Resilient Geelong: Reasons for success and challenges for a post-COVID-19 future Research paper prepared for the Committee for Geelong, November 2020 Dr Louise C. Johnson, Dr Meg Mundell & Rebecca Bartel Deakin University CRICOS Code: 00113B 1 RESILIENT GEELONG - 2020 This working research paper was written by: Professor Louise C. Johnson, Honorary Professor, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University (lead author and primary researcher) Dr Meg Mundell, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University (co-author and research contributor) Rebecca Bartel, Deakin University (Chair, Committee for Geelong Research Working Group). Acknowledgements We wish to thank the Committee for Geelong and its Research Working Group for the opportunity to conduct this research and for the weekly ‘catch ups’, which have provided invaluable input as well as a critical sounding board for this research. In addition, Hayley Ince from the City of Greater Geelong generously provided electronic access to data that forms the basis of Parts 1 and 2. Thank you also to Sarah Bugg from Deakin University for assistance with editing. Finally, we wish to thank Jennifer Cromarty Chief Executive Officer of the Committee for Geelong who has given thoughtful advice and relevant material over the course of this project. This working paper may be cited as Johnson, L., Mundell, M., Bartel, R. (2020). Resilient Geelong: Reasons for Success and Challenges for a post-COVID-19 Future. Geelong: Committee for Geelong Disclaimer of liability Deakin University has taken reasonable measures to ensure this information is correct at time of publication, but gives no guarantee or warranty that the content is up-to-date, complete or accurate and accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material. To the extent permitted by law Deakin excludes liability for any and all loss caused by use of or reliance on this information. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Committee for Geelong, the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation or Deakin University. Please note there is the potential for minor revisions in the working research paper. Please check the online version at www.committeeforgeelong.com.au Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B 2 RESILIENT GEELONG - 2020 We wish to acknowledge the Wadawurrung, Wurundjeri, Woi Wurrung, and Bunurong peoples of the Kulin nations, the traditional owners of the lands on which this research was conducted. We pay our respects to their Country and to their Elders: past, present and future. 3 RESILIENT GEELONG - 2020 Contents OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 1. REGIONAL RESILIENCE AND TRANSFORMATION OF GEELONG’S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ................................................ 7 1.1. The Nature of Regional Resilience ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.2. Transformation of Geelong’s Economic Structure .................................................................................................. 10 1.3. Manufacturing Sector ............................................................................................................................................. 13 1.4. Retail Sector ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 1.5. Healthcare Sector ................................................................................................................................................... 22 1.6. Education and Training Sector ................................................................................................................................ 25 1.7. Visitor Economy and Tourism Sector ...................................................................................................................... 28 1.8. Public Administration and Safety Sector ................................................................................................................. 30 1.9. Professional and Scientific Services Sector ............................................................................................................. 32 1.10. Transport Sector ..................................................................................................................................................... 33 1.11. Energy, Water and Waste Sector ............................................................................................................................ 34 1.12. Creative Industries .................................................................................................................................................. 37 2. WHY IS GEELONG RESILIENT?........................................................................................................................................... 40 2.1. Population Growth .................................................................................................................................................. 41 2.2. Government Policy ................................................................................................................................................. 44 2.3. Community Leadership ........................................................................................................................................... 52 2.4. Summary of Findings (Parts 1 and 2) ...................................................................................................................... 55 2.5. Preliminary Recommendations (Parts 1 and 2) ...................................................................................................... 56 3. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES TO COVID-19: IDEAS AND EXEMPLARS FOR GEELONG ...................................................... 57 3.1. Global Trends .......................................................................................................................................................... 57 3.2. Local Business, Employment and Work .................................................................................................................. 59 3.3. Public Space, Transport and Urban Planning .......................................................................................................... 69 3.4. Green Recovery and Sustainability ......................................................................................................................... 74 3.5. Affordable Housing, Social Housing and Homelessness ......................................................................................... 78 3.6. Health and Social Inclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 80 3.7. Arts, Culture and Creative Industries ...................................................................................................................... 83 3.8. Summary of Findings (Part 3) .................................................................................................................................. 85 3.9. Preliminary Recommendations (Part 3) .................................................................................................................. 85 4. IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON GEELONG .............................................................................................................................. 87 4.1. National and State Economic Trends ...................................................................................................................... 87 4.2. Before COVID-19: Geelong in 2019 ......................................................................................................................... 88 4.3. After COVID-19: Geelong in 2020 ........................................................................................................................... 89 4.4. Looking Ahead ........................................................................................................................................................ 92 FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................................................................................. 94 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................................... 96 APPENDIX A: RESOURCES AND TOOLS ............................................................................................................................... 108 APPENDIX B: SEARCH TERMS ............................................................................................................................................. 111 APPENDIX C: GEELONG SECTORAL AND ORGANISATIONAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES ...................................................... 112 APPENDIX D: THE MAIN AUTOMOTIVE GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS .................................................................................. 115 4 RESILIENT GEELONG - 2020 Overview The City of Greater Geelong is a local government area located on Corio Bay, 75