Studie des Deutschen Orient-Instituts Elections in Jordan and Morocco Between ambitions and reality Kronenstraße 1 • D - 10117 Berlin • Tel.: +49 (0)30 - 206410-21 • Fax: +49 (0)30 - 206410-29 www.deutsche-orient-stiftung.de • www.deutsches-orient-institut.de • [email protected] Contents Contents Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Reforms, Parliaments and Legislative Performance ...................................................................... 5 Jordan ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Morocco ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 25 References ................................................................................................................................... 26 Board and Board of Trustees of the German Orient-Foundation .................................................. 30 Board and Advisory Board of NUMOV ......................................................................................... 31 Impressum ................................................................................................................................... 32 Deutsches Orient-Institut 2 Summary Summary • Jordan has held general elections on 20 th September 2016. Albeit a new election law was passed beforehand, far-reaching change has not been the theme of this ballot. In a system almost devoid of political parties the Muslim Brotherhood’s affiliates have garnered the most votes. A deterioration of the situation in neighbouring countries, as well as domestic setbacks, have taken a toll on the kingdom’s reform process. • Morocco’s general elections on 7 th October 2016 have re-affirmed the Justice and Development Party as strongest faction to head a coalition government. The Authenticity and Modernity Party, a watchdog established by the palace in 2008, became the second strongest faction. The parties’ influence on politics is limited compared to the omnipotent powers of the monarch – and substantial change appears unlikely. • Jordan and Morocco after protests emerged in 2011 have both undergone gradual reform processes including constitutional changes and now two general elections, respectively. • The kingdoms seem to follow waves of liberalisation and de-liberalisation since 2011, blanketing a lack of substantial reforms. Deutsches Orient-Institut 3 Elections in Jordan and Morocco Introduction his study seeks to analyse the recent stressed how democratic participation forms legislative elections in Jordan and a key component of their respective king - Morocco. Accelerated, if not trigge - doms’ futures. With these ambitions set, how Tred, by the waves of protest since 2011, do they test versus reality? In other words: both states have seen political contestation including the constitutional framework as followed by reforms with interesting trajec - changed in 2011 in Jordan and Morocco, to tories. The 2016 ballots can be seen as a what extent is parliament an influential insti - test of the state of this reform process. The tution within the political system? What po - following analysis will also attempt to unpack wers does it possess and how do they relate the framework of the elections – the consti - to those of other branches? And with that in tutional role of parliament, electoral laws, mind, what role has parliament played in re - party landscape, etc. – in order to locate cent years and how do the recent elections their relevance. impact this? Often seen as a harbinger of a meaningful In order to examine these questions, this process of democratisation, elections are study will first provide a condensed overview looked at as a favourable mechanism. In of the theoretical underpinnings and key li - both Jordan and Morocco, post-2011 reforms terature relevant to this issue, namely de - have emphasised the role of a parliament as mocratisation theory. With this groundwork the elected representation of the people’s laid out, sections on Jordan and Morocco will. Within the gradual process of political re - follow before a conclusion attempts to form, Abdullah II and Muhammad VI have deduce overall results. Deutsches Orient-Institut 4 Elections in Jordan and Morocco Reforms, Parliaments and Legislative Performance: Between Ambitions and Reality emocratisation – as well as the con - the 1990s as well. Long seen as aiding the nected topics of elections and the role erosion of the elites’ grip onto power and of institutions – has been a major in - thus fostering democratisation, 5 the role of Dterest in the study of political developments institutions was later reassessed as allowing in the Arab world. Guided by the question of incumbents to manage power. Accordingly, when the region will lose its diagnosed ex - differing from democratic polities, non-de - ceptionalism – from the ‘third wave’ 1 to the mocratic elections and the legislative bodies ‘Arab Spring’ – many have investigated the determined by them have been analysed in prospects for Arab countries to become more three different ways. First, they can serve as democratic, pluralistic and participatory. The a public display of unity and joint support for collapse of the Soviet Union and the subse - the incumbent. Second, they are viewed as quent democratisation of its former republics means of patronage – creating, enlarging or fuelled a ‘demo-crazy’ 2 environment in the reshaping networks for the distribution of ma - study of Arab countries, often following the terial or immaterial gains – that allows the normative, almost teleological assumption ruler to have those sympathetic to him re - that the region’s states would give way to warded and incentivise others to be lenient. more democratic polities after all. 3 Seeing, as Third, elections and legislatives can be seen Francis Fukuyama famously coined it, the as ‘safety valves’ – a means to channel and ‘end of history’ 4 looming, many reforms and exhaust socio-economic or political pressure changes were seen as first steps in a pro - by offering avenues for discontent to be rai - cess of democratisation, eventually leaving sed. Moreover, oppositional groups can be more participatory systems and accountable integrated into the system rather than having governments. them fight it (co-optation). 6 During the 1990s and the early 2000s much In this way, institutions such as parliaments of this euphoria was confronted by a reality in have since been seen as ambivalent, much which policies that were perceived as demo - like the issue of democratic reforms at large: cratising failed to bring about lasting, mean - what had become a paradigm was then eva - ingful change. The resilience of the Arab luated critically; 7 what was initially seen as world’s incumbents thus became a major re - a democratic opening was subsequently search focus: a combination of legitimation perceived as waves of liberalisation and de- strategies, patronage and repression was liberalisation. 8 Despite some euphoria most often identified. Indeed, the holding of amidst what was labelled the ‘Arab Spring,’ elections was often controlled by restrictive most analysts have stepped on the breaks party and electoral laws, gerrymandering, regarding systemic change being an inevi - vote-buying and repression against the oppo - table result in the countries of the region. sition and could thus only with great difficulty With different states taking different trajec - be seen as benchmark for democratisation. tories – ranging from revolution to violent Many changes, after closer examination, conflict – Jordan and Morocco have taken were then seen as cosmetic ones at best, if relatively similar paths. Indeed, be it by dis - not deceit. solving, banning or reintroducing parliament or holding early elections, relief can be Along these lines the study of political insti - achieved for those in power, as the mecha - tutions under non-democratic rule arose in nism of a ‘safety valve’ stresses. Rabat held 1 A term coined by Samuel Huntington. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies , 1968. 2 Schlumberger, Opening Old Bottles in Search of New Wine , 2010, 233. 3 See for a critical assessment Anderson, Searching Where the Light Shines , 2006. 4 A term coined by Francis Fukuyama. Fukuyama, The End of History? , 1989. 5 Bunce, Subversive Institutions , 1999. 6 Which relates to the inclusion of actors like Islamists, causing the moderation of their positions. This phe nomenon was examined, among others, by Asseburg, Moderate Islamisten als Reformakteure , 2007. This moderation-inclusion paradigm was challenged recently by Shadi Hamid and his analysis of the cases of Egypt and Jordan: Hamid, Temptations of Power , 2014. 7 Carothers, The End of the Transition Paradigm , 2002, 6-9. 8 Brumberg, The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy , 2002. Deutsches Orient-Institut 5 Elections in Jordan and Morocco early general elections in late November system – especially when dealing with mon - 2011 and local and regional elections in archies in which the king pulls