Impact Assessment and Economic Benefits of Weather and Marine Services December 2010 National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) Parisila Bhawan, 11, I.P. Estate New Delhi- 110 002, INDIA Tel: +91-11-2337 9861-63 Fax: +91-11-2337 0164 Website: www.ncaer.org copyright@2010 by the National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi – 110 002. Preface The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) was formed in 2006 from a merger of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Earth Risk Evaluation Centre (EREC), and the Department of Ocean Development. The Mission of the MoES is to provide the nation with forecasts of the monsoons and other weather/climate parameters, and information about ocean state, earthquakes, tsunamis and other phenomena related to earth systems through well-integrated programs. These services have significant economic and social benefits that are otherwise very difficult to quantify. The actual and potential benefits to the key stakeholders like individuals, firms, industry sectors and national bodies from state-of-the-art meteorological and related services are substantial and, till today, they are inadequately recognised and insufficiently exploited in India. NCAER was approached by the MoES to carry out a comprehensive study to understand the perspectives of the main stakeholders on the weather and marine services and estimate the economic and social benefits of these services provided by the MoES. However the MoES provides numerous services and the number of beneficiaries is large. This study has restricted to the main stakeholders, such as farmers and fishermen. The services chosen for this study were agro-meteorological advisory services, fishery services, tsunami warning services, severe weather warning services and public weather forecast services. It was found that awareness on the utility of ocean state information and identification of Potential Fishing Zones (PFZs) among fishermen was quite high as provided by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS). Identification of potential fishing zones increases productivity, significantly improves catch size and reduces fuel consumption while ocean state information is quite useful in timing departure and sequencing on shore activities and avoiding extreme weather-related emergency situations. The catalytic role played by the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), the adoption of the ‘Fishermen Friends ’ programme, and PFZs leveraging technology options such as Digital Display Boards with NGOs intermediation were seen as positive outcomes in the study. In the case of farmers, only 24 percent were aware of weather information. Farmers ’ awareness of the bulletins of Agro Advisory Services on setting up common service centres was quite low. It is suggested that a Farmers ’ Friends Programme be replicated on a pilot scale along the lines of the Fishermen Friends Programme to institutionalise the NGO intermediation process in disseminating weather information to the farming community. It is hoped that this study would be valuable to planners and policymakers in understanding the usability of national meteorological and ocean state services in the Indian context. New Delhi Suman Bery December 2010 Director-General Acknowledgements The comprehensive study of Impact Assessment and Economic Benefits of Weather and Marine Services within the specified time frame would not have been possible but for the cooperation of a number of people and orgainsations. India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) and MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), have put in a great deal of effort to give the study a final shape. The NCAER would therefore like to thank all those individuals who met its team members during the course of this study assigned by the Ministry of Earth Sciences and have worked towards the completion of this report. NCAER also takes this opportunity to thank Sigma Research and Consulting Pvt Ltd, the partnering research agency, for coordinating field survey, and the associated data collection, collation efforts etc in a very professional manner; the NCAER team was responsible for research and compilation of the report. NCAER would like to thank the Ministry of Earth Sciences for financially supporting this independent study of the services rendered by the different units of the Ministry. Study Team PROJECT LEADER Mr. R. Venkatesan Senior Consultant Ministry of Earth ScienceSciencessss Dr. Parvinder Maini Project Review and Advisor CORE RESEARCH TEAM National Council of Applied Economic Research Sigma Research and ConsConsultingulting Pvt Ltd Dr. Laxmi Joshi Dr. U.V. Somauyajulu Associate Fellow CEO and Executive Director Dr. Mahua Bhattacharjee Dr. Purujit Praharaj Consultant Research Manager Ms. Monisha Grover Ms. Vinita Verma Research Associate Research Associate Ms. Ja ya Koti Mr. Mahendra Chaudhary Research Associate Overall Field Control Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... i CHAPTER I: Background and Scope of the Study .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 National Meteorological Services: World Bank Review in Europe and Central Asia ......................... 1 1.1.1 Key Sectors Likely to Benefit (as Identified by the World Bank) .......................................... 1 1.1.2 National Budgets for NMSs: World Bank Survey ................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Assessment of Benefits of NMHS Operations/Modernisation ............................................. 3 1.1.4 Factors Affecting Economic Returns: Accuracy, Vulnerability and Inclusiveness ................. 3 1.2 Growth Rate of Agriculture and Allied Sectors: Key Components of Inclusiveness ........................... 4 1.2.1 Weather Phenomena Affects Growth Rate Performance in Agriculture and Allied Sectors 5 1.2.2 Weather Forecasts Vital for the Sector ’s Stakeholders —Farmers and Fishermen ................ 5 1.2.3 Weather Hazards ................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.4 Do Stakeholders Derive Economic Benefits from Weather Forecasts? ................................. 5 1.2.5 Stakeholder (Farmers and Fishermen) Share in Value of Sectoral Output ............................ 6 1.2.6 Agriculture and Allied Sectors: Short-term Subsector-wise Growth Analysis ...................... 6 1.2.7 Long-term Trends in Agricultural Growth vis-à-vis Weather Conditions ........................... 7 1.2.8 Recent Agricultural Policy Developments ............................................................................. 7 1.2.9 Mid-Term Appraisal of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007 –12): Supply-Side Response through Weather Forecasts and Agro-Advisory Services Suited to Such Forecasts are Required ................................................................................................................................. 8 1.2.10 NMSs in India: MoES ........................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Scope of the Present Study ................................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Organisation of the Report ................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER II: Survey Methodology and Research Design ............................................................................ 11 2.1 Respondent Group and Study Area ................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Sample Size and Coverage .................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Sampling Design ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.3.1 For Agromet Services ........................................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 For Fishermen Services ........................................................................................................ 12 2.3.3 For Cyclone Services ............................................................................................................ 13 2.3.4 Selection of TV Channels .................................................................................................... 13 2.3.5 Study Instruments ................................................................................................................ 13 2.4 Training and Field Operations ........................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Training of Field Staff and Field Work ............................................................................... 13 2.4.2 Quality Control Mechanism ................................................................................................ 14 2.4.3 Ethical Issues ........................................................................................................................ 14 2.5 Data Processing and Analysis ............................................................................................................