The Global Flow of Aluminum From 2006 Through 2025 By W.D. Menzie, JJ Barry, D.I. Bleiwas, E.L. Bray, T.G. Goonan, and Grecia Matos Open-File Report 2010–1256 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2010 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment— visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Menzie, W.D., Barry, JJ, Bleiwas, D.I., Bray, E.L., Goonan, T.G., and Matos, Grecia, 2010, The global flow of aluminum from 2006 through 2025: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1256, 73 p., available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1256/. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 2. Background and Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Life Cycle of Aluminum ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Previous Studies............................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Methods of Present Study ................................................................................................................................ 6 3. Findings .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1. Global Mass Flows of Aluminum ...................................................................................................................... 9 3.1.1. Macro-Level Flows of Aluminum—Production ........................................................................................... 9 3.1.1.1. Bauxite ................................................................................................................................................ 9 3.1.1.2. Alumina ..............................................................................................................................................10 3.1.1.3. Aluminum ...........................................................................................................................................11 3.1.2. Micro-Level Flows of Materials Associated with Aluminum Production .....................................................14 3.1.2.1. Bauxite Mining ....................................................................................................................................15 3.1.2.2. Alumina Production (Refining) ............................................................................................................17 3.1.2.3. Aluminum Smelting and Electrolysis ..................................................................................................20 3.1.2.3.1. Aluminum Smelting and Electrolysis—Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................................30 3.1.2.3.2. Aluminum Smelting and Electrolysis—Generation of PFCs (Anode Events) ...............................34 3.1.2.3.3. Industry Performance Goals ........................................................................................................34 3.1.2.4. Materials Inputs to and Outputs from Secondary Aluminum Production ............................................34 3.1.3. Global Mass Flows of Aluminum—Consumption ......................................................................................36 3.1.3.1. Consumption—Overview ....................................................................................................................36 3.1.3.2. Consumption—End Uses ...................................................................................................................38 3.1.3.2.1. Consumption for Transportation—Light Vehicles.........................................................................40 3.1.3.2.2. Consumption for Transportation—Aircraft ...................................................................................44 3.1.3.2.3. Consumption for Transportation—Railcars ..................................................................................46 3.1.3.2.4. Consumption for Transportation—Final Thoughts .......................................................................46 3.2. Future Global Mass Flows of Aluminum ..........................................................................................................46 3.2.1. Short- to Medium-Term Production Forecasts ..........................................................................................46 3.2.1.1. Bauxite ...............................................................................................................................................47 3.2.1.2. Aluminum ...........................................................................................................................................47 3.2.2. Long-Term Production Forecasts..............................................................................................................48 3.2.2.1. The Model for Forecasting Long-Term Aluminum Consumption ........................................................48 3.2.3. Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................................51 4. Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................................54 4.1. Methods of Present Study (2.3) .......................................................................................................................54 4.2. Macro-Level Flows (3.1.1) ...............................................................................................................................54 4.3. Micro-Level Flows (3.1.2) ...............................................................................................................................54 4.4. Consumption (3.1.3) ........................................................................................................................................54 4.5. Future Global Mass Flows of Aluminum (3.2) ..................................................................................................55 4.5.1. Short- to Medium-Term Forecasts (3.2.1) .................................................................................................55 4.5.2. Long-Term Forecasts (3.2.2) ....................................................................................................................55 4.5.3. Implications of the Forecasts (3.2.3) .........................................................................................................55 5. References Cited ...................................................................................................................................................57 6. Appendixes ............................................................................................................................................................61 ii Figures 1. Diagram showing the global flow (life cycle) of aluminum in 2006 .................................................................... 5 2. Diagram showing a typical process flow for bauxite mining .............................................................................16 3. Diagram showing selected materials flows for a World bauxite mine model ....................................................17 4. Diagram showing a typical process flow for alumina refining ...........................................................................19 5. Diagram showing selected materials flows under the European and World alumina refinery models .............20 6. Diagram showing a typical process flow for aluminum smelting ......................................................................21 7. Diagram showing selected materials flows for the anode-making process of model European and World plants ..............................................................................................................................................22 8. Bar chart showing air emissions for the anode-making process of model European and World plants ...........23 9. Bar chart showing externally recycled waste products for the anode-making process of model European and World plants ..................................................................................................................24