Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: 60963-PK PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$400 MILLION AND Public Disclosure Authorized PROPOSED CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF 283.7 MILLION SDRS (US$440 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN FOR THE TARBELA FOURTH EXTENSION HYDROPOWER PROJECT (T4HP) Public Disclosure Authorized February 23, 2012 Sustainable Development Department Energy Sector Unit South Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS April 2011 Currency Unit = Pakistan Rupees (PKR) US$ = 85 PKR FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 Weight and Measures Metric System 1 meter (m) = 3.280 feet 1 hectare (ha) = 2.470 acres 1 Kilometer (km) = 0.620 miles 1 cubic meter (m) = 35.310 cubic feet 1 million acre feet (MAF) = 1.234 billion cubic meters 1 cubic foot/second (cfs) = 0.0283 cubic meters/sec (m3/sec) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAS Country Assistance Strategy IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine and Development CPPA Central Power Purchasing Agency IBWS Indus Basin Water System CPS Country Partnership Strategy IBWT Indus Basin Water Treaty CQ Consultants’ Qualification ICB International Competitive Bidding CSCs Construction Supervision Consultants ICR Implementation Completion Report CSO Civil Society Organization ICS Individual Consultant Selection DA Designated Account IDA International Development Agency dgMarket Development Gateway Market IDC Interest During Construction DISCO Distribution Company IFIs International Financial Institutions DP Development Partner IFR Interim Financial Report DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio IPPs Independent Power Producers EA Environmental Assessment IPOE Independent Panel of Experts EIA Environmental Impact Assessment KAPCO Kot Addu Power Company EMP Environmental Management Plan KESC Karachi Electric Supply Corporation ERR Economic Rate of Return KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ESA Environmental and Social Assessment kWh Kilowatt hour FBS Fixed Budget Selection LCS Least Cost Selection FM Financial Management MOWP Ministry of Water and Power GBHP Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project M&E Monitoring & Evaluation GDP Gross Domestic Product M&ECs Monitoring & Evaluation Consultants GHG Greenhouse Gas MW Megawatt GM General Manager NCB National Competitive Bidding GMRC Glacier Monitoring and Research NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Center Authority GoP Government of Pakistan NGO Non Governmental Organization GPN General Procurement Notice NPCC National Power Control Center GWh Gigawatt hour NPV Net Present Value ii NTDC National Transmission and Dispatch SIL Specific Investment Loan Company Limited SOPs Standard Operating Procedures O&M Operation and Maintenance SSS Single Source Selection ORAF Operational Risk Assessment T&D Transmission and Distribution Framework T4HP Tarbela Fourth Extension Hydropower PD Project Director Project PDO Project Development Objectives TA Technical Assistance PEPCO Pakistan Electric Power Company TOR Terms of Reference PMU Project Management Unit UIB Upper Indus Basin PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper UNDB United Nations Development Business PSIHP Pakistan Snow and Ice Hydrology WAPDA Water and Power Development Project Authority QBS Quality Based Selection WEC WAPDA Environmental Cell QCBS Quality and Cost Based Selection WTP Willingness to pay SAP Social Action Plan Regional Vice President: Isabel M. Guerrero Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Sector Director: John Henry Stein Sector Manager: Jyoti Shukla Task Team Leader: Masood Ahmad This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. iii Table of Contents I. Strategic Context ..................................................................................................................... 1 A. Country Context ............................................................................................................... 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................... 2 C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes .............................................. 7 II. Project Development Objectives............................................................................................. 7 A. PDO .................................................................................................................................. 7 1. Project Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................... 7 2. PDO Level Results Indicators ...................................................................................... 8 III. Project Description............................................................................................................... 8 A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 9 B. Project Financing ........................................................................................................ 11 1. Lending Instrument..................................................................................................... 11 2. Project Cost and Financing. ........................................................................................ 11 C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ............................................... 12 D. Alternatives Considered and Reasons for Rejection .................................................. 13 IV. Implementation .................................................................................................................. 16 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 16 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 17 C. Implementation Support, Governance and Accountability Framework ..................... 18 D. Sustainability .............................................................................................................. 19 V. Critical Risks and Possible Controversial Aspects ............................................................... 20 VI. Appraisal Summary ........................................................................................................... 21 A. Economic and Financial Analysis .............................................................................. 21 B. Technical .................................................................................................................... 24 C. Financial Management ............................................................................................... 25 D. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 26 E. Social (including safeguards) ..................................................................................... 26 F. Environment (including safeguards) .......................................................................... 28 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring.............................................................................. 37 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description ......................................................................................... 39 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ...................................................................................... 55 Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) ...................................................... 69 iv Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan ........................................................................................ 73 Annex 5.1: Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP) .............................................. 76 Annex 6: Team Composition ........................................................................................................ 87 Annex 7A: Project Economic and Financial Analysis .................................................................. 88 Annex 7 B: Entity Financial Analysis ........................................................................................ 109 Annex 8: Social Action Plan ....................................................................................................... 116 Annex 9: Summary of Environmental and Social Assessments and Action Plans .................... 119 MAPS IBRD 38944 IBRD 37352 v PAKISTAN TARBELA FOURTH EXTENSION HYDROPOWER PROJECT (T4HP) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT South Asia Region SASDE Date: February 23, 2012 Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Sector(s): Renewable energy (90%); General water, Sector Director: John Henry Stein sanitation and flood protection (10%) Sector Manager: Jyoti Shukla Theme(s): Other Economic management (67%); Team Leader(s): Masood Ahmad Water Resources Management (33%) Project ID: P115893 Lending Instrument: Specific Investment EA Category: Full Assessment; Category A Loan Project Financing Data: Proposed terms: [X ] Loan [ X] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: Total Bank financing (US$m): 840 For US$400 million, fixed spread variable rate loan with