2011 disputes non-violent crises violent crises limited wars wars NO. 20 VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2011 ON NATIONAL LEVEL : NO VIOLENT CONFLICT : CRISIS : LIMITED WAR : WAR AUTHORS TABLE OF CONTENTS EUROPE : Felix Bings (fmb) Lucía Galeano Nunez (lug) VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2011 ON NATIONAL LEVEL Jan Deuter (jd) Melanie Quintero (meq) Lars Dittrich (ld) Laura Schelenz (las) GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA Dominik Hattrup (dh) Nicole Schmidt (nms) Florian Hildebrandt (fph) Aleksandra Sreckovic (als) Manuela Peitz (map) Jannik Stemler (js) Global Development 2 Kerim Aissa (ka) Stefan Tominski (stt) Analysis intrastate - interstate 3 Jana Allenberg (jb) Adrian Dincher (ad) ASIA AND OCEANIA : Regional Development 3 Johanna Engelhardt (joe) Stephan Giersdorf (sg) Dynamics within individual Conflicts 4 Stefan Hein (sth) Moritz Rudolf (mr) Conflict Items 5 Christoph Trinn (ct) Katharina Horn (kh) Terrorism 5 Moritz Kaul (mk) Thomas Wencker (thw) Marion Kipiani (mak) Konstantin Axt (axt) Coups d’État 6 Alen Knuth (akn) Johannes Le Blanc (jlb) Revolutions 6 Jana Maria Kühnl (jak) Kristin Bleyder (kbl) Shamila Borchers (sbo) Elena-Loredana Ocenic (elo) MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Nathalie Pogoda (np) Jan Deuter (jd) Felicitas Schenck (fes) Vanessa Elges (ve) Tobias Schopper (ts) Jason Franz (jfr) Negotiations and Treaties 8 Lukas Welz (lw) Arthur Garifullin (aga) Autoritative Decisions by the ICJ 8 Katharina Wuropulos (kwu) Liza von Grafenstein (lgr) Janina Hirth (jah) International Organizations 9 Sub-Sahara africa : Verena Kausche (vk) Fiona Byrne (fb) Hannah Laubenthal (hal) REGIONS Natalie Hoffmann (nch) Philip Lorenz (plo) Dominik Thierfelder (dt) Sonja Meyer (som) Stephan Adolphy (sad) Simon Philipps (sip) Europe 11 Sarah Berberich (sab) Julia Reimers (jr) Sub-Saharan Africa 27 Nina Bernarding (nbe) Jan Rejeski (jre) The Americas 49 Claire Born (clb) Nikolaus Rentrop (nr) Asia and Oceania 63 Simon Ellerbrock (sel) Linus Rob (lr) Tim Glawion (tg) Elisabeth Rowley (er) The Middle East and Maghreb 89 Thea Gutschke (thg) Henrik Rubner (hru) Josephine Günther (jog) Patrick Rüppel (prü) METHODOLOGY Simone Habel (sha) David Schenke (dsc) Julia Held (jhe) Caja Schleich (cs) Sophie Hermann-Jung (shj) Lars Stöwesand (ls) Methodology 108 Bettina Hornbach (bh) Imran Syed (isy) Database CONIS 109 Annette Kappler (kaa) Matthias Wiegand (mw) Henning Katzmann (hka) Maximilian Würfel (mfu) VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2011 ON SUBNATIONAL LEVEL Christopher Keller (cke) Alexey Yusupov (ayu) Milena Luidl (mlu) Heidrun Lotta Mayer (hlm) MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB : Alena Mehlau (am) Bastian Herre (ba) Sonja Meyer (som) Magdalena Kirchner (mki) Birgit Kirsten Müllner (bkm) Valentin Lang (val) Lea Manjana Pecht (lmp) Inna Veleva (iv) Analyzed Period Joost Punstein (jpu) Yasemin Altintop (yal) 12/01/2010 - 12/31/2011 Franziska Rau (fr) Sara García Arteagoitia (sag) Paul Schaudt (psc) Daniel Church (dac) Ginger Schmitz (gsz) Sina El-Bosely (skb) Rüdiger Schwarz (rs) Sheherazade Elyazidi (sel) Sebastian Sieber (ses) Tanja Eschenauer (et) Marcus Weber (mwe) Christian Flittner (cf) Franziska Wehinger (fw) Chiara Guccione (cg) Florian Hönigschmid (fhö) THE AMERICAS : Ruben Limon Kindel (rl) The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research Francisco Borrero Londoño (fbl) Fabian Klein (fk) (HIIK) at the Department of Political Science, University of Hei- Heiko Flink (hef) Miriam Kurz (mku) delberg is a registered non-profit association. It is dedicated Peter Hachemer (peh) Hendrick Lehmann (hl) to research, evaluation and documentation of intra- and in- Kirsten Caroline Rauch (kcr) Michael Nissler (mni) Jenny Vera Franziska Abel (jva) Eva Oliveira (eol) terstate political conflicts. The HIIK evolved from the research Sebastian Beckmann (seb) Selina Peter (sep) project »COSIMO« (Conflict Simulation Model) led by Prof. Dr. Ira Dorband (ird) Florian Rühl (flor) Frank R. Pfetsch (University of Heidelberg) and financed by the Leonie Ederli Fickinger (lef) Maren Sass (mass) German Research Association (DFG) in 1991. Johanna Kleffmann (jok) Vera Seidel (vs) Andre Koelln (ank) Anna Sunik (asu) Michael Männel (mgm) Simon Ullrich (sul) G lobal C onflict P anorama GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Between December 2010 and December 2011, a total of 388 (KNU, KNLA, DKBA Brigade 5 / Karen State, Kayah State), and conflicts were observed. Among these were twenty wars and Pakistan (Mohajirs – Balochis, Pakhtuns, Sindhis). eighteen limited wars, amounting to 38 highly violent con- Among the eighteen limited wars monitored, three erupted flicts. Another 148 conflicts were classified as violent crises, anew in 2011. One of them also occurred in the course of the thereby exceeding last year’s all-time high. Arab Spring protests [1 Tunisia (various opposition groups)], The remaining 202 conflicts were conducted without violent two emerged due to the independence of South Sudan on July means, with 87 conflicts being judged as non-violent crises 9 [1 Sudan – South Sudan, Sudan (SPLM/A-North / Southern and 115 as disputes. Compared to the previous year, the total Kordofan, Blue Nile)]. Another six conflicts escalated from vio- number of conflicts increased by eighteen, from 370 to 388. lent crises in 2010 into limited wars in 2011: Mauritania (AQIM), Most significant was the increase in the number of wars, from Iran (PJAK / Kurdish areas), Thailand – Cambodia (border), My- six cases in 2010 to twenty in 2011, while limited wars decre- anmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State), DR Congo (FDLR), and Colombia ased by four from last year’s 22 cases. Furthermore, the num- (paramilitary groups, drug cartels). The remaining nine limited ber of crises rose by nine, from 139 to 148. In contrast, the wars had already been fought out on this level of intensity in number of non-violent conflicts decreased by two, with a drop 2010: Algeria (AQIM), Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian Territo- of non-violent crises from 108 to 87 and a simultaneous rise ry), India (Naxalites), Pakistan (Taliban – various tribes), Thailand of disputes from 95 to 115. (various Islamist separatist / southern border provinces), Ugan- With this years total of twenty, the number of wars reached da (LRA), Colombia (FARC), Mexico (inter-cartel violence, para- an all-time high since the beginning of the observation peri- military groups), and Russia (Islamist militants / Dagestan). od in 1945. Three new conflicts started as wars in 2011, all of Eighteen new conflicts emerged in 2011. All new conflicts them in the context of the Arab Spring protests and located observed started violently in the very year of their beginning, in the region of Middle East and Maghreb: Yemen (various op- six of them on a highly violent level. Most affected was the position groups), Libya (opposition), and Syria (various oppo- region of Middle East and Maghreb, accounting for thirteen sition groups). The six wars which had already been observed new violent conflicts, among them three wars and one limited in 2010 remained on the same level of intensity in 2011: Iraq war. Furthermore, three new crises started in Asia and Oceania, (Sunni militant groups), Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Pakistan while two limited wars erupted in Sub-Saharan Africa. (various Islamist militant groups), Sudan (Darfur), Somalia (Is- Seven conflicts were considered to have ended during lamist groups), and Mexiko (drug cartels). Furthermore, eleven the observation period. Three of these were located in Sub- already existing conflicts escalated into wars in 2011. Only the Saharan Africa, two in the Americas, and one each in Asia and conflict in Nigeria (Northerners – Southerners) escalated from Oceania, as well as in Europe. While conflicts in DR Congo a non-violent level into war, whereas six former violent crises (Enyele – Boba), Somalia (al-Shabaab – Hizbul Islam), Colombia turned to wars: Egypt (various opposition groups), Côte d’Ivoire – Ecuador, and Russia – Norway (Barents Sea) were solved by (opposition), Nigeria (Boko Haram), Sudan (SPLM/A / South treaties or agreements between the conflict parties, Canada’s Sudan), Sudan (inter-ethnic violence) [since July South Sudan (Bloc Québécois / Quebec) was considered to have ended after (inter-ethnic violence)], and Sudan (SPLM/A – various militias) the conflict actor Bloc Québécois had lost its party status. The [since July South Sudan (various militias)]. Additionally, four conflict between Bangladesh and India was resolved due to the former limited wars were fought out as wars in 2011: Turkey improved relations between the two states [1 Bangladesh – In- (PKK / Kurdish areas), Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia), Myanmar dia]. Furthermore, the conflict between the Khartoum govern- GLOBAL CONFLICT INTENSITIES IN GLOBAL CONFLICTS OF LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH 2011 COMPARED TO 2010 INTENSITY 1945 TO 2011 2011 : low Intensity : 2010 : medium Intensity : 148 high Intensity : 139 115 108 200 95 87 150 100 50 22 18 20 6 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war 2 G lobal C onflict P anorama ment of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ 2011. However, this increase must partly be considered as a Army (SPLM/A) ended with the independence of South Sudan statistical artifact, as the scope and quality of available infor- on July 9, but was subsequently succeeded by the conflict bet- mation on current conflicts augmented considerably in recent ween Sudan and the new state [1 Sudan – South Sudan]. decades. Most of the observed conflicts were conflicts of low In order to reveal