ST/ESA/SER.A/366 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Urbanization Prospects The 2014 Revision United Nations New York, 2015 DESA The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. Note The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, (ST/ESA/SER.A/366). PREFACE The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations Secretariat is responsible for providing the international community with up-to-date and scientifically objective information on population and development. The Population Division provides guidance to the United Nations General Assembly, Economic and Social Council, and the Commission on Population and Development on population and development issues and undertakes regular studies on population levels and trends, population estimates and projections, population policies, and population and development inter-relationships. The Population Division’s work encompasses the following substantive areas: the study of mortality, fertility, international and internal migration, including their levels and trends as well as their causes and consequences; estimates and projections of the distribution of the population between urban and rural areas and in cities; estimates and projections of population size, age and sex structure, and demographic indicators for all countries of the world; the documentation and analysis of population and development policies at the national and international levels; and the study of the relationship between socio-economic development and population change. This report presents the results of the 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects including the official United Nations estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for major areas, regions and countries of the world and of all urban agglomerations with 300,000 inhabitants or more in 2014. The data in this Revision are consistent with the total populations estimated and projected according to the medium variant of the 2012 Revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections, published in World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. This Revision updates and supersedes previous estimates and projections published by the United Nations. Other products presenting the results of the 2014 Revision include a Highlights publication1, a methodological report2, two wall charts3 and a CD-ROM4, among others. A description of the CD-ROM and an order form are available at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/OrderCD-ROM.aspx. In preparing the 2014 Revision, particular attention was given to the production of detailed documentation on the data sources and definitions used at the country level, as well as for cities and urban agglomerations. The full metadata compiled in this regard are accessible on the Population Division’s website.5 The site also includes useful figures and maps illustrating the results obtained. Responsibility for the 2014 Revision rests with the Population Division. In preparing the 2014 Revision, the Population Division relied on the collaboration of the Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat; its United Nations Demographic Yearbook and its accompanying databases have provided access to official national population statistics used in the preparation of the 2014 Revision. The Population Division also acknowledges the use of information accessible via the website citypopulation.de and the support of national statistical offices that made available data and reports from recent censuses and surveys. The Population Division is grateful for the contributions made by all these entities. This report was prepared by a team led by François Pelletier, including Kirill Andreev, Lina Bassarsky, Patrick Gerland, Danan Gu, Sara Hertog, Vladimira Kantarova, Mun Sim Lai, Nan Li and Hantamalala Rafalimanana, who generated estimates and projections and/or drafted chapters. Igor Ribeiro and Chandrasekhar Yamarthy contributed programming and data processing, and Neena Koshy provided formatting and editorial support. Barney Cohen provided key guidance and useful comments and inputs on the draft report. This publication may also be accessed on the website of the Population Division at www.unpopulation.org. For further information about the 2014 Revision, please contact the office of the Director, Population Division, DESA, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA; tel.: (1 212) 963-3209, fax: (1 212) 963-2147. 1 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.8). 2 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Methodology Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.237. 3 Urban and Rural Areas 2014, (ST/ESA/SER.A/360, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.15) and Urban Agglomerations 2014, (ST/ESA/SER.A/359, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.14). 4 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision (CD-ROM Edition) (ST/ESA/SER.A/361). 5 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division iii World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision CONTENTS Page PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................................. iii EXPLANATORY NOTE ......................................................................................................................................... x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... xxi INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapters I. KEY FINDINGS OF THE 2014 REVISION ..................................................................................................... 7 A. Levels and trends of urbanization ...................................................................................................... 7 B. The size and growth of the urban and rural populations .................................................................... 12 C. The size and growth of major urban agglomerations ......................................................................... 16 II. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION GROWTH AND WORLD URBANIZATION PROSPECTS .............................. 21 A. Overview of world urbanization trends ............................................................................................. 21 B. Contrasting urbanization trends in the less developed regions and the more developed regions .............................................................................................................................. 25 C. Patterns of urban and rural growth by the income groups ................................................................. 33 D. Patterns of urban and rural growth in the major areas of the world ................................................... 36 III. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL ........................................ 45 A. The level of urbanization ................................................................................................................... 45 B. The size and growth of the urban and rural populations .................................................................... 56 C. The rate of urbanization ..................................................................................................................... 59 IV. PATTERN OF CITY GROWTH ..................................................................................................................... 71 A. Patterns of city growth over time....................................................................................................... 71 B. The Urban Hierarchy ......................................................................................................................... 78 C. The number and growth of large