PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2015 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexei Arbatov and Sergei Oznobishchev Editorial Assistant Tatiana Anichkina Moscow IMEMO 2016 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus95 Rus95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2015 / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Sergei Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2016. – 201 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0471-3 DOI: 10.20542/978-5-9535-0471-3 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2015 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving US-Russian cooperation on Syria, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran, North Korean nuclear and missile programme, NATO-Russian relations, peacekeeping operations in Ukraine. This year’s edition also highlights issues of US military responses to international crises, military threats in the Arctic, Russia’s defence budget, international cooperation on information security, relations between Russia and CIS/CSTO countries, and activities of the Islamic State. To view IMEMO publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0471-3 ИМЭМО РАН, 2016 CONTENTS PREFACE............................................................................................ 7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ...................................................................................... 9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. RUSSIAN-AMERICAN PARTNERSHIP ON SYRIA: COOPERATION IN THE MIDST OF CONFRONTATION .......... 13 Dmitri Trenin US and Russian policies on Syria in 2011-2015: key aspects ........... 14 Russian military operation in Syria: objectives and outcomes.......... 21 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 25 2. THE IRAN DEAL AND THE PROSPECTS OF STRENGTHENING OF THE NPT ............................................ 28 Alexei Arbatov Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ................................................. 28 The balance of interests of the participants ....................................... 35 Prospects of nuclear non-proliferation .............................................. 38 3. NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND MISSILE AMBITIONS .................................................................... 42 Victor Yesin North Korea’s potential of developing and producing nuclear weapons ................................................................................ 43 North Korea’s missile capabilities..................................................... 48 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 54 4. RUSSIA AND NATO: FROM THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS TO THE RENEWED INTERACTION............................................. 57 Sergei OZNOBISHCHEV Evolution of the NATO policy after the Cold War ........................... 57 Russia and NATO policies in the context of the Ukrainian crisis..... 60 Prospects for normalization of the relations ...................................... 65 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 5. PEACEKEEPING ISSUES AND THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE .................................................................................... 72 Alexander Nikitin Possible use of peace operations mechanisms in the context of the crisis in Ukraine ...................................................................... 73 International law and the applicability of peace operation mechanisms in Ukraine ..................................................................... 76 OSCE Special Monitoring Mission ................................................... 80 Ukraine’s formal appeal to the UN and EU on the conduct of peace operation.............................................................................. 82 Revision of the UN peacekeeping principles and its impact on the discussion of applicability of the peacekeeping principles in Ukraine ......................................................................... 84 Conclusions and prospects ................................................................ 90 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 6. US MILITARY RESPONSES TO INTERNATIONAL CRISES IN THE POST-CRIMEA WORLD ................................................... 95 Natalia Bubnova The Ukraine conflict and US-Russian confrontation ........................ 96 Syria in flames and Washington’s policy ........................................ 103 US response to the Russian-Turkish crisis ...................................... 113 7. MILITARY THREATS ASSESSMENTS IN THE ARCTIC .... 117 Andrei Zagorski Before 2014 ..................................................................................... 117 Against the background of the Ukraine crisis ................................. 120 Prospects .......................................................................................... 124 8. 2016 RUSSIAN DEFENCE BUDGET: KEY PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ...................................................... 127 Lyudmila Pankova Issues and problems of defence budgeting and GPV-2020 implementation ................................................................................ 128 Finding optimal modernization solutions for the Russian armed forces .................................................................................... 135 Conclusions ..................................................................................... 142 CONTENTS 5 9. PROSPECTS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON INFORMATION SECURITY .................................................. 146 Natalia Romashkina International information security at the UN level .......................... 147 Russia and IIS .................................................................................. 155 Issues of international cooperation on information security ........... 158 10. RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CIS/CSTO COUNTRIES: KEY ASPECTS IN 2015 ........................................ 161 Vadim Vladimirov Terrorist threats and countermeasures ............................................. 162 CSTO activities ............................................................................... 166 Bilateral Russia-CIS relations ......................................................... 169 11. THE ISLAMIC STATE AND OTHER RADICAL ISLAMIST ORGANIZATIONS: MAIN TRENDS ........................................... 174 Stanislav Ivanov PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 12. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY–DECEMBER 2015) ................................................... 187 Sergei Tselitski Legislative acts ................................................................................ 187 Normative acts ................................................................................. 190 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ................................................... 199 PREFACE The Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations presents the 16th edition of Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security – its Special Supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook traditionally compiled by the Institute’s leading experts. The chapters of this volume focus on cooperative trends in strengthening regional and international security. The trends indicate that first attempts have been made at improving international relations in the aftermath of the most devastating Ukrainian crisis. So far the results of such cooperation have been mixed. The US-Russian collaboration on Syria is one of the examples discussed in the Supplement. It vividly illustrates the complexity of the current situation in which the great powers actively compete and at the same time have to cooperate in areas where their interests partly converge. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed on July 14, 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China), and the European Union came as a notable diplomatic compromise reflecting the parties’ political interests in a form of technical requirements. This agreement was intended to settle the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme that in the previous years had reached a critical level that could prompt a military solution. The Supplement provides an in-depth analysis of both the document itself and issues related to its implementation today and in the future. Unlike this crisis in which long-lasting and steady efforts of the international community finally produced an ambitious deal, the problem of the North Korean nuclear and missile potential has recently become even more complicated. The Supplement provides expert assessments of DPRK’s capability to develop and produce nuclear weapons and delivery systems, as well as possible ways to overcome the deadlock in the six-party talks on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula since 2009. Decades long NATO expansion to the east was an important factor contributing to the sharp deterioration of relations between Russia and the West. Therefore the analysis of the Alliance’s 8 PREFACE evolving policy and increasing military activity appears to be very relevant and timely. Practical suggestions aimed at reducing tension in the NATO-Russia relations provided in the volume