The Temporary Foreign Worker Program in Alberta: Exploring the Key Determinants of Public Opinion by Chad Doerksen A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Sociology University of Alberta © Chad Doerksen, 2015 ABSTRACT This research explores public opinion regarding the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program in Canada. It is situated within an important moment in the program’s history, in a province with particularly widespread reliance on it. Utilizing the 2013 Alberta Survey – a province-wide telephone survey – I explore Albertans’ opinions regarding the TFW program. This analysis is framed with an overview of the expansion of the TFW program over the past several decades, a description of the extensive media coverage given to several prominent examples of misuse of the program in 2013, and the resulting changes to the program. Compared to results from prior nation-wide surveys, the 2013 findings demonstrate that the majority of Albertans believe the TFW program is necessary. Furthermore, the vast majority of Albertans believe TFWs should have the same workplace rights as Canadians, and a majority believe that TFWs should be able to access permanent residency. These findings highlight points where TFW program policy was disconnected from public opinion, particularly with regard to allowing differential pay and permanent residency rights of TFWs. In addition, the 2013 survey findings illustrate some similarities with findings from the broader literature regarding the key determinants of attitudes towards immigration. In sum, this research makes a significant contribution to the limited literature exploring public opinion regarding the TFW program in Canada. It provides an in-depth analysis of Albertans’ opinions regarding the TFW program ii and the key factors that shape these opinions, and also insights into the connection between public opinion and public policy. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project would not have been possible without the support of many people. First, I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Harvey Krahn. Your consistent encouragement and thoughtful guidance throughout the project was invaluable. Thank you for always being able to calm my apprehensions and refocus my efforts. I would also like to thank Dr. Sara Dorow for your support throughout my MA program. It was a pleasure to have you as a teacher, RA supervisor, and thesis committee member. Thank you to my third examiner Dr. Tracey Derwing for your interest in my project, and your thoughtful questions and suggestions. Thank you to Dr. Karen Hughes, Dr. Bob Barnetson, and Jason Foster for your willingness to discuss issues around the TFW program and my project. Thank you to my wife Emilie for your endless love and encouragement. For always brightening the low days, and celebrating the good days. Thank you to all of my parents and siblings, for your loving support and good humour throughout. To my colleagues and office mate(s) that made the day-to-day graduate life enjoyable. To our friends near and far, who brightened our lives in countless ways. I would also like to thank the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Society of Edmonton Demographers, the Government of Alberta, the Department of Sociology, the Population Research Laboratory, and the Faculty of Graduate Studies at the University of Alberta for their generous financial support. iv For Emilie and Austin v Table of Contents Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 Public Opinion and Public Policy: Exploring the Link 3 Research Questions and Hypotheses 4 Thesis Organization 7 Chapter 2 – Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program: History and Context 9 Immigration in Canada 11 A Brief History of the TFW Program 14 Structure of the TFW Program 15 Growth of the Program 18 Restricted Access to Permanent Residency 21 Temporary Foreign Workers in Alberta 23 TFW Program: In the Public Eye 30 Tracking Public Response 34 Public Policy Developed in Response 42 Conclusion 45 Chapter 3 – Conceptual Framework for Survey Analysis 48 Public Opinion Surveys regarding the TFW Program 48 Limitations of Existing Public Opinion Surveys 53 Previous Research on Attitudes towards Immigration 56 Theoretical Perspectives 57 Limitations of the “Attitudes towards Immigration” Literature 62 The Alberta Context 64 Economy 64 Migration 65 Politics 66 Age, Gender, and Education 67 Other Factors 67 Attitudes towards the TFW Program 68 Preliminary Hypotheses 69 Chapter 4 – Method, Sample Design, and Measurement 72 Calculation of Weights 73 Measurement 75 Dependent Variables 76 Independent Variables 80 Chapter 5 – Descriptive Findings 83 2013 Alberta Survey: At a Glance 83 Overview of Findings 85 Knowledge of the Program 85 vi Necessity of the TFW Program 86 Perceptions of Racial Background of TFWs 97 Workplace Rights for TFWs 100 Permanent residency rights for TFWs 106 Discussion and Conclusion 108 Chapter 6 – Multiple Regression Analyses and Discussion 111 Analysis Strategy 111 Predictors of the Necessity Index 113 Predictors of the Workplace Rights Index 118 Discussion 122 Hypothesis Testing 124 Self-Interest 124 Educational Attainment 126 Ideological Orientation 127 Secondary Hypotheses 128 Conclusion 130 Chapter 7 – Conclusions 132 Summary of Findings 132 Research Contributions 136 Limitations of Research 136 Directions for Future Research 140 Policy Implications 141 References 143 Appendix 150 vii List of Figures Figure 2.1 Immigration to Canada by entrance category 13 Figure 2.2 Permanent resident entrants compared with TFW entrants and TFWs present in Canada on December 1st of each year 19 Figure 2.3 TFWs present in Canada by type of LMO issued 20 Figure 2.4 Total number of TFWs transitioning to permanent residency 23 Figure 2.5 Proportion of TFWs transitioning to permanent residency in 2013 by occupational category 23 Figure 2.6 Proportion of TFWs present by province 24 Figure 2.7 TFWs present as percentage of provincial population 24 Figure 2.8 Permanent resident entrants compared with temporary foreign worker entrants and TFWs present in Alberta 26 Figure 2.9 LMOs issued in Alberta, categorized by the national occupational codes for skill level 28 Figure 2.10 LMOs in Alberta by Selected Industry Sector 28 Figure 2.11 Google search trends in Canada 36 Figure 2.12 Google search trends by province and city in Canada 37 Figure 2.13 Twitter keywords search 39 Figure 5.1 Summary of Likert-scale questions 84 Figure 5.2 Question 1 – Overview 85 Figure 5.3 Question 2 – PRL and EKOS compared 86 Figure 5.4 Question 2 – Closer look – Responses by region 89 Figure 5.5 Question 2 – Closer look – Responses by immigrant status 90 Figure 5.6 Question 2 – Closer look – Responses by education 90 Figure 5.7 Question 3 – Overview 91 Figure 5.8 Question 4 – Overview 93 Figure 5.9 Question 4 – Closer look – Responses by financial anxiety 94 Figure 5.10 Question 5 – Overview 95 Figure 5.11 Question 5 – Closer look – Responses by home owner & financial anxiety 97 Figure 5.12 Question 5 – Closer look – Responses by education 97 Figure 5.13 Question 6 – Overview 98 Figure 5.14 Question 6 – Closer look – Responses by age 99 Figure 5.15 Question 6 – Closer look – Responses by immigrant status 99 Figure 5.16 Question 7 – Overview 100 Figure 5.17 Question 7 – Closer look – Responses by age 101 Figure 5.18 Question 7 – Closer look – Responses by household income 102 Figure 5.19 Question 7 – Closer look – Responses by immigrant status & education 103 Figure 5.20 Question 8 – Overview 103 Figure 5.21 Question 9 – Overview 104 Figure 5.22 Question 9 – Closer look – Responses by gender 105 Figure 5.23 Question 10 – Overview 106 Figure 5.24 Question 10 – Closer look – Responses by immigrant status 108 viii List of Tables Table 2.1 Temporary foreign workers present in 2003 and 2012, and overall program growth by top four receiving provinces 25 Table 2.2 Temporary foreign workers present as percentage of provincial and national employed, unemployed, and total populations 27 Table 2.3 Timeline of TFW related news and policy changes 40 Table 3.1 Net migration by province 66 Table 4.1 Gender and respondent by region 72 Table 4.2 Survey data compared to census data on selected demographic characteristics 73 Table 4.3 Calculation of survey weights 74 Table 4.4 Valid and missing responses 82 Table 5.1 Question 2 - Statistically significant variables 88 Table 5.2 Question 3 - Statistically significant variables 92 Table 5.3 Question 4 - Statistically significant variables 93 Table 5.4 Question 5 - Statistically significant variables 96 Table 5.5 Question 6 - Statistically significant variables 98 Table 5.6 Question 7 - Statistically significant variables 101 Table 5.7 Question 9 - Statistically significant variables 105 Table 5.8 Question 10 - Statistically significant variables 107 Table 5.9 Summary of statistical significance 110 Table 6.1 Dependent Variable: Necessity Index 115 Table 6.2 Dependent Variable: Rights Index 120 ix Chapter 1 – Introduction For most of its history, the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program in Canada was a relatively obscure migrant labour program available to employers in a select few occupational sectors. Following substantial policy changes in 2002, it quickly became a country-wide program available to any employer able to adequately demonstrate a problem in filling job openings with Canadians. As a result, the program experienced explosive growth, more than tripling in size from 2002 to 2012 (see CIC, 2012). Although the entire program ballooned over this time, much of the growth came from an expanded use of the program across ‘lower-skilled’ occupations that were increasingly reliant on migrants from the Global South. Widespread adoption of the TFW program was particularly noticeable in the province of Alberta. Coinciding with a period of sustained economic growth throughout much of the 2000s, the conditions were perfect for widespread use of the TFW program.