LiDAR DEM. .......................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4. CUIS map with LiDAR DEM and asset locations .............................................................. 12 Figure 5. Comparison map of the results from the Sandy Hook portion of GATE, including the FEMA flood zone analysis ............................................................................................. 21 iv Tables Page Table 1. NPS unit codes and regions for the 40 coastal parks analyzed, with date visited. .................. 4 Table 2. Example of FMSS location hierarchy report for Olympic National Park ............................... 5 Table 3. General summary of data types available for each unit. ....................................................... 10 Table 4. Primary data types and common sources used in the SLR exposure analysis. ..................... 11 Table 5. Exposure results for all 40 coastal NPS units. ...................................................................... 14 Table 6. National and regional SLR exposure data results. ................................................................ 15 Table 7. High exposure results listed by asset type ............................................................................. 16 Table 8. Top five high exposure asset types based on % of total CRV, with fortifications removed from analysis. ........................................................................................................................ 16 Table 9. Results from FEMA flood zone analysis within