CHANGING SECURITY PARADIGM IN WEST ASIA Regional and International Responses Editors MEENA SINGH ROY MD. MUDDASSIR QUAMAR CHANGING SECURITY PARADIGM IN WEST ASIA Regional and International Responses CHANGING SECURITY PARADIGM IN WEST ASIA Regional and International Responses Editors MEENA SINGH ROY MD. MUDDASSIR QUAMAR KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW Publishers Pvt Ltd New Delhi Copyright © 2020 Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Delhi Cantt. New Delhi-110 010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in ISBN 978-93-89137-59-0 Hardback Published in India by Kalpana Shukla KW Publishers Pvt Ltd 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Phone: +91 11 23263498/43528107 Marketing: [email protected] Editorial: [email protected] Website: www.kwpub.com Printed and bound in India The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author(s), and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author(s). While best efforts have been made in preparing the book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use of a particular purpose. The publisher believes that the contents of this book do not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action. Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgements xiii Notes on Editors and Contributors xv Address by Shri M.J. Akbar xxv Speech by H.E. Amine Gemayel xxxv Speech by Dr. Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour xli 1. Introduction: Conflict and Instability in the West Asian Region: Multiple Narratives 1 Meena Singh Roy 2. Iran-Saudi Arabia Conflict and the Path to Peace 19 Seyed Hossein Mousavian 3. Arab Hopelessness and its Strategic Consequences 25 Dan Schueftan 4. Turkey’s Middle East Policies 39 Mustafa Aydın and Cihan Dizdaroglu 5. The UN and the Palestine Question: Security and Conflict in the Middle East 55 Abdelhamid Abdeljaber 6. Egypt and Geostrategic Challenges in the Middle East: Terrorism, Alliances, and Political Changes 73 Elsayed Ali Abofarha 7. Israel-India Relations: An Evolving Synergy 86 Uri Resnick 8. Great Powers Challenge India’s Middle East Strategy 102 P. R. Kumaraswamy vi • Changing Security Paradigm in West Asia 9. Crowded Horizons: A View on the Naval Strategy of the United States of America in the Western Indian Ocean 116 Jeffrey Payne 10. China and the Middle East: New Dynamics but Consistent Policy 131 Jin Liangxiang 11. European Dilemmas in the Middle East: Conflicting Paradigms and Shifting Dynamics 142 Gidon Windecker 12. Protracted Transition in West Asia 160 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan 13. Finding the Elusive Peace and Stability: An Overview 175 Md. Muddassir Quamar Index 193 Foreword Today, we still live in an interconnected world, but one that is undergoing a profound transformation. There is uncertainty amidst growing nationalism, regionalism and diminishing multilateralism. There is a fracturing of power. States and non-states actors have the means to bridge asymmetry. Trade and technology are being weaponised and developmental finance is being used by some for strategic ends. Traditional and non-traditional security challenges have grown in magnitude. The spectre of terrorism, especially cross-border terrorism, casts a long shadow on peace and progress. The fragile international compact has been rendered a huge blow by COVID-19 – a fast-spreading and silent killer – which has quickly spread from China to the rest of the world. The pandemic has exposed flaws in multilateral structures and highlighted the lacunae in national capacities, particularly in healthcare. Worryingly, the global economy is beginning to reel under the unexpected effects of COVID-19, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting an impeding recession. Global supply chains have been disrupted, including energy exports from West Asia. One wonders if the current situation will strengthen the trend towards protectionism with emphasis on domestic manufacturing even if it is against the principles of market forces. The very notion of critical infrastructure in the cyber domain is changing with the growing dependence on webinars and online tasks, including for hospitals, banks and providers of essential services. The notion of national or global security is also being reshaped by COVID-19. Armed forces everywhere, often deployed in confined spaces, are facing tough choices in stemming the spread of the coronavirus without compromising national security. Beyond hard power and the threats of hybrid warfare, viii • Changing Security Paradigm in West Asia nations will have to rethink possible future scenarios and create numerically adequate forces of well-equipped pandemic experts, doctors and healthcare workers, to be the new foot soldiers in this battle. The 21st century is likely to be determined by our experience of COVID-19. Amidst these developments, the geopolitical situation in West Asia and North Africa (WANA) continues to remain fluid. The process of transition from authoritarianism to participatory politics has been painful and inconclusive. A power struggle among the key regional stakeholders has complicated the regional security situation in the Gulf. The unravelling of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as well as the drone attacks on two Aramco oil facilities in September 2019 and the unexpected killing of General Qassem Soleimani have complicated the situation. The situation in Syria, Libya and Yemen continues to deteriorate amidst growing sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions. Thousands of people have been killed while many more have been displaced. Iraq is yet to recover from the devastating civil war in the aftermath of the US intervention in 2003. The developments in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy have a direct bearing on Iraq’s future. The threat of ISIS has not completely disappeared. In fact, the militant group has metamorphosed into a ‘cyber-Caliphate’ through which it has been instigating lone-wolf attacks in Europe, the US and other parts of the world. The regional disarray has led to new power dynamics. The role of the US as the dominant security and stabilising actor is being challenged by a combination of other powers – a renascent Russia, a resurgent Iran, and an economic powerhouse in China. In fact, Russia has emerged as a de facto major player in the Eurasian landmass. The rise of the Kurds, especially in Iraq and Syria, is a significant development, triggering the return of Turkey’s military presence in West Asia. The formation of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), an inter-governmental counter-terrorist alliance of 41 Sunni countries led by Saudi Arabia, can have far-reaching implications. Foreword • ix The sharpening regional rivalry has created a complex web of alignments and realignments between regional, international and non-state actors, including serious fissures among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These upheavals have put an enormous strain on international and regional organisations such as the United Nations, UNHCR, the International Red Cross, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League, in their efforts to resolve and mitigate strife. Arguably, the conflicts in the region have become the “long war” in a region full of faultlines. The ongoing uncertainty has undermined WANA’s economic progress. The region’s economic growth is now almost half of what it was before the unrest began in 2011. Today, WANA has one of the world’s highest unemployment rates as well as the slowest GDP per capita growth. Given the rapid spread of COVID-19 in the region, the economic projections continue to remain grim. Amidst the continuing instability and violence, the issue of energy security has assumed enormous significance for the oil importing countries of India, Japan, South Korea and China. Production and supply of oil have been frequently disrupted. The emergence of non- OPEC oil suppliers, such as the US as the world’s largest producer and a major exporter, has undermined the traditional energy dominance of Gulf States. Given the fact that the Gulf is part of India’s extended neighbourhood, India remains concerned about the emerging developments. Today, the neighbourhood is being redefined not through geography but through reach. In this context, India’s policy of ‘Look West’ has been transformed into a ‘Link and Act West’ policy. This is reflected in PM Modi’s unprecedented visits to all the major states of West Asia, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Oman, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar. Some of these countries were not visited by an Indian Prime Minister in over three decades. This transformation in India’s historical ties is anchored in shared interests and prosperity. India values its strategic autonomy. This has permitted India to have friendly relations with both Israel x • Changing Security Paradigm in West Asia and Palestine and balance its ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia as also Iran and the US. The OIC’s invitation to India to participate as the guest country and to address the inaugural plenary of the OIC Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Abu Dhabi in March 2019, is a reflection of the growing acceptance of India’s as a key regional stakeholder.