Membership Growth, Church Activity, and Missionary Recruitment Gordon Shepherd and Gary Shepherd No other American religion is so ambitious, and no rival even remotely ap- proaches the spiritual audacity that drives endlessly toward accomplishing a titanic design. The Mormons fully intend to convert the nation and the world; to go from some ten million souls to six billion. This is sublimely in- sane. ... Yet the Mormons will not falter; they will take the entire twenty- first century as their span, if need be, and surely it will be. —Harold Bloom1 To COMPREHEND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE of Mormonism as a major reli- gious force in the twenty-first century, it is essential to comprehend the missionary ideology and practices of the LDS church. For rank-and-file Latter-day Saints, this proposition seems simply axiomatic of their foun- dational faith in the restoration of Christ's gospel and their divine man- date to convert the world in anticipation of his second advent.2 For outside observers (and many LDS church planners as well), projecting and explaining the patterns of Mormon growth produced by evangeliz- 1. Harold Bloom, The American Religion: The Emergence of the Post-Christian Nation (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992), 113. 2. For a recent historical analysis of LDS millenarian beliefs and their relationship to the development of the Mormon missionary ethos, see Grant Underwood, The Millenarian World of Early Mormonism (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1993). 34 Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought ing efforts in the world religious economy is complex and problematic. By religious economy we mean the marketplace of competing faiths in a society where individuals exercise personal preferences in deciding about religious affiliation.3 Where religious choice is possible and compe- tition among different denominations for adherents is allowed by politi- cal authorities, we may speak of a religious market. As in other market economies, action in a religious economy is shaped by both supply and demand. Competing denominations must mobilize their resources in a si- multaneous attempt to shape and cater to individuals' religious prefer- ences.4 The structure of the world religious economy defines the historical context in which the LDS church is expanding through mission- ary recruitment. In this essay we examine LDS growth rates in different world regions as a function of the size and distribution of the LDS mis- sionary force in comparison to other Christian missionary competitors. We focus in particular on the growth of new stake organizations as a measure of recruitment success and active lay retention. On the basis of these and other institutional indicators, we consider some of the pros- pects and potential problems for continued LDS missionary recruitment internationally in the century to come. Religions grow over time through natural increase (i.e., birth rates that exceed both death rates and member defections), as well as through recruitment of new members. Natural increase has been an important source of Mormon growth historically.5 Yet far more important to rapid expansion of the modern LDS church in many parts of the world has been a renewed emphasis on international proselyting since World War II and a willingness to concentrate church resources on the systematic en- hancement of missionary programs. Missionary recruitment as the pri- mary mechanism of LDS member growth in recent decades can be seen in Table 1. By 1960 the proportion of LDS membership growth worldwide due to annual conversions exceeded natural increase for the first time in 3. For applications of the concept of religious economies, see Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, The Churching of America: Winners and Losers in Our Religious Economy (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1992); Laurence R. Iannaccone, "Religious Markets and the Eco- nomics of Religion," Social Compass 39 (1992): 123-31; Darren E. Sherkat and John Wilson, "Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in Religious Markets: An Examination of Religious Switching and Apostasy," Social Forces 73 (Mar. 1995): 993-1026; Rodney Stark and William Sims Bainbridge, The Future of Religion: Secularization, Revival, and Cult Formation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985). 4. See Peter L. Berger, The Sacred Canopy: Elements of a Sociological Theory of Religion (New York: Doubleday, 1967), 138-53; and Darren E. Sherkat, "Embedding Religious Choices: Inte- grating Preferences and Social Constraints into Rational Choice Theories of Religious Behav- ior," in Lawrence Young, ed., Assessing Rational Choice Theories of Religion (New York: Routledge Press, 1995). 5. Tim B. Heaton, "Vital Statistics," in Daniel H. Ludlow, ed., Encyclopedia ofMormonism (New York: Macmillan, 1992), 4:1522,1524. Shepherd and Shepherd: Growth, Activity, and Recruitment 35 this century and has continued to do so ever since. Currently, in fact, an- nual convert baptisms exceed those of Mormon children by approxi- mately four to one. Clearly recruitment much more than natural increase is fueling current Mormon expansion. Table 1 LDS Missionary Force and Convert Baptism Numbers for Selected Years, 1940-94 Missionaries Converts Child Convert/Child Convert/Miss- Year in the field Baptized Baptisms Baptism Ratio ionary Ratio 1940 2,216 7,877 14,412 0.55 3.55 1945 592 4,957 16,106 0.31 8.37 1950 5,313 14,700 22,808 0.64 2.77 1955 4,687 21,669 32,807 0.66 4.62 1960 9,097 48,586 42,189 1.15 5.34 1965 12,585 82,455 49,413 1.67 6.55 1970 14,387 79,126 55,210 1.43 5.50 1975 22,492 95,412 50,263 1.90 4.24 1980 29,953 211,000 65,000 3.25 7.04 1985 29,265 197,640 70,000 2.82 6.75 1990 43,651 330,877 78,000 4.24 7.58 1991 43,395 297,770 75,000 3.97 6.86 1992 46,025 274,477 77,380 3.55 5.96 1993 48,708 304,808 76,312 3.99 6.26 1994 47,311 300,730 72,535 4.15 6.36 Sources: Deseret Church News Almanac, 1994-95; LDS Conference Reports, 1940-59; Ensign 25 (May 1995). Religious recruitment and conversion rates, however, vary dramati- cally from one world region to another. Relatively open, active religious markets are unequally distributed in the world religious economy. Old markets decline and new ones emerge. For example, as religious histori- ans have long recognized, the population center of modern Christianity has shifted dramatically in this century from Europe and its colonies in North America to regions of the southern hemisphere. According to mis- siologist Andrew Walls, "The only safe prediction appears to be that [Christianity's] southern populations in Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Pacific, which provide its present centers of significance, hold the key to its future."6 As a rule, LDS proselyting success has followed general Christian trends; the overwhelming majority of Mormon converts are already Christians, who are recruited in markets already cultivated by other Christian denominations. Correspondingly, in recent decades LDS mis- sions have proliferated in Christianized countries of the southern conti- 6. Andrew Walls, "Christianity," in John R. Hinnells, ed., Handbook of Living Religions (Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Viking, 1984), 70, 73. 36 Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought nents, especially in the predominantly Catholic countries of Latin America. MISSIONARY TRAINING Dominant trends in Mormon proselyting programs since World War II, both in missionary preparation and in the field, include increasing reli- ance on: (1) uniformity of the proselyting message and how it is to be de- livered by missionaries, (2) goal setting and outcome measurement by objective criteria, (3) standardized and programmatic training of mission- ary novices, (4) systematic supervision of missionary performance, and (5) cost-benefit accountability. These are all characteristics of the modern, bureaucratic ethos of corporate rationality and illustrate what Andrew Walls describes as the American business approach to Christian mis- sions.8 According to LDS historian Gordon Irving, even though church lead- ers always urged lay members actively to support the missionary effort, "proselyting continued to be a relatively slow process during the 1950s. Missionaries would spend several months instructing converts prior to baptism, making sure that they fully understood every aspect of church doctrine and procedure before inviting them to become members. Mis- sion presidents could see that help was needed for their elders, who, left to their own devices, hoped for spiritual guidance but often faltered in presenting the gospel convincingly to non-Mormons."9 A trend thus de- veloped toward standard and systematic lesson outlines and aids in mis- sions throughout the world. In 1953 The Systematic Program for Teaching the Gospel became the first set of missionary lessons published by the church to be used in all mis- sions. Prior to this time a number of ad hoc plans had been developed and used as aids in proselyting in different missions of the church with vary- ing degrees of success. As noted by Jay E. Jensen, a former Missionary Department administrator and current member of the Second Quorum of the Seventy: "Having a systematic plan to present the message of the church gave rise to a systematic plan for training."10 In 1961 a conference 7. See Heaton, 1521. 8. Andrew Walls, "World Christianity: The Missionary Movement and the Ugly Amer- ican," in Wade Clark Roof, ed., World Order and Religion (Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 1991), 156- 58. 9. Gordon Irving, "Mormonism and Latin America: A Preliminary Historical Survey," Task Papers in LDS History, No. 10 (Salt Lake City: Historical Department, Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, 1976), 22-23. 10. All the information in this paragraph comes from Jay E. Jensen, "The Effect of Initial Mission Field Training on Missionary Proselyting Skills," Ph.D.