This thesis has been submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for a postgraduate degree (e.g. PhD, MPhil, DClinPsychol) at the University of Edinburgh. Please note the following terms and conditions of use: This work is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, which are retained by the thesis author, unless otherwise stated. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the author. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the author. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given. Electoral Governance: Understanding the Democratic Quality of Elections in Nigeria Ibrahim Sani PhD Politics The University of Edinburgh 2015 Declaration I declare that except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is entirely my own work, and that no part of it has been submitted for any other degree or professional qualification. ……………………….. Ibrahim Sani (s1144926) ii Asiya Usman Mani iii Table of Contents Declaration ................................................................................................................................ ii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................ vii Tables .......................................................................................................................... vii Figures ........................................................................................................................ vii List of Acronyms...................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xi Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 The Problem ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Why Democratic Quality of Elections? ................................................................... 7 1.3 Why Nigeria? .......................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Measuring the Democratic Quality of Elections ................................................... 11 1.5 Purposes, Questions and Objectives ..................................................................... 20 1.6 The Structure of the Thesis .................................................................................... 22 Chapter 2 The Electoral Terrain .............................................................................................. 26 2.1 The Demography ................................................................................................... 27 2.2 The Political Context ............................................................................................. 32 2.3 The Institutional Setting ........................................................................................ 37 2.4 Trajectories of Electoral Authorities in Nigeria ................................................... 45 2.5 The 2007 and 2011 Elections ‘Dominant-power politics syndrome’ .................... 47 2.6 Conclusion............................................................................................................. 53 Chapter 3 Democratic Quality of Elections: Concept, Measurement & Methodology ............ 55 3.1 Democratic Quality ............................................................................................... 55 3.2 Case Selection ....................................................................................................... 57 iv 3.3 The Dependent Variable: Operationalizing Democratic Elections ...................... 61 3.4 Explaining Democratic Quality of Elections: The Electoral Governance ............ 78 3.5 Data Collection, Analysis, Measurement Validity ................................................ 92 3.6 Ethics and Limitations......................................................................................... 107 3.7 Conclusion........................................................................................................... 111 Chapter 4 Election Integrity: Does the Autonomy of Electoral Commissions Matter?.......... 113 4.1 Autonomy of the Electoral Commission: The 2007 Elections ............................. 114 4.2 Autonomy of the Electoral Commission: The 2011 Elections ............................. 131 4.3 Conclusion........................................................................................................... 143 Chapter 5 Parts of a Whole: Counting the Electoral Cycle............................................... 147 5.1 Electoral Cycles: The 2007 Elections ................................................................. 148 5.2 Electoral Cycles: The 2011 Elections ................................................................. 168 5.3 Conclusion........................................................................................................... 184 Chapter 6 Electoral Dispute Resolution: ‘The Privilege of the Underprivileged’ ............ 189 6.1 Electoral dispute mechanisms: 2007 elections ................................................... 190 6.2 Electoral dispute mechanisms: The 2011 elections ............................................ 202 6.3 Conclusion........................................................................................................... 217 Chapter 7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 223 7.1 Democratic Quality of Elections: Revisiting the problem .................................. 224 7.2 A New Conception of Democratic Elections ....................................................... 226 7.3 On Democratisation and Competitive Authoritarianism .................................... 238 7.4 Future Research .................................................................................................. 240 7.5 Some Recommendations ...................................................................................... 242 7.6 Conclusion........................................................................................................... 245 Bibliography............................................................................................................................ 248 Primary Sources:........................................................................................................ 248 Secondary Sources: .................................................................................................... 257 Appendices: ............................................................................................................................. 275 A1: Comparative constitutional provisions of INEC Autonomy ................................ 275 v A2: Index for the Study of Democratic Quality of Election in Nigeria ...................... 276 A3: Katsina State Presidential of Election Result Sheet ............................................ 277 A4: (a) 2007 Presidential Election Result (INEC copy) ............................................ 278 A4: (b) 2007 Presidential Elections Result INEC declared, posted, & removed....... 279 A5: Indicative Interview Questions ............................................................................ 280 A6: Mode of Party Primaries in the 2011 Elections .................................................. 281 vi List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 2.1 Phases of Postcolonial Elections in Nigeria ................................................................. 27 Table 2.2 Nigeria’s Population 1952 & 2006............................................................................... 30 Table 2.3 Incumbency Rate 1959 - 2011....................................................................................... 36 Table 2.4 Search for Viable Federation........................................................................................ 39 Table 2.5 Electoral Authorities in Nigeria 1958 – Present .......................................................... 45 Table 3.1 Pattern of Voter Registration in 2007 & 2011.............................................................. 59 Table 3.2 Lindberg’s Democratic Elections ................................................................................. 63 Table 3.3 Levitsky & Way’s Democratic and Unfair Elections .................................................... 64 Table 3.4 Birch’s Democratic Voting ........................................................................................... 65 Table 3.5 Operationalising Democratic Quality .......................................................................... 69 Table 3.6 Presidential Elections Voter Turnout 2007 & 2011 ....................................................